Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center



Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1208Z Mar 10, 2018)
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 AM EST Sat Mar 10 2018

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 11 2018 - 00Z Sun Mar 18 2018

...Heavy rain likely next week...

With a 1040mb high near 40N/180 Saturday afternoon moving just
south of eastward, pressure gradient will keep trades brisk even
as the high weakens to about 1030mb by Tuesday afternoon. To the
south, sharpening mid-level energy and an associated weak surface
low or at least trough axis should lift northeastward just west of
or near Hawai'i. With precipitable water values about 1.75 inches
but perhaps nearing 2 inches (which is about +2 to +4 standard
deviations) moderate to heavy rainfall is likely for at least part
of the region next Tue-Fri. The GFS/ECMWF differ on the location
and amount of rainfall but ingredients will be in place. By next
Saturday, models/ensembles show another upper trough or closed low
near 25N/180 which should allow heights over Hawai'i to rise,
helping to diminish the heavy rain threat.