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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1959Z May 27, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024 Valid 00Z Tue May 28 2024 - 00Z Thu May 30 2024 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains on Tuesday and a Slight Risk over parts of the Northeast to the Southeast with a second area over parts of the Southern Plains on Monday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Monday and the Southern Plains on Tuesday... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over southern Texas... On Monday evening, a front extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic and southwestward to the Southern Plains will move to the Eastern Seaboard and stall Tuesday morning through evening. The boundary will create an area of showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Eastern Seaboard to near the Central Gulf Coast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast to the Southeast through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, near the western part of the boundary and dryline, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there will be an added threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over parts of the region. Also, on Monday, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts of southeastern New York, eastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, and northeastern Maryland. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Tuesday, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over Texas along the western part of the boundary and dryline. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there will be an added threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater and hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the region. The showers and thunderstorms will also create heavy rain from the moisture stream northward from the Western Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains on Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, a front will develop over parts of the interior Pacific Northwest on Tuesday afternoon and move eastward to the Northern High Plains to the Great Basin by Wednesday. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms over the Northern Intermountain Region. On Wednesday, the showers and thunderstorms will move to the Northern Plains and expand into the Central Plains. Furthermore, a sub-tropical upper-level high over Mexico will aid in spawning Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over southern Texas and into the Central Gulf Coast. The ridging will create a dangerous early-season heat wave over south Texas, Central Gulf Coast, and southern Florida. Record or near-record warm overnight temperatures will provide little to no relief to those without adequate or reliable cooling. High temperatures will be at or near record highs, and heat index readings over 115 degrees over the regions will also be possible. Check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours, especially if you encounter or are dealing with a loss of power. Drink plenty of water, avoid alcohol, wear lightweight clothing, and take regular breaks indoors or in the shade. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php