Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Jun 16 2025 - 12Z Wed Jun 18 2025

...Flash flooding possible across portions of
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Central Appalachians/Kentucky on Monday and the
Central Appalachians/Central Plains/Midwest Tuesday...

...Severe thunderstorms possible for portions of the Northern/Central
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley Monday, Central Plains Tuesday, and
Midwest/Great Lakes Wednesday...

...Fire weather threat for the Great Basin/Southwest on Monday and
southeast Arizona/western New Mexico on Tuesday...the Southwest sees
significant heat...

The general flow pattern features troughing across portions of the Midwest
through Wednesday which should keep much of the country east of the
Rockies and east of the Southern Plains unsettled.  The mean trough will
be composed of two pieces -- an initial trough that shears out of the Ohio
Valley and northwest Gulf Coast, and a kicker disturbance that travels
through the West and Central Plains into the Corn Belt Wednesday.  The
kicker disturbance will cause the warm core ridge in New Mexico and
ridging across the Northern Plains to weaken by Tuesday, with ridging
rebounding in the Desert Southwest on Wednesday.

Near and ahead of the Ohio Valley to western Gulf coast upper level trough
will lie a quasi-stationary front which will provide the focus for
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall Monday and Tuesday across areas with
soils that have become increasingly saturated over recent days.  The
highest flash flood risk on Monday lies near Kentucky, the Central
Appalachians, Virginia, and North Carolina on Monday.  On Tuesday, the
flash flood threat becomes more restricted in the Central Appalachians. 
On Wednesday, the risk lessens as the front/focus for the most active
thunderstorm activity lifts northeast through New England.

As a progressive, kicker disturbance moves through the West, it leads to a
fire weather risk on Monday across portions of the Great Basin, Columbia
Basin, and Colorado Rockies before its weak cold front attempts to move
through the area Tuesday.  The fire weather threat then shifts towards
southeast Arizona and western New Mexico on Tuesday.  Severe weather is in
the offing for Monday across portions of the Northern & Central Plains and
Upper Mississippi Valley as the disturbance aloft helps to flatten the
ridging which previously existed across the region.  Its front will focus
the highest flash flood risk Tuesday across the Central Plains/Midwest. 
As it continues its trek eastward and its front sags south, the highest
severe weather threat shifts south more solidly into the Central Plains on
Tuesday and onward into the Midwest/Great Lakes on Wednesday.

An upper level ridge over New Mexico will lead to another day of
significant heat across the Southwest on Monday before it weakens on
Tuesday taking the edge off of the heat briefly, before rebounding across
the Desert Southwest on Wednesday leading to renewed heat.  Record high
temperatures could be tied of exceeded in spots on Monday.  Heat
advisories remain in effect across portions of southern New Mexico and far
west Texas on Monday and Tuesday, with Extreme Heat Warnings continuing
for southern Arizona and far southeast California on Monday.  This is the
region with the highest odds of 100F+ high temperatures, with 110F+
expected for another day in the Desert Southwest, and 120F+ in Death
Valley on Monday and Wednesday.

Roth

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php