Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 PM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Oct 08 2025 - 00Z Fri Oct 10 2025

...Heavy rain may cause flash flooding over the Ohio Valley/central
Appalachians today into tonight...

...Threat for scattered flash flooding for portions of New Mexico today...

...Moisture from Priscilla will bring increasing thunderstorm chances to
the Southwest/Four Corners region Thursday with at least an isolated
threat for flash flooding...

Showers and storms are expected to continue through this afternoon and
into the evening along a cold front stretching from the Interior Northeast
southwest through the Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians into the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. High moisture values will contribute to locally
heavy rainfall, and a more widespread cluster of storms over portions of
the Ohio Valley has prompted a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
2/4) for the threat of some scattered flash flooding. The progressive
nature of the front should keep the flash flood threat isolated elsewhere.
The front will continue eastward during the overnight hours, bringing
thunderstorms to the coastal Northeast by Wednesday morning and the
Carolinas/Southeast into Wednesday afternoon. The front will clear the
East Coast by Thursday with storm chances limited to portions of northern
Florida and the Gulf Coast. Daily thunderstorms can be expected across
central and especially South Florida as well.

To the west, very moist, post-frontal upslope flow along the southern
Rockies will lead to thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across
portions of eastern New Mexico today. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
is in effect for some scattered flash flooding especially for more terrain
sensitive areas like burn scars. Storms chances will shift a bit westward
further into the southern Rockies and Southwest with the lingering frontal
boundary on Wednesday, with a continued risk of some locally heavy
rainfall and isolated flash flooding. Then, on Thursday, moisture from
Priscilla in the Pacific is forecast to spread into the Southwest/Four
Corners region bringing increasingly widespread thunderstorms. At least an
isolated threat for flash flooding will exist, with this threat expected
to continue into the weekend. Elsewhere in the West, shower chances will
spread inland Wednesday into Thursday across the Pacific Northwest ahead
of an incoming frontal system, with the chance some snow may mix in for
some of the higher mountain peaks.

Tuesday is bringing another round of well above average temperatures to
the East Coast, especially into New England, where highs into the low 80s
may approach daily record levels for some locations. The aforementioned
cold front will bring much cooler, Fall temperatures Wednesday-Thursday,
with highs in the 50s for much of the Northeast and 60s as far south as
Georgia. Temperatures will also briefly fall below average for the Midwest
Wednesday, with morning lows in 20s and 30s prompting Frost and
Freeze-related Advisories across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, in the
central part of the country, a warm up is expected over the next couple of
days as temperatures moderate following the passage of the cold front.
Highs into the 70s to low 80s over the northern/central Plains
Wednesday-Thursday are upwards of 10-20 degrees above average, with above
average highs into the 80s and low 90s across the southern Plains/Texas.
Warmer than average temperatures will spread into the Interior West as
well, with highs mainly in the 70s, while the West Coast will see a cool
down following the passage of a cold front, with highs falling to the 60s
and 70s.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php