Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Jan 15 2025 - 00Z Wed Jan 22 2025

Expect a typical trade pattern through Wednesday with showers
favoring windward/mountain areas.  Aside from typical
smaller-scale detail differences, today's guidance is agreeable
with the front forecast to cross the main islands during
Thursday-Friday, disrupting trades for a time.  Models continue to
show the heaviest rain staying to the north of the area but
instability/height falls aloft may still be sufficient to produce
some pockets of heavy rainfall as the front passes through.  A
second front is still likely to reach the area during the weekend,
with trailing high pressure supporting brisk northeasterly winds
from Sunday into Monday. Guidance continues to show precipitable
water values somewhat on the drier side of normal from the weekend
into early next week as upper ridging builds in, keeping most
showers fairly light.  By next Tuesday there is some spread among
the models/means for how much upper troughing may approach from
the northwest, with effects on the leading surface front and winds
over the state.  Overall most guidance shows more troughing than
the 00Z GFS, leading to a better defined approaching front and
trades becoming lighter from the east on Tuesday versus the
northeasterly winds in the GFS.

Rausch