Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2023
Valid 00Z Wed Feb 01 2023 - 00Z Fri Feb 03 2023
...Prolonged and significant ice storm to continue impacting a large area
from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley...
...Heavy rain and scattered flash floods possible across parts of the Deep
South and Southeast midweek...
...Unseasonably cold temperatures continue for portions of the South, with
another surge of arctic air for the Northern Tier Thursday...
The major weather story over the next few days will continue to be the
ongoing ice storm affecting portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South.
In the wake of an arctic cold frontal passage, warm and moist air
overrunning cold air at the surface will lead to additional rounds of
wintry precipitation, with brief lulls followed by bursts of sleet and
freezing rain that could drastically deteriorate road conditions.
Widespread total ice accretion of greater than 0.25" is likely from West
Texas to western Tennessee through Thursday morning, with localized areas
receiving as much as 0.75". In addition to potentially hazardous travel
conditions, this amount of ice will likely lead to some tree damage and
scattered power outages across the hardest-hit regions. Sleet
accumulations around a half inch or locally higher are also possible from
West Texas to Arkansas, which will compound the risk for icy, dangerous
road conditions. As a result, Ice Storm Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings,
and Winter Weather Advisories continue for the region. Travelers are
advised to check road conditions before venturing out and drive with
extreme caution, with travel already slow-going and numerous roads closed,
particular for the Dallas/Fort-Worth and Austin metro areas.
Along and just to the north of the aforementioned frontal boundary now
lingering along the Gulf Coast, numerous showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop and push eastward from eastern Texas beginning on
Wednesday. This final surge of moisture in tandem with a lifting
upper-level trough exiting northern Mexico may lead to a swath of 1-2" of
rainfall from eastern Texas northeast through the southern Appalachians,
with locally higher amounts possible, particular across portions of
central Mississippi. Saturated soils throughout the region may exacerbate
the flash flooding concern, which has led to a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday spanning from eastern Texas
to northwest Georgia, with the threat gradually sliding eastward each day.
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday will generally be seasonable to below
average for most of the country, with some of the more unusually cold
temperatures continuing behind the front over the Southern Plains and
Mid-South. Highs will remain at or just above freezing on Wednesday before
warming up a bit into the 40s on Thursday. An upper-level wave over Canada
will push southeastward towards the northern tier of the U.S. late
Wednesday, helping to usher in another surge of cold, Canadian air
southward through the day Thursday. Highs in the teens and 20s for
portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Wednesday will drop
into the single digits Thursday, with wind chills below zero likely.
Post-frontal flow over the Great Lakes following the cold front will lead
to some lake effect snow on Thursday. In contrast, much above normal
temperatures are forecast for portions of the coastal Southeast and the
Florida Peninsula, with highs in the 70s to low 80s.
In the West, some snow showers will continue in the Northern Rockies
through Tuesday evening before tapering off by Wednesday Morning.
Additional accumulations should be limited to more isolated higher,
mountain locations. A storm system will approach the Pacific Northwest
during the day Thursday helping to increase the chance for some light
lower elevation/coastal rain and snow for the Cascades, with heavier
precipitation chances likely by Friday morning just beyond the current
forecast period. Another night of freezing temperatures are expected for
the Central Valley of California, with a frost possible for locations
around the Bay Area. Temperatures should begin to moderate during the day
Wednesday as an upper-level ridge moves over the region.
Graphics available at