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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1214Z Dec 06, 2017)
 
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Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 AM EST Wed Dec 06 2017

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 07 2017 - 00Z Thu Dec 14 2017

Guidance continues to indicate that a series of features within a
persistent east-central Pacific trough aloft will support the
approach and in most cases passage of multiple fronts during the
period.  There is reasonable agreement in forecast details until
some spread arises by next Tuesday-Wednesday.

High pressure to the west-northwest of the state will extend a
narrow ridge over the region over the next couple days, leading to
fairly light winds.  A front will approach from the north on
Thursday but most likely stay just north of the northern islands. 
The next front will have stronger upper support and progress
through the state during the weekend.  These fronts should be
accompanied by fairly light rainfall even with the possibility
that some moisture may linger near the Big Island into early next
week.  The last front to affect the state will come through in the
Tuesday-Wednesday time frame.  Primary model differences involve
the 00z/06z GFS runs becoming more amplified on the southeast side
of the upper trough, leading to a farther southeast progression of
the front.  The 00z GEFS mean is a little more amplified with the
trough than remaining guidance but otherwise aligns better with
the 00z ECMWF/CMC and their ensemble means.  Even within the
preferred non-GFS majority scenario, there are some moisture and
frontal timing differences that will take some time to be
resolved.  Stronger dynamics than with preceding fronts seem to
favor a compromise for accompanying rainfall, between the 00z
ECMWF and wetter GEFS/ECMWF means and 12z/05 ECMWF.

Rausch