Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
148 PM EST Mon Dec 01 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Dec 02 2025 - 00Z Thu Dec 04 2025

...Monday will bring a messy wintry mix across the Ozarks/Mid-South into
the Ohio Valley with light to moderate snowfall for portions of the
Midwest/Lower Great Lakes...

...First winter storm of the season expected for New England and the
inland Mid-Atlantic late Monday into Tuesday with heavy snow and impactful
icing...

...Chilly temperatures continue across much of the eastern and central
U.S. in a winter-like pattern...


Snow showers continue over parts of the Central Plains and west of the
Mississippi Valley as the upper-level trough sits over central CONUS. The
upper-wave moves eastward into the Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes
by Tuesday morning and will interact with colder air, which will bring a
wintry mix across portions of the Upper Midwest and will eventually
transition to accumulating snow across eastern portions of the Upper
Midwest and the Great Lakes. Lake-effect will also support on and off snow
development over the next few days. Snow amounts are expected to remain
light to moderate (~2-4"), with possible locally higher totals. Further
south, the upper-wave will continue to push the surface low over Southern
Plains into the Ohio Valley and will pool moisture from a shortwave over
the Gulf, bringing chances for precipitation over portions of the Gulf
Coast and Southeast tonight, with the highest precipiation amount over the
Lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Storm Prediction
Center has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for Severe Thunderstorms
over portions of Alabama tonight and the Florida Panhandle through
Tuesday. Some moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with an
isolated risk for flash flooding as the Weather Prediction Center has
portions of the Gulf Coast and Deep South under a Marginal Risk (level
1/4) for Excessive Rainfall. While the system continues to move
northeastward Tuesday, expect possible freezing rain and icy conditions
over central/southern Appalachians, that can make traveling hazardous, as
well as, possible showers and thunderstorms along the East Coast.

As the low continues to deepens over New England and the mid-level
moisture interact with the colder air north of the system, much of New
England and the Mid-Atlantic will experience enhanced winter precipitation
and possible gusty winds, especially inland from the coast, bringing the
first impactful winter storm of the season. Although uncertainty remains
with respect to specific totals, the threat for significant snow
accumulations across the interior is rising, with more than 6" possible
north and west of the I-95 corridor.

Over the west, another progressive upper level trough will approach the
coastline, bringing another rough of precipiation over the Pacific
Northwest/northern Rockies by this evening, bringing lower
elevation/coastal rain and inland/higher elevation snow. Snow showers will
spread southward over the Great Basin/central Rockies by Tuesday morning.
Some moderate snow accumulations are expected but should be limited to the
regional mountain ranges. Just to the northeast, an additional quick
moving clipper-like system will bring some light snow showers to the
northern Plains Tuesday, and some more moderate snowfall across the Upper
Great Lakes Tuesday night.

As the upper-wave continues to move through CONUS, temperatures will
continue to trend well-below average over eastern and central U.S. as this
winter-like pattern continues, featuring broad, stagnant upper-toughing
and repeated cold frontal passages. Forecast highs the next couple of days
generally range from the teens and 20s across the northern Plains/Midwest;
the 30s and 40s for the central Plains, Ohio valley, and
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic; and the 40s and 50s from Texas into the Southeast.
Areas along the Gulf Coast Monday and into the southeast Atlantic Tuesday
south of the frontal boundary will see much warmer highs into the 60s.
Downsloping winds off the Rockies will also bring a warm up to the High
Plains on Tuesday as temperatures rise into the 30s/40s north and 50s/60s
south. Conditions remain closer to average across the West, with highs in
the 40s for the interior, 50s and 60s along the West Coast, and 60s and
70s in the Desert Southwest.

Oudit/Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php