Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 07 2026 - 00Z Wed Sep 09 2026

...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the Southeast and
Plains States for the remainder of the Labor Day weekend; Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall today in Iowa...

...Cool and unsettled weather will progress through the Great Basin and
Intermountain West with heavy rain emerging across northwestern Montana on
Labor Day, followed by strong thunderstorms across the Northern Plains
Tuesday...

...Heat persists across the midsection of the country while cooler air
expands further into the West Coast and the Northeast...

A frontal boundary bisecting the Central and Southern U.S. continues to
slowly press southward, and is expected to eventually stall as it
encounters the heat dome anchored over the country's midsection. Behind
the front, much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic can enjoy a break from
the heat as high temperatures only reach into the mid-70s and low-80s for
the next couple of afternoons. Morning lows dropping into the 40s and 50s
will bring a first taste of Fall across New England. West of the boundary,
showers and thunderstorms are on deck this afternoon as the leading edge
of the front encounters a moist and unstable airmass on the periphery of
the Plains heat dome. Isolated to scattered severe weather and heavy
rainfall are possible this afternoon with any storms that develop across
portions of the lower Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Central/Northern
Plains. Within this broad area, however, a corridor of enhanced flash
flooding potential has emerged over western Iowa as storms containing high
rainfall rates focus over the area and lead to rainfall potentially in
excess of 5". Accordingly, this area has been upgraded to a Moderate Risk
of Excessive Rainfall today, and Flood Watches are in effect through late
tonight.  

West of the Rockies, a deep upper-level low continues to edge farther
inland across the western U.S. and support cool but unsettled weather
today and tomorrow. Heavy rainfall remains possible today over southern
Nevada and central Utah as strengthening southerly flow directs moisture
originating from Hurricane Marie to the south toward a slow-moving front.
Urban areas, as well as dry washes and burn scars will be most vulnerable
to flooding. Over the next couple of days, a low-pressure system is
forecast to gradually consolidate across the northern High Plains as the
deep upper-low edges toward the Northern Rockies. The developing storm
will interact with the anomalous moisture to yield an expansive shield of
moderate to locally heavy rain on the northern flank of the low over the
Northern Rockies. WPC is highlighting northwestern Montana for a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall on Labor Day. East of the wrap-around rainfall,
an approaching Pacific cold front could drive strong thunderstorms across
the Northern Plains, spreading eastward into the Upper Midwest, and
southward into the Central Plains ahead of the trailing cold front on
Tuesday as the maturing cyclone drifts across the Canadian Prairie.

Temperatures beneath the upper-low will be cool across the West this
weekend into the new week as daytime highs dip 10 to 25 degrees below
normal. In fact, below-freezing morning temperatures are expected across
the higher elevations as far south as northern California and the Sierra
Nevada peaks. Meanwhile, oppressive heat will continue through Labor Day
in the Nation's Heartland with the unrelenting upper-level ridge over the
nation's midsection. Heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees and record warm
overnight temperatures will be widespread across the Central/Southern
Plains States and Mississippi Valley through Labor Day and into the work
week. See WPC's Key Messages for more information on the heat, limit
afternoon outdoor activity if possible, and stay hydrated regardless of
your Labor Day plans.


Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php