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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0810Z Jul 01, 2022)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 410 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 01 2022 - 12Z Sun Jul 03 2022 ...Classic summer weather pattern to take hold of most of the CONUS through the weekend and Independence Day ...Excessive Rainfall expected from the Upper Texas Coast to the central Gulf Coast, Lower Missouri Valley and portions of the Georgia South Carolina coast; Severe storms to track across portions of the Northern/Central Plains today and the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Saturday... ...Monsoonal moisture to keep producing spotty showers and storms in the Southwest and southern/central Rockies; t-storms possible in the Northwest this weekend... A classic summer weather pattern, with high pressure stretched out across the southern tier states and waves of low pressure riding across the north, will lead to relatively straightforward hazards over the next couple of days. A slow moving cold front will spread showers and thunderstorms from the Central Plains to the Midwest today. Pockets of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding may develop over sections of the Lower Missouri Valley due to training along the front. Troughing and an area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast will produce heavy rainfall and the threat of flash flooding with a Slight Risk in effect for parts of the upper Texas Coast. Persistent troughing in the Southeast will contribute to a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Georgia/South Carolina coast. Meanwhile, another wave of low pressure will emerge from the Rockies today and become the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Great Plains. Some thuunderstorms, particuluarly over the Front Range into South Dakota/Nebraska, have the potential to become severe today with large hail and wind damage becoming the main threats. Showers and thunderstorms move into the Ohio Valley and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Saturday as the aforementioned cold front continues to slowly move through the East. A Slight risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect for parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Saturday with damaging winds from small bowing clusters out ahead of the front being the main threat. Upstream, a surface wave will become the focus for additional heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms over the Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday where a couple inches of rain may fall. Continued embedded troughing in the Southeast will enable additional showers and thunderstorm activity with the heaviest axis of precipitation moving offshore. Some more rain continues for parts of the central Gulf Coast with isolated pockets of excessive rainfall possible, especially over southern Louisiana. The Southwest will continue to experience typical summer monsoons over the next couple of days with the greatest rainfall amounts occuring alsong the central Arizona/New Mexico border areas and northern New Mexico. Temperatures will be above normal over parts of the Midwest and Northeast today, before an upper-level low emerges from the Pacific and drops temperatures across the West on Saturday. Reasonably seasonal temperatures remain across the rest of the country with slight cool downs around the areas receivnig monsoonal moisture and the Southeast coast. Critical Fire Weather is expected for parts of the Central Great Basin due to dry and windy conditions. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms likely to develop over the Northwest Saturday night into Sunday morning. Kebede Graphics are available at