Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Oct 12 2025 - 12Z Tue Oct 14 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest and Central Rockies on Monday...

...Heavy snow over parts of the Cascades and Northern Rockies on Sunday
and over the Sierra Mountains on Monday...

A coastal low along the Southeast Coast on Sunday will move northeastward
along the coast to the Northern Mid-Atlantic by Monday evening and then
move eastward out over the Atlantic Ocean by Tuesday. The system will
produce moderate to heavy rain along the coast and moderate rain inland
over the Southeast to the Northeast Coast on Sunday, the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, and the Northeast on Tuesday.

The combination of persistent, strong onshore winds, high surf, and high
astronomical tides may lead to significant coastal flooding in some East
Coast communities, generate strong rip currents, and potentially cause
beach erosion. Coastal residents are urged to heed their local National
Weather Service forecasts and warnings and always follow guidance from
local officials.

Furthermore, the storm is likely to bring wind gusts exceeding 45 MPH and
periods of heavy rain, primarily in coastal areas. The strong wind and
heavy rain may bring additional flooding from rainfall outside of the
immediate coastal zone, as well as the potential for scattered power
outages.

Meanwhile, on Sunday, upper-level energy over the Northern Intermountain
Region/Great Basin will move eastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley by
Monday. The storm will produce coastal rain over the Northwest and
higher-elevation snow over the Cascades. Farther inland, snow and
lower-elevation rain will develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region and Northern Plains through Monday.

On Monday, the rain will move into Northern California and into Central
California by Monday afternoon. By Monday evening, the rain moves into
Southern California, with heavy snow developing over the Sierra Nevada
Mountains into Tuesday morning.

In addition, moisture will stream inland from the Pacific over parts of
the Southwest as upper-level energy moves over the region, developing
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest
through Monday morning.  The associated heavy rain will cause mainly
localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The flooding may include debris
flows in or near recently burned areas.

On Monday, the energy will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Southwest and Central Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest and Central Rockies from Monday through Tuesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will cause mainly localized flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable. The flooding may include debris flows in or near recently
burned areas.

Also on Sunday, a front extending from the Northern Plains to the Southern
Rockies will move eastward to the Great Lakes and then the Central Plains
by Tuesday. The system will produce rain over the Northern Plain on
Sunday. By Sunday evening, the rain moves into the Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes by Monday. Overnight Monday, rain
will develop over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and the Middle
Mississippi Valley.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php