Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 01 2025 - 00Z Fri Oct 03 2025

...Showers and thunderstorms subsiding across much of the Southeast;
unsettled weather continues across the Great Basin and Pacific
Northwest...

...Unseasonably hot temperatures continue for much of the Plains and
Midwest through the remainder of the week...

After a rainy start to the work week, much of the Southeast and Lower
Mid-Atlantic will begin to see improving conditions as Imelda turns to the
northeast tonight, leaving calm high pressure and fall-like weather in its
wake. The one exception to this drying trend will fall over eastern
Florida, where moist onshore flow will lead to repeated rounds of showers
and thunderstorms through this weekend. The repeating nature of this
activity could lead to isolated flash flooding concerns heading into the
latter part of the week. The prolonged onshore flow coupled with the
increased wave action generated by both Imelda and Humberto will also lead
to swells, high surf, and dangerous rip currents along much of the East
Coast the next several days. 

Out west, a stretch of unsettled and unseasonably cool weather is in store
for parts of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Intermountain West
the next few days as a series of Pacific fronts push inland. These
moisture-laden fronts will bring periodic waves of showers and
thunderstorms, some of which could contain bursts of heavy rainfall. While
the overall threat is low, localized flash flooding concerns still can't
be ruled out across parts of the Great Basin, northern Rockies, and the
Olympic Peninsula. The increased presence of clouds and precipitation
associated with the passing fronts and persistent upper-level troughing
will result in high temperatures roughly 5 to 15 degrees below seasonal
averages across much of the western U.S. through mid to late week.

Downstream of the deep upper-level troughing along the west coasts of the
U.S. and Canada is a highly amplified upper-level ridge located over the
heart of North America. This ridge of high pressure has been responsible
for the unseasonably hot weather across a large portion of the country
east of the Rockies the last few days. With the ridge forecast to go
nowhere anytime soon, this summer-like heat will continue through at least
the end of the week. This will especially be the case from the
northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest, where high temperatures will
soar well into the mid/upper 80s and low 90s. These temperatures are
roughly 15 and 25 degrees above normal, making for a toasty end of
September and start to October. A few daily high temperature records could
fall this weekend as a result.

Asherman/Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php