Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 AM EST Wed Nov 05 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 05 2025 - 12Z Fri Nov 07 2025

...Unsettled weather for the Northwest & Northern California, with a
limited threat for flash flooding into early Friday morning...

...Dryness continues across the southern tier of the country & portions of
the Mid-Atlantic States with generally seasonable warmth...

The general flow pattern starts zonal, with west to east deep layer winds
crossing the Lower 48, before a broad upper level trough tries to develop
near the Mississippi Valley Friday morning.  This should keep onshore flow
from the Pacific and heavy rainfall potential across the Northwest down
into northern California, dry downslope winds off the Rockies and much of
the Appalachians.  Weather systems impacting portions of the Great Lakes
and Northeast should have general modest rainfall amounts.

The most active weather lies across portions of the West, with special
emphasis near the coast as a couple of atmospheric rivers associated with
a couple different frontal systems periodically bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the Northwest and northern California which gets wrung out by
the coastal ranges.  While the most significant rainfall/highest wind
threat fades during the day today, a limited severe weather risk exists in
the unstable post-frontal airmass this afternoon as cool air aloft
interacts with the heating of the day.  Precipitation does continue and
eventually picks back up some in intensity Thursday evening into Friday
morning, though thunderstorms are expected to be fewer and farther
between.  Across the Northern Continental Divide, snowfall is expected at
higher elevation through the period.  

Across the Great Lakes and Northeast, a wave of low pressure should bring
some rainfall to the region today into tonight, with some higher elevation
snow for the Northern Appalachians possible Thursday morning in the wake
of the system.  Thunderstorms are expected across northern portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States and southern New England, with some risk of severe
weather possible this afternoon and evening.  Meanwhile, a system moving
through the Rockies emerges into the Plains Thursday evening, leading to
rainfall across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes late Thursday into early
Friday.  The Gulf should be open sufficiently for a thunderstorm threat on
Friday morning closer to the Ohio Valley and in the vicinity of Indiana.

The Southwest, Southern Plains, Southeast, and the central/southern
Mid-Atlantic States should be dry through the period with above average
temperatures, though precious few record high temperatures appear to be in
jeopardy (mostly in Texas on Thursday and Friday).  Breezy and dry
conditions caused by downslope flow off the Central Appalachians brings
the promise of elevated fire weather conditions near the Virginia/West
Virginia border on Wednesday afternoon.  In the southern High Plains, a
strengthened downslope off the Rockies could lead to fire weather
conditions near the New Mexico/Texas border Thursday afternoon, though
lack of critically dry fuels could limit the threat.

Roth

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php