Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 11 2025 - 00Z Mon Oct 13 2025

...Heavy rain and flash flooding risk in the Southwest and Four Corners
Region continues into this weekend as tropical moisture flows in from the
Pacific...

...Coastal storm to bring heavy rain, coastal flooding, high surf,
dangerous rip currents, and gusty winds up much of the East Coast this
weekend...

...Storm system to bring lower elevation rain and higher elevation snow,
heavy at times, to the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West...

Widespread, heavy rain producing thunderstorms are forecast to continue
throughout the Southwest and Four Corners region as a deep upper-trough
slowly passes eastward over the western U.S. and moisture associated with
both Priscilla and Raymond flows in from the Pacific. This anomalously
high moisture will contribute to locally heavy downpours with rain rates
possibly reaching 1-2" at times bringing a potentially significant flash
flood risk. For today (Friday), Moderate Risks of Excessive Rainfall
(level 3/4) cover portions of southern Utah and north-central Arizona
where the most confidence exists for scattered to widespread instances of
flash flooding. Slight Risks (level 2/4) are in place throughout much of
the rest of the Southwest/Four Corners region today and tomorrow, where
more scattered flash flooding will be possible. Rainfall will focus on
southeast Arizona/southwest New Mexico on Sunday, with a continued risk of
scattered flash flooding. This is especially true for more vulnerable
terrain such as slot canyons and burn scars, as well as for urban areas.
Unfortunately, storms, heavy rainfall, and the flash flood risk look to
linger into early next week. 

Further to the north, this upper-trough and associated surface frontal
system will bring widespread precipitation elsewhere across much of the
Pacific Northwest today and into the Intermountain West this weekend. Rain
is expected for lower elevations, with locally heavy rainfall possible
particularly throughout portions of the Great Basin into the northern
Rockies/High Plains on Saturday, and some isolated flash flooding is
possible. In addition, snow, heavy at times, is likely for higher
elevations of the Cascades and northern Rockies, especially on Saturday.
Winter weather-related Warnings and Advisories are in place for portions
of the northern Rockies as totals of 3-6", locally as much as 12-15", will
be possible. Some of the mountain valleys may see some snow mix in
Saturday night into Sunday, and while accumulations are expected to remain
minor, caution is advised throughout the region given this is the first
snow of the season for many locations.

Meanwhile, a strong coastal low expected to develop in the Atlantic off
the coast of the Southeast will bring significant impacts to much of the
East Coast through this weekend and into early next week. Heavy rainfall
is expected from coastal Florida to the Carolinas today, continuing
through the Carolinas on Saturday, and stretching into the coastal
Mid-Atlantic to southern New England on Sunday. Slight Risks of Excessive
Rainfall are in effect for coastal North Carolina Saturday and the
Mid-Atlantic to portions of southern New England Sunday as scattered
instances of flash flooding will be possible, with more isolated instances
elsewhere through the weekend. Coastal flood-related advisories stretch
almost the length of the East Coast, with a particular concern for
portions of the Mid-Atlantic where the combination of strong onshore
winds, high surf, and high astronomical tides may lead to major coastal
flooding. This would flood roadways and potentially affect some homes and
businesses near the waterfront. High surf and rip currents are also
expected along many East Coast beaches, and will likely lead to areas of
beach erosion. There is also an increasing threat of significant wind
gusts, in excess of 55 mph, especially along coastal areas of the
Mid-Atlantic, and scattered power outages will be possible.

Elsewhere, a couple upper-waves will bring some shower chances to the
Great Lakes region through this evening, and to portions of the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest this weekend. Temperature-wise, the East Coast will
see highs around to possibly just below average following a frontal
passage and with cloud cover/precipitation throughout much of the region
associated with the coastal low. Highs will generally be in the 60s from
the Mid-Atlantic north, and into the 70s from the Carolinas south. An
upper-ridge will lead to widespread, well above average conditions across
much of the Plains and into the Midwest, with highs into the 60s for the
Upper-Midwest/Great Lakes, the 70s across the northern Plains and into the
Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys, 80s in the central Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valleys, and 80s to low 90s for the southern Plains/Texas. The
upper-trough over the west will bring much cooler, below average
temperatures, with widespread 50s expected throughout the Intermountain
West, Pacific Northwest, and northern California, and 70s to 80s for
southern California into the Desert Southwest.

Putnam



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php