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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0725Z Oct 13, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 325 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 13 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 15 2025 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest and Central Rockies on Monday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California on Tuesday... ...Heavy snow over parts of the Northern Rockies on Monday and over the Sierra Mountains on Monday and Tuesday... A coastal low along the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Monday will move northeastward along the coast to New Jersey on Monday and then move eastward out over the Atlantic Ocean by Tuesday. The system will produce moderate rain across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast Coasts, as well as inland areas, tapering off by Monday evening. Rain will also develop over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday, slowly tapering off by Tuesday afternoon/evening. The combination of persistent, strong onshore winds, high surf, and high astronomical tides may lead to significant coastal flooding in some East Coast communities, generate strong rip currents, and potentially cause beach erosion. Coastal residents are urged to heed their local National Weather Service forecasts and warnings and always follow guidance from local officials. Furthermore, the storm is likely to bring wind gusts exceeding 45 MPH and periods of heavy rain, primarily in coastal areas. The strong wind and heavy rain may bring additional flooding from rainfall outside of the immediate coastal zone, as well as the potential for scattered power outages. Meanwhile, on Monday, upper-level energy over the Northwest will move southward to Southern California by Tuesday. The storm will produce coastal rain over the Northwest and higher-elevation snow over the Cascades. Farther inland, snow and lower-elevation rain will develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region and Northern Plains through Monday evening. Furthermore, rain will move into Northern California on Monday morning and into Central California by Monday afternoon. By Monday evening, the rain moves into Southern California, with heavy snow developing over the Sierra Nevada Mountains into Tuesday morning. In addition, on Monday, moisture will stream inland from the Pacific over parts of the Southwest as upper-level energy moves over the region, developing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest and Central Rockies through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will cause mainly localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The flooding may include debris flows in or near recently burned areas. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Plains overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northern/Central Plains on Tuesday, moving into parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. In addition, moisture circulating around the upper-level low will stream into Southern California on Tuesday, creating heavy rain over parts of the region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will cause mainly localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The flooding may include debris flows in or near recently burned areas. By Tuesday afternoon, rain and higher-elevation snow will move into parts of the Great Basin, tapering off on Wednesday. Rain and higher-elevation snow will develop overnight Tuesday into Wednesday across parts of the Northern Rockies. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php