Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
   Satellite Images
   National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Accomplishments
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1834Z May 29, 2016)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID MAY 29/1200 UTC THRU JUN 02/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES/CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.


STRENGTHENING SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NRN PLAINS TUE/WED
CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD TX
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES BY NEW ENGLAND
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THESE SYSTEMS, SO
PREFER A COMPROMISE OF THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE IN THE CAROLINAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SEE NHC ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS

THE 12Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN BEST MIRROR THE 15Z NHC
FORECAST FOR BONNIE.  REFER TO DISCUSSIONS AND BULLETINS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND
FORECAST REASONING.


www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ROTH