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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 2045Z Mar 25, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 444 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Valid 00Z Sun Mar 26 2023 - 00Z Tue Mar 28 2023 ...Heavy snow winds down over Great Lakes then picks up over northern New England; snow continues over Northern Rockies... ...Rain and severe thunderstorms expected from Mississippi to Carolinas through beginning of work week... ...Powerful storm system to bring unsettled weather to West Coast beginning Monday... ...Cold in the West warm in the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic; Critical Fire Weather for the Central/Southern Plains... A dynamic low pressure system that has already dumped several inches of snow over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will move into Ontario and Quebec tonight. Snow will wind down over the Midwest while picking up in intensity over northern Maine and the higher elevations of Vermont/New Hampshire tonight. The heavy snow should persist through much of the day tomorrow before wrapping up. Between 4-8 inches are expected over much of northern Maine with locally higher accumulations possible. Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast tonight before clearing out by Sunday morning. Elsewhere, persistent troughing, cold air and a present stationary front will generate heavy snow over the mountains of central Iowa, southwestern Montana and northern Wyoming over the next couple of days. A quasi-stationary front draped across the Southeast will be the focus for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorm activity over the next few days. Some convective cells may cause isolated flash flooding over portions of central Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia tomorrow, but the risk remains marginal at this time. The main threat from this setup will be the potential for severe weather along the stalled out front. Slight Risks of severe thunderstorms are in effect for portions of Alabama and southern Georgia tonight due to the risk of isolated large hail and damaging winds associated with any severe storms. The threat of severe thunderstorms becomes more scattered by Sunday when supercells producing large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible from Louisiana to the Carolina coast. An Enhanced risk area was highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center for parts of eastern Louisiana through central-southern Mississippi/Alabama. Meanwhile, a deep positively tilted upper trough will rapidly intensify as it glides down the west coast of North America. Despite the uncertainty displayed by the guidance beyond 48 hours, the signal remains for some sort of heavy rain/snow event to unfold across California early-to-middle of next week. Temperatures should remain below average in the West due to broad upper-level troughing. Meanwhile, semi-zonal flow with some embedded shortwave energy should keep temperatures above average across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions over the next couple of days. Dry and windy conditions support a critical fire weather area over portions of southeastern Colorado down through the panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma tonight. The critical fire area shifts southward into southeastern New Mexico and western Texas on Sunday. Kebede Graphics available at