Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 18 2014 - 12Z Sun Apr 20 2014

...Heavy rainfall is likely across the Southeastern U.S. through
Saturday...

...A potential for severe weather exists across Central Florida on
Friday...


The upper pattern being featured across the country will consist of a
split flow with both the northern and southern streams being fairly
active. The major system to impact the United States the next couple of
days will be an upper trof amplifying across the Eastern Gulf Coast. Ample
moisture is forecast to surge northward ahead of the developing system
which will set the stages for heavy rainfall across the Southeastern U.S.
The WPC precipitation forecast suggests amounts of 2 to 4 inches of rain
across Southern Georgia along with the Florida panhandle through Saturday
morning. Heavier convective elements may lead to regions of flash flooding
given such high rainfall rates and slow motions. Additionally, the Storm
Prediction Center is advertising a threat for severe weather across
Central Florida on Friday where sufficient instability and favorable
turning of the winds with height will be present. The slow moving nature
of the upper low will maintain a chance of rain through early Sunday,
particularly for the coastal locations across Georgia and the Carolinas.

The other system within the southern stream will be less pronounced than
its counterpart further downstream but will still affect the Four Corners
Region and Southern High Plains. Broad ascent ahead of the upper trof
combined with moisture returning from the Western Gulf should keep
unsettled conditions in the forecast. Terrain is expected to play a role
in placing localized higher amounts. With the exception of the higher
elevations across the San Juans, this will be an all liquid precipitation
event.

Looking to the northern branch of the jet, it will also be rather active
as a train of systems slide eastward. A Pacific system currently migrating
into the Upper Intermountain West will continue tracking due east reaching
the Northern High Plains by late Friday night. It appears much of wintry
aspects of this developing system should be confined to north of the
international border with Canada. By Saturday some of the wintry mix
consisting of freezing rain may impact northeastern portions of Minnesota.
Otherwise, expect rain to dominate with high temperatures to prevail in
the 50s and 60s the next couple of days.

Conditions across the northeastern section of the country should be rather
quiet as a surface ridge remains centered over the region. With the system
developing across Northeastern Gulf, surface high pressure wedged east of
the Appalachians will provide cool conditions with highs in the 50s on
Friday before rebounding into the 60s by early in the weekend. 


Rubin-Oster


Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php