Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 AM EDT Tue Jul 05 2022

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 05 2022 - 12Z Thu Jul 07 2022

...Showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall and severe weather
possible through mid week from the Northern High Plains to the East
Coast...

...Hot in the Southern & Central Plains and Southeast while milder
temperatures are expected in portions of the West/Northwest and
Northeast...

The general flow pattern features slowly retreating troughing in the
West/Northwest and an upper trough in the Northeast -- which should be the
mildest portions of the Lower 48 -- while a warm core ridge wanders and
wavers in strength between the Southern/Central Plains and Southeast,
keeping those locations hot.  Widespread Heat Advisories are in effect
from the Missouri Valley southeast to the Middle Mississippi Valley and
Mid-South (in some places through Wednesday) as the combination of high
temperatures and high humidity push heat indices closer to an
uncomfortable 105-110 degrees.  A few record highs are forecast between
the Southern Plains and Southern Appalachians.  Morning lows will remain
in the mid-70s to near 80 providing little relief from the heat overnight
-- some record high minima are expected between the ArkLaTex and Mid-South
as well as the Southern Appalachians.

A low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes to the Northeast
Coast today with trailing frontal boundaries remaining across the Midwest,
Central Plains, Northern High Plains, with more wavering seen across the
Mid-Atlantic states, leading showers and thunderstorm development through
mid week. The excessive rainfall and severe weather threat over the next
few days will be highest near the front between the Northern Continental
Divide, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and with time portions of the Mid-Atlantic
states and Carolinas as organized thunderstorms round the top of the
Plains ridge and dive down the base of the Eastern Trough, feeding off the
available high moisture and instability near a front.

Despite the nearby upper trough, the best chances of rain in the western
portion of the Lower 48 lie across portions of the Pacific Northwest and
Northern Continental Divide.  To the southeast of where the rain is
expected, SPC has highlighted a Fire Weather threat for today for portions
of the Great Basin as humidity remains low and windy conditions are
expected to persist across the area.

Roth/Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php