Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 25 2018 - 12Z Wed Jun 27 2018
...A risk of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will exist across the
Plains and into the Mississippi Valley the next few days...
...Heavy rain expected over the Carolinas...
A stationary front will stretch from the central Plains to the Carolinas
over the next few days and will be the focal point for convective
activity. On Monday, heavy rainfall will develop along a surface low that
will lift from the central Plains to the Mississippi Valley. A cold front
pushing southeast across Oklahoma will also assist in firing off
thunderstorms by this afternoon. Meanwhile, the stationary front draped
along the Carolinas into the Tennessee Valley will provide focus for heavy
rainfall--increasing in coverage by this afternoon. These areas of
convection will continue overnight--with heavy rainfall likely in the mid
to lower Mississippi Valley. As the surface continues to slowly move
eastward into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will
advance into the Upper Great Lakes and western portions of the Tennessee
Valley. A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is expected for both Monday
and Tuesday mostly across portions of the middle Mississippi Valley and
western parts of the Ohio Valley. Flash flooding will also be a threat for
these areas in addition to some areas of the southern Plains.
Heavy rainfall will be continuous across the Carolinas beginning Monday
afternoon and lasting through the rest of the short term period. As the
stationary front is draped across these states, tropical moisture and
instability will fuel convection through Wednesday. Flash flooding will be
a concern through the short term period. Severe weather will also be a
threat, though only for today.
Seasonably cool weather will be in place across the northern and central
Plains in addition to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today. In fact, high
temperatures will be almost 10-15 degrees below normal especially in South
Dakota/Nebraska along with Maine and the interior of New England. By
Tuesday, temperatures will rebound to near normal for the Plains.
However, temperatures will still be cooler than normal for the Northeast
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php