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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0805Z Nov 30, 2015)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 305 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2015 Valid 12Z Mon Nov 30 2015 - 12Z Wed Dec 02 2015 ...Wintry Precipitation expected to impact portions of the Plains to the Upper Midwest... ...Heavy Rain likely from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Northeast... ...Flash flooding possible across portions of the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians Monday and Tuesday... A deep upper level cyclone moving out of the Rockies today will allow for the development of an area of surface low pressure across the Southern High Plains. This low, and its associated front, will track northeastward across the Central Plains today, reaching the Upper Midwest by Tuesday. This storm is expected to produce heavy snow over parts of the Central and Northern Plains and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Winter storm watches, warnings, and advisories are in place with the WPC winter weather desk forecasting 6 to 12 inches of snow in these areas, with higher amounts up to 15 inches possible for southwest Minnesota. Light freezing rain accumulations up to a tenth of an inch will also be possible on Monday from northeast Kansas to central Wisconsin. As the system lifts into southern Canada late Tuesday, the heavy snow will come to an end, but some lingering lighter snowfall is possible across the Upper Great Lakes states into Wednesday. Ahead of this, a lingering stationary boundary draped through the southeast quadrant of the country will eventually become absorbed into the stronger system behind it by Monday night. Heavy rainfall will continue to develop along the boundaries from the Lower Mississippi Valley, across the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys, and into the Mid-Atlantic states over the next several days. There is a slight risk for flash flooding across the Tennessee Valley on Monday, and the Southern Appalachians on Tuesday. As the frontal boundary pushes into the Eastern states late Tuesday, rain will begin to develop across the Southeast and Northeast states as well. Out west, a series of upper level systems will move onshore off the east Pacific. This will allow for rain and higher elevation snow showers across the Pacific Northwest on Monday, spreading to the upper Great Basin/northern Rockies by Tuesday. Light to moderate snow accumulations may be possible in the higher terrain of western British Columbia as well as the Washington Cascades. Santorelli Graphics available at