Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 PM EDT Tue Sep 02 2014
Valid 00Z Wed Sep 03 2014 - 00Z Fri Sep 05 2014
...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over portions of the
Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians...
...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Upper Great Lakes...
A front extending from the Northeast southwestward to the Mid-Atlantic
then westward to the Southern Plains will move off the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by Wednesday evening. The western portion of
the boundary will lift northward to the Upper Midwest as a warm front by
Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near the
boundary from the Northeast to the Mid-Atlantic and across the Tennessee
Valley to parts of the Southern Plains will likewise move eastward off the
Northeast Coast by Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will
remain over parts of the Carolinas into parts of the Central Gulf Coast
into Wednesday evening. In addition, upper-level impulses extending from
the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Central Gulf Coast will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast to the Central Gulf
Coast Wednesday evening into Thursday.
In the meantime, the western end of the front will lift northward as a
warm front from the Southern Plains to the Upper Midwest. The boundary
will merge with another front moving eastward out of the Northern Rockies
on Wednesday evening. Along with the northward moving front, moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico will surge northward into the Upper Great Lakes by
Thursday morning. The moisture and the lift provided by the boundary will
aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Upper
Mississippi Valley that will move northward into the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday into Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Pacific Northwest will move
eastward to the Northern Plains/South-Central Canada by Thursday. The
energy will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest into parts of
the Northern Rockies on Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. The storm
will produce an area of light to moderate rain over parts of the Northern
High Plains on Wednesday moving into parts of the Northern Plains by
Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday morning.
Elsewhere, moisture associated with T. S. Dolly will produce scattered
showers and thunderstorms over the Western Gulf Coast through Thursday.
T. S. Dolly is forecast to move into the East Coast of Mexico overnight
Tuesday. See the latest NHC advisory for the most current track and
intensity. Furthermore, upper-level energy off the East Coast of Florida
will move westward to the Southern tip of Florida by Thursday. The energy
will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over the area through
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php