Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
325 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 13 2025 - 12Z Wed Oct 15 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest and Central Rockies on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California on Tuesday...

...Heavy snow over parts of the Northern Rockies on Monday and over the
Sierra Mountains on Monday and Tuesday...

A coastal low along the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Monday will move
northeastward along the coast to New Jersey on Monday and then move
eastward out over the Atlantic Ocean by Tuesday. The system will produce
moderate rain across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Southeast Coasts, as
well as inland areas, tapering off by Monday evening. Rain will also
develop over the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday, slowly tapering off by
Tuesday afternoon/evening.

The combination of persistent, strong onshore winds, high surf, and high
astronomical tides may lead to significant coastal flooding in some East
Coast communities, generate strong rip currents, and potentially cause
beach erosion. Coastal residents are urged to heed their local National
Weather Service forecasts and warnings and always follow guidance from
local officials.

Furthermore, the storm is likely to bring wind gusts exceeding 45 MPH and
periods of heavy rain, primarily in coastal areas. The strong wind and
heavy rain may bring additional flooding from rainfall outside of the
immediate coastal zone, as well as the potential for scattered power
outages.

Meanwhile, on Monday, upper-level energy over the Northwest will move
southward to Southern California by Tuesday. The storm will produce
coastal rain over the Northwest and higher-elevation snow over the
Cascades. Farther inland, snow and lower-elevation rain will develop over
parts of the Northern Intermountain Region and Northern Plains through
Monday evening. Furthermore, rain will move into Northern California on
Monday morning and into Central California by Monday afternoon. By Monday
evening, the rain moves into Southern California, with heavy snow
developing over the Sierra Nevada Mountains into Tuesday morning.

In addition, on Monday, moisture will stream inland from the Pacific over
parts of the Southwest as upper-level energy moves over the region,
developing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest and Central Rockies through Tuesday morning.  The associated
heavy rain will cause mainly localized flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The
flooding may include debris flows in or near recently burned areas.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Plains
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Further, showers and thunderstorms
will develop over parts of the Northern/Central Plains on Tuesday, moving
into parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley by Wednesday.

In addition, moisture circulating around the upper-level low will stream
into Southern California on Tuesday, creating heavy rain over parts of the
region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of Southern California from Tuesday through
Wednesday morning.  The associated heavy rain will cause mainly localized
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable. The flooding may include debris flows in
or near recently burned areas. By Tuesday afternoon, rain and
higher-elevation snow will move into parts of the Great Basin, tapering
off on Wednesday. Rain and higher-elevation snow will develop overnight
Tuesday into Wednesday across parts of the Northern Rockies. 


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php