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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 2018Z Jun 09, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 417 PM EDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Valid 00Z Sat Jun 10 2023 - 00Z Mon Jun 12 2023 ...Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding likely across Northern Great Basin/Plains/Rockies tonight; Great Plains and Mississippi Valley this weekend... ...Severe weather expected from Central/Southern Plains to Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley this weekend... ...Air Quality Alerts due to Canadian wildfire smoke remain in effect over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... Shortwave energy stalled out over the Northern Plains will continue to generate thunderstorms with embedded heavy rainfall across the Northern Rockies/Plains through Saturday. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for portions of eastern Montana tonight due to the potential for high rainfall rates over very saturated soils. Meanwhile, severe thunderstorms will probably develop along a shortwave and surface dryline over the Central/Southern Plains tonight. A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect for parts of southeast Colorado, southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle due to the possibility of large hail and severe outflow gusts. Upper-level energy over the Pacific Northwest will support a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall over portions of eastern Oregon and western Idaho, where high rain rates and low flash flood guidance can lead to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. The threat for flash flooding shifts into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley on Saturday, due, in part, to the southward progression of a cold front through the midsection of the country. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall are in effect for parts of these areas, where high rain rates and a very unstable environment may combine to produce flash flooding. Multiple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the Southern Great Plains, ArkLaTex, and Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Thus an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect for these areas. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail will be the primary threats with some potential for very large hail, severe gusts and a tornado or two across parts of north and central Texas. The flash flooding and severe thunderstorm threat shift into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday where Slight Risks of both are in effect. An expanding upper-level low over the Southwest will pump cool Pacific air into the region this weekend. High temperatures might be low enough on Sunday to tie or break records over parts of southern California, where temps will be in the low to mid-60s. Air quality alerts are still in effect despite an improvement over much of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley today. This trend should continue through the weekend before a thorough clearance of Canadian wildfire smoke with the arrival of a cold front early next week. Kebede Graphics available at