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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0806Z Jun 25, 2018)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 406 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 25 2018 - 12Z Wed Jun 27 2018 ...A risk of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will exist across the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley the next few days... ...Heavy rain expected over the Carolinas... A stationary front will stretch from the central Plains to the Carolinas over the next few days and will be the focal point for convective activity. On Monday, heavy rainfall will develop along a surface low that will lift from the central Plains to the Mississippi Valley. A cold front pushing southeast across Oklahoma will also assist in firing off thunderstorms by this afternoon. Meanwhile, the stationary front draped along the Carolinas into the Tennessee Valley will provide focus for heavy rainfall--increasing in coverage by this afternoon. These areas of convection will continue overnight--with heavy rainfall likely in the mid to lower Mississippi Valley. As the surface continues to slowly move eastward into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will advance into the Upper Great Lakes and western portions of the Tennessee Valley. A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is expected for both Monday and Tuesday mostly across portions of the middle Mississippi Valley and western parts of the Ohio Valley. Flash flooding will also be a threat for these areas in addition to some areas of the southern Plains. Heavy rainfall will be continuous across the Carolinas beginning Monday afternoon and lasting through the rest of the short term period. As the stationary front is draped across these states, tropical moisture and instability will fuel convection through Wednesday. Flash flooding will be a concern through the short term period. Severe weather will also be a threat, though only for today. Seasonably cool weather will be in place across the northern and central Plains in addition to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today. In fact, high temperatures will be almost 10-15 degrees below normal especially in South Dakota/Nebraska along with Maine and the interior of New England. By Tuesday, temperatures will rebound to near normal for the Plains. However, temperatures will still be cooler than normal for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Reinhart Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php