Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2015
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 30 2015 - 12Z Wed Dec 02 2015
...Wintry Precipitation expected to impact portions of the Plains to the
...Heavy Rain likely from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Northeast...
...Flash flooding possible across portions of the Tennessee Valley and
Southern Appalachians Monday and Tuesday...
A deep upper level cyclone moving out of the Rockies today will allow for
the development of an area of surface low pressure across the Southern
High Plains. This low, and its associated front, will track northeastward
across the Central Plains today, reaching the Upper Midwest by Tuesday.
This storm is expected to produce heavy snow over parts of the Central and
Northern Plains and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Winter storm
watches, warnings, and advisories are in place with the WPC winter weather
desk forecasting 6 to 12 inches of snow in these areas, with higher
amounts up to 15 inches possible for southwest Minnesota. Light freezing
rain accumulations up to a tenth of an inch will also be possible on
Monday from northeast Kansas to central Wisconsin. As the system lifts
into southern Canada late Tuesday, the heavy snow will come to an end, but
some lingering lighter snowfall is possible across the Upper Great Lakes
states into Wednesday.
Ahead of this, a lingering stationary boundary draped through the
southeast quadrant of the country will eventually become absorbed into the
stronger system behind it by Monday night. Heavy rainfall will continue to
develop along the boundaries from the Lower Mississippi Valley, across the
Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys, and into the Mid-Atlantic states over
the next several days. There is a slight risk for flash flooding across
the Tennessee Valley on Monday, and the Southern Appalachians on Tuesday.
As the frontal boundary pushes into the Eastern states late Tuesday, rain
will begin to develop across the Southeast and Northeast states as well.
Out west, a series of upper level systems will move onshore off the east
Pacific. This will allow for rain and higher elevation snow showers across
the Pacific Northwest on Monday, spreading to the upper Great
Basin/northern Rockies by Tuesday. Light to moderate snow accumulations
may be possible in the higher terrain of western British Columbia as well
as the Washington Cascades.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php