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Model Diagnostics Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0643Z Jun 29, 2016)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2016

VALID JUN 29/0000 UTC THRU JUL 02/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

SHORTWAVE/SURFACE WAVE CURRENTLY IN NEW ENGLAND LIFTING INTO SE
CANADA BY THURS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

MODELS ARE IN STRONGER AGREEMENT WITH THE LEADING WAVE THOUGH THE
GFS IS NOW A BIT SLOWER THAN THE SUITE OPPOSITE OF ITS POSITION
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...AND RESULTS IN A STRONGER SURFACE
REFLECTION CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SE NEW ENGLAND THUR.
 STILL THROUGH THE DEPTH THE MODEL SPREAD IS VERY MINOR TO SUPPORT
AN OPERATIONAL MODEL BLEND AT ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.


SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY THUR/FRI AND NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC FRI/SAT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-CMC BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

AS THE ARCTIC SHORTWAVE TROF DESCENDS...A CENTRAL PIVOT/FULCRUM
VORT CENTER ANCHORS AROUND THE N ONTARIO COASTLINE SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY SE AS THE ENERGY AT THE BASE ACCELERATES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES THUR/FRI.  THE 12Z ECMWF SUPPORTED BY ITS 12Z ECENS
MEAN SHOWS A REDUCED/WEAKER PIVOT AND IS MORE OF AN OPEN TROF
TOWARD A STRONGER CENTER FURTHER NORTH... THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER
OVERALL SURFACE REFLECTION WHERE THE BEST CLUSTERING AND GENERALLY
WEAKER SURFACE FRONT THAN THE REST OF THE SUITE.  STILL THE
SHAPE/TIMING LOOK FAIRLY AGREEABLE TO THE NAM/GFS/UKMET THROUGH
THE LIFE CYCLE...JUST SOMETHING TO NOTE.  THE 12Z CMC IS THE MAIN
OUTLIER RESULTING A WEAK PIVOT LOW IN FAVOR OF A ROBUST BASE
(WHICH IS A TYPICAL BIAS) WHICH RESULTS IN A BROADER MORE ROUNDED
MASS FIELD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SAT.   AS
SUCH WILL SUPPORT A NON-CMC BLEND BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN
REMAINING SOLUTION WITHIN THE BLEND IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF VARIATION IN THE HEIGHT/PRESSURE FIELDS
(PARTICULARLY THE WEAK ECWMF).  OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE
GIVEN GOOD TIMING.    


EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE(S)/SHEAR AXIS WITHIN THE SW US
ANTICYCLONE...EJECTS A SERIES OF WAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  COINCIDENT SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE
FROM CENTRAL PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF/UKMET BLEND
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE

THE DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE/MCS
DROPPING OUT OF NW FLOW IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON THOUGH IT IS
GENERALLY WEAK OVERALL THOUGH THE ECMWF/CMC CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
LOW THAT IS TUCKED UP TO THE TERRAIN MORE SO THAN THE 00Z NAM/GFS
AND UKMET.

A SHORTWAVE/SHEAR AXIS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SOUTHWEST US
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO SHED SHORTWAVE ENERGY TROUGH
THE RIDGE EJECTING ITS ENTIRETY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN PIECES
STARTING THURS EVENING AND FRIDAY... BEFORE ADDITIONAL ENERGY ON
THE WESTERN END OF THE EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE GULF/N MEXICO
DEVELOPS A STRONGER WAVE IN NEW MEXICO BY SAT.  MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENERGY IS REINFORCED BY THE CONVECTIVE TIDE AND THEREFORE THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN VARIATION WITH THESE WAVES...
RESULTING IN DIFFERENT QPF PATTERNS FOR THE RESULTING MCS IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EACH EVENING  (PLEASE REFER TO THE QPFPFD FOR QPF
PREFERENCES).  AS FOR THE MASS PREFERENCE;  THE NAM IS A BIT
STRONGER AND FAVORS A FURTHER SW ELONGATION OF THE SHEAR AXIS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY DAY 3.  THE 12Z CMC ALSO DOES NOT MATCH
WELL WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN/FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.   CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE SCATTER
OF THE SHORTWAVES IN TIMING...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN/ORIENTATION
OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND MCS TRACK/ZONE WITHIN A 00Z GFS AND 12Z
ECMWF/UKMET BLEND. 


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GALLINA