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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0801Z Oct 05, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024 - 12Z Mon Oct 07 2024 ...Record-breaking heat remains across California and the Southwest through this weekend, while briefly overspreading portions of the Plains and Midwest on Saturday... ...Strong winds and dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast from the northern/central Rockies into the Plains on Saturday... ...Locally heavy rainfall will be possible across the immediate Gulf Coast through Saturday, with more of a focus toward the Florida Peninsula by late Sunday... A record-breaking late-season heat wave continues over portions of central/southern California and the Desert Southwest this weekend as upper-level ridging persists over the region. Forecast highs will once again soar into the upper 90s to low 100s outside of immediate coastal areas in central/southern California and into the 100s to low 110s into the Desert Southwest. Numerous daily record-tying/breaking highs will likely be reached again following days of new record daily temperatures. Heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as this persistent level of major to extreme heat remains a danger to anyone without adequate air-conditioning/hydration and those spending greater time outdoors. After a brief period of more seasonable temperatures to the north following a cold frontal passage, highs will trend above average again for most of the rest of the Interior West by Sunday, with 70s into the northern Great Basin/Rockies and 80s for the central Great Basin. Further to the east over the central U.S., a brief period of upper-level ridging and strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching system will bring some hotter high temperatures to portions of the Midwest and Central Plains on Saturday. Forecast highs into the low to mid-90s are upwards of 20 degrees above average, and some record-tying/breaking temperatures possible here as well. An approaching cold front will bring cooler, more seasonable air on Sunday with highs back down into the 70s. The Southern Plains will remain hot and above average south of the front through the weekend with upper 80s and low 90s forecast. As noted, an upper-level wave will move quickly along the northern-tier of the country this weekend with an accompanying surface frontal system. Lee cyclogenesis east of the Rockies has led to a rapidly deepening area of low pressure just north of the U.S./Canadian border, with a tightening pressure gradient leading to widespread very strong, gusty winds across the northern/central Rockies and into the northern/central Plains. Wind-related advisories and warnings are in place for gusts upwards of 60-70 mph through Saturday. In addition, very dry conditions combined with the gusty winds with cold frontal passage will also bring a significant risk of wildfires. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas from northern Colorado/southern Wyoming into central Nebraska and southern South Dakota with a Critical Risk of fire weather (level 2/3). Widespread Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches cover much of the rest of the region due to wildfire risk. Greater moisture further east will lead to some showers and storms ahead of the frontal system over the Upper Great Lakes by Saturday afternoon. Some moderate rainfall will be possible, and strong dynamic forcing with the system could lead to some more potent thunderstorms. A Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) has been introduced from the Storm Prediction Center in northeastern Wisconsin mainly for the threat of some large hail. The system will continue into the Northeast Sunday afternoon/evening with more showers and thunderstorms expected. An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and increasing Gulf moisture will lead to periods of thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall along the immediate Gulf Coast and eastward along a surface trough/weak frontal boundary across the Florida Peninsula this weekend. While storms may be generally ill-focused for any potential flooding threat, a couple areas will see a low but non-zero risk. More concentrated storms along a coastal trough nearby the far south Texas Gulf Coast could lead to some isolated flash flooding on Saturday. Another focus will be along and ahead of the weak frontal boundary through the central Florida Peninsula on Sunday, with some isolated flash flooding possible along the Florida Gulf Coast and South Florida. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor this area of low pressure for potential tropical development, though if something were to develop this remains more likely after the current forecast period into next week. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php