Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
152 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

Valid 00Z Sat 06 Dec 2025 - 00Z Sat 13 Dec 2025

A cold front in association with a deep trough and cutoff low 
west of the state should weaken and retrograde as an easterly wave
this weekend. Heavy rainfall along the front is likely to remain 
west of the main islands though wind speeds across the entire 
island chain, especially the western islands, look moderate to 
gusty today/Friday. Winds should moderate back to normal easterly
trades by the weekend with the usual windward shower paradigm
expected. A compact cut off low will meander east and northeast 
of the state as late as Wednesday but is forecast to have minimal,
if any, impact on precipitation amounts across Hawai'i. 

Another cold front will get close the western main islands mid to
late next week at the leading edge of a positively tilted trough;
there remains some timing uncertainty with the 00z GFS a slow 
outlier while the 00z ECMWF is the quickest. While the consensus 
is quicker, the upstream ridge is full latitude (particularly 
within ensemble mean solutions) and could allow for a slower 
solution like the GFS to materialize; an intermediate solution is
advised.

Roth