Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 01 2022 - 12Z Sun Jul 03 2022

...Classic summer weather pattern to take hold of most of the CONUS
through the weekend and Independence Day

...Excessive Rainfall expected from the Upper Texas Coast to the central
Gulf Coast, Lower Missouri Valley and portions of the Georgia South
Carolina coast; Severe storms to track across portions of the
Northern/Central Plains today and the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Saturday...

...Monsoonal moisture to keep producing spotty showers and storms in the
Southwest and southern/central Rockies; t-storms possible in the Northwest
this weekend...

A classic summer weather pattern, with high pressure stretched out across
the southern tier states and waves of low pressure riding across the
north, will lead to relatively straightforward hazards over the next
couple of days. A slow moving cold front will spread showers and
thunderstorms from the Central Plains to the Midwest today. Pockets of
heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding may develop over sections of the
Lower Missouri Valley due to training along the front. Troughing and an
area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast will produce heavy rainfall and
the threat of flash flooding with a Slight Risk in effect for parts of the
upper Texas Coast. Persistent troughing in the Southeast will contribute
to a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Georgia/South
Carolina coast. Meanwhile, another wave of low pressure will emerge from
the Rockies today and become the focus for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the Great Plains. Some thuunderstorms, particuluarly
over the Front Range into South Dakota/Nebraska, have the potential to
become severe today with large hail and wind damage becoming the main
threats.

Showers and thunderstorms move into the Ohio Valley and
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Saturday as the aforementioned cold front
continues to slowly move through the East. A Slight risk of severe
thunderstorms is in effect for parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on
Saturday with damaging winds from small bowing clusters out ahead of the
front being the main threat. Upstream, a surface wave will become the
focus for additional heavy rainfall and scattered thunderstorms over the
Lower Missouri Valley on Saturday where a couple inches of rain may fall.
Continued embedded troughing in the Southeast will enable additional
showers and thunderstorm activity with the heaviest axis of precipitation
moving offshore. Some more rain continues for parts of the central Gulf
Coast with isolated pockets of excessive rainfall possible, especially
over southern Louisiana.

The Southwest will continue to experience typical summer monsoons over the
next couple of days with the greatest rainfall amounts occuring alsong the
central Arizona/New Mexico border areas and northern New Mexico.
Temperatures will be above normal over parts of the Midwest and Northeast
today, before an upper-level low emerges from the Pacific and drops
temperatures across the West on Saturday. Reasonably seasonal temperatures
remain across the rest of the country with slight cool downs around the
areas receivnig monsoonal moisture and the Southeast coast. Critical Fire
Weather is expected for parts of the Central Great Basin due to dry and
windy conditions. Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms likely
to develop over the Northwest Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Kebede

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php