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Short Range Public Discussion
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0710Z Oct 23, 2017)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 309 AM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 23 2017 - 12Z Wed Oct 25 2017 ...Large storm system to affect the eastern half of the nation... A strong autumn storm system is now in the progress of becoming better organized as two separate low pressure systems consolidate over the Great Lakes through early Tuesday. Potent shortwave energy aloft over the Deep South is forecast to phase with an approaching upper level trough from the Upper Midwest, and fueling the development of a large and occluded surface low that will track from the Great Lakes to Ontario and Quebec. A strong cold front will trail southward from this low, and bring a swath of moderate to heavy rain along with embedded thunderstorms towards the East Coast by Monday night. The heaviest rainfall is likely to materialize across southern Michigan in conjunction with the main surface low, and also for central New England as deep moisture ahead of the front leads to 1 to 3 inch rainfall amounts. Some instances of flash flooding will be possible given the atmospheric set-up. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., fire weather concerns will continue across parts of California over the next few days with very dry conditions and gusty winds expected. A big heat wave is also in the forecast for southern California, with widespread 90s and 100s expected through Tuesday with excessive heat warnings in effect. Cool and dry conditions will prevail across the Plains and the Intermountain West with surface high pressure that is large and in charge. D. Hamrick Graphics available at