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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1212Z Dec 05, 2017)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
712 AM EST Tue Dec 05 2017

Valid 00Z Wed Dec 06 2017 - 00Z Wed Dec 13 2017

Individual shortwaves embedded within a persistent east-central
Pacific trough aloft will support a series of approaching/passing
fronts.  Guidance shows reasonable agreement with important
features relative to typical forecast error at the time frame of
interest.

The first front is currently moving through the islands with
relatively light rainfall.  In its wake strong
northerly/northeasterly winds will trend lighter and more variable
in direction by Wednesday-Thursday as high pressure to the
west-northwest extends a narrow ridge over the islands.  Expect
the next front and associated light/scattered rainfall to approach
from the north on Thursday-Friday but likely not reach any farther
south than the northwestern islands.  Immediately following will
be a stronger front during the weekend, again with fairly light
rainfall in spite of more pronounced upper support.  With some
typical model spread for exact location, this front should stall
in the vicinity of the Big Island by Sunday.  Guidance shows the
last front of the forecast period reaching the state next Tuesday,
and generally agreeing that this front will be accompanied by
somewhat more moisture/organized rainfall than the preceding
fronts.  Current signals are that rainfall may still not be heavy
in absolute terms though.

Rausch