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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0717Z Oct 12, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 317 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Valid 12Z Sun Oct 12 2025 - 12Z Tue Oct 14 2025 ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest on Sunday... ...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest and Central Rockies on Monday... ...Heavy snow over parts of the Cascades and Northern Rockies on Sunday and over the Sierra Mountains on Monday... A coastal low along the Southeast Coast on Sunday will move northeastward along the coast to the Northern Mid-Atlantic by Monday evening and then move eastward out over the Atlantic Ocean by Tuesday. The system will produce moderate to heavy rain along the coast and moderate rain inland over the Southeast to the Northeast Coast on Sunday, the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, and the Northeast on Tuesday. The combination of persistent, strong onshore winds, high surf, and high astronomical tides may lead to significant coastal flooding in some East Coast communities, generate strong rip currents, and potentially cause beach erosion. Coastal residents are urged to heed their local National Weather Service forecasts and warnings and always follow guidance from local officials. Furthermore, the storm is likely to bring wind gusts exceeding 45 MPH and periods of heavy rain, primarily in coastal areas. The strong wind and heavy rain may bring additional flooding from rainfall outside of the immediate coastal zone, as well as the potential for scattered power outages. Meanwhile, on Sunday, upper-level energy over the Northern Intermountain Region/Great Basin will move eastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley by Monday. The storm will produce coastal rain over the Northwest and higher-elevation snow over the Cascades. Farther inland, snow and lower-elevation rain will develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region and Northern Plains through Monday. On Monday, the rain will move into Northern California and into Central California by Monday afternoon. By Monday evening, the rain moves into Southern California, with heavy snow developing over the Sierra Nevada Mountains into Tuesday morning. In addition, moisture will stream inland from the Pacific over parts of the Southwest as upper-level energy moves over the region, developing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will cause mainly localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The flooding may include debris flows in or near recently burned areas. On Monday, the energy will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest and Central Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest and Central Rockies from Monday through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will cause mainly localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The flooding may include debris flows in or near recently burned areas. Also on Sunday, a front extending from the Northern Plains to the Southern Rockies will move eastward to the Great Lakes and then the Central Plains by Tuesday. The system will produce rain over the Northern Plain on Sunday. By Sunday evening, the rain moves into the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes by Monday. Overnight Monday, rain will develop over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php