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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0830Z Apr 18, 2014)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 430 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014 Valid 12Z Fri Apr 18 2014 - 12Z Sun Apr 20 2014 ...Heavy rainfall is likely across the Southeastern U.S. through Saturday... ...A potential for severe weather exists across Central Florida on Friday... The upper pattern being featured across the country will consist of a split flow with both the northern and southern streams being fairly active. The major system to impact the United States the next couple of days will be an upper trof amplifying across the Eastern Gulf Coast. Ample moisture is forecast to surge northward ahead of the developing system which will set the stages for heavy rainfall across the Southeastern U.S. The WPC precipitation forecast suggests amounts of 2 to 4 inches of rain across Southern Georgia along with the Florida panhandle through Saturday morning. Heavier convective elements may lead to regions of flash flooding given such high rainfall rates and slow motions. Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center is advertising a threat for severe weather across Central Florida on Friday where sufficient instability and favorable turning of the winds with height will be present. The slow moving nature of the upper low will maintain a chance of rain through early Sunday, particularly for the coastal locations across Georgia and the Carolinas. The other system within the southern stream will be less pronounced than its counterpart further downstream but will still affect the Four Corners Region and Southern High Plains. Broad ascent ahead of the upper trof combined with moisture returning from the Western Gulf should keep unsettled conditions in the forecast. Terrain is expected to play a role in placing localized higher amounts. With the exception of the higher elevations across the San Juans, this will be an all liquid precipitation event. Looking to the northern branch of the jet, it will also be rather active as a train of systems slide eastward. A Pacific system currently migrating into the Upper Intermountain West will continue tracking due east reaching the Northern High Plains by late Friday night. It appears much of wintry aspects of this developing system should be confined to north of the international border with Canada. By Saturday some of the wintry mix consisting of freezing rain may impact northeastern portions of Minnesota. Otherwise, expect rain to dominate with high temperatures to prevail in the 50s and 60s the next couple of days. Conditions across the northeastern section of the country should be rather quiet as a surface ridge remains centered over the region. With the system developing across Northeastern Gulf, surface high pressure wedged east of the Appalachians will provide cool conditions with highs in the 50s on Friday before rebounding into the 60s by early in the weekend. Rubin-Oster Graphics available at