Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Jul 14 2025 - 12Z Wed Jul 16 2025

...Widespread heavy rainfall with the potential for numerous instances of
flash flooding along the I-95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic Monday...

...Heavy rainfall and flash flood threat for Florida Monday-Tuesday...

...Increasing thunderstorm chances across portions of the north-central
U.S. with flash flooding and severe weather expected Tuesday...

...Uncomfortable heat remains in place across much of the eastern and
western U.S....

A moisture-rich Summer-time airmass remains in place ahead of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped from the Northeast southwest
through the Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valleys and into the southern
Plains/Texas, continuing to promote widespread daily thunderstorm
development with heavy rainfall. For Monday, the greatest coverage of
storms is expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic including the I-95
corridor between the greater DC area and northern New Jersey, where a
Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) is now in effect. The
combination of near climatological maxima moisture values promoting very
efficient downpours/high rain rates and slow-moving/possibly training
thunderstorms ahead of the front will lead to heavy rainfall totals and
potentially numerous instances of flash flooding, especially for urban
areas. A broader Slight Risk (level 2/4) covers much of the rest of the
Mid-Atlantic where more scattered instances of flash flooding are
expected. A Slight Risk is also in place across portions of central Texas
where antecedent conditions remain more sensitive to additional rain given
recent rainfall and flooding. More isolated flash flooding concerns are
expected along the remainder of the boundary. The front will make little
progress on Tuesday, with another round of storms expected across portions
of the southern Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians, where a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect. Areas to the west should see some drier
conditions, though storms and isolated flash flooding will remain possible
across the Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys.

Thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall are also expected over portions of
the central and southern Florida Peninsula where the National Hurricane
Center is monitoring a trough of low pressure along the Atlantic Coast,
expected to move westward into the Gulf over the next couple of days.
Regardless of any further development, an environment favorable for
thunderstorms with plentiful moisture for torrential downpours will lead
to a flash flooding risk. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall are in effect
both Monday and Tuesday, with the current greatest potential for flash
flooding in South Florida on Monday.

A wavy frontal boundary across the Upper-Midwest and northern
Plains/Rockies will be reinforced by additional colder air and short-wave
energy the next couple of days with increasing thunderstorm chances. Some
isolated flash flooding is possible Monday, with thunderstorms generally
confined to areas in vicinity of the Canadian border. Then, on Tuesday,
more widespread thunderstorms are expected throughout the region. Mean
flow more parallel to the boundary and increasing moisture will bring the
chance of some training/repeated rounds of thunderstorms with heavy
downpours across portions of the Upper Midwest into the Upper Missouri
Valley, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for scattered flash
flooding. More isolated instances of flash flooding can be expected
elsewhere. In addition, some severe weather will be possible, with a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) from the Storm Prediction Center across
southeastern South Dakota into north-central Nebraska, mainly for the
threat of large hail and damaging winds. Elsewhere, monsoonal moisture
will continue to bring thunderstorm chances to areas of the Southwest/Four
Corners region. The greatest chance for flash flooding will be on Tuesday
in southeastern Arizona where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been
introduced.  

Forecast high temperatures remain hot across much of the West Monday under
the influence of an upper-level high. Areas of Major Heat Risk (level 3/4)
are in place over portions of the interior Pacific Northwest/Great Basin,
central California Valleys, and Desert Southwest, indicating a level of
heat dangerous to anyone without access to adequate air conditioning or
hydration, and heat-related advisories and warnings are in place. There is
also a Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) across portions of
interior Washington Monday, and then the central Great Basin Tuesday. A
cold front will bring some relief to areas of the interior Pacific
Northwest/northern Great Basin Tuesday as highs fall below Summer-time
averages. Highs will remain cooler along the immediate Pacific Coast,
though areas of the Pacific Northwest will see hotter, above average highs
by Tuesday. Forecast highs remain hot and muggy across much of the eastern
U.S., with conditions worsening into the week, beginning in the Southeast.
Areas of Major Heat Risk are expected with heat-related advisories in
place. Temperatures remain below average across the Southern Plains with
widespread clouds and precipitation in place, while areas of the
central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest will see hotter Summer
temperatures Monday. In contrast, the cold front pushing southward over
portions of the northern Rockies/Plains on Tuesday will be almost
Fall-like. Forecast highs fall into the 60s for many locations, with some
50s for areas of the Rockies, upwards of 25-35 degrees below average for
mid-July.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php