Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Dec 20 2025 - 00Z Mon Dec 22 2025

...California will see the potential for flash flooding this weekend into
early week as another atmospheric river enters the area...

...Heavy snow is forecast for the Cascades and Northern Rockies on Sunday
and Monday as precipitation increases across the
Pacific/Inter-mountain-West ...

...Record warm temperatures will prevail for the Southwest, Grand Basin,
and Texas for the weekend as a ridge of high pressure dominates the
weather pattern...

As of this afternoon, moderate to heavy rainfall is falling over the
Central Valley and northern Sierra of California associated with a surge
of moisture from the Paciifc. Rainfall should lessen by this evening,
though rain chances will continue for tomorrow as moist flow from the
Pacific will remain along a draped stationary front in the area. On Sunday
and Monday, however, another impulse of energy along the stationary front
will guide another round of heavy rainfall across northern California on
Sunday and Monday. Over the next 3 days, rainfall accumulations could
surpass 4-6 inches for coastal areas and the valleys of northern
California. Into the Sierra Nevada range, accumulations could near a foot
in the highest zones. WPC has started a key message for this event and is
highlighting the risks of flash flooding in urban areas and burn scars. A
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in the forecast for Sunday and Monday
across north California due to the hazards mentioned above. The
accumulative rainfall over north California will also raise concerns for
water rises in reservoirs and rivers.

In the western mountain ranges, heavy snowfall will be possible. Luckily,
the snow levels should be relatively high in the northern Rockies to avoid
major impacts on high population centers. For mountain ranges in Idaho,
Montana, and Wyoming, 1-2 feet snowfall accumulations are possible after
heavy snow enters the area on Sunday and Monday. The snow levels should be
relatively high, around 5000-7000 feet, due to the warm, Pacific flow.
This snow will be good for the winter sports enthusiasts ! The Sierra
Nevada in California may also eclipse a foot of snowfall and see high snow
load by the day Monday, but the snow levels will be rather high and
hopefully not cause too much trouble issues for the passes.  The Cascades
and the Olympic Mountain ranges will be a different story as colder air
will allow for lower snow levels and thus impact more population centers.
Winter Storm Warnings are active into tomorrow as 1-3 foot snowfall
accumulations are possible with difficult travel conditions in mountain
passes.

Folks in the Southwest and southern Plains will be saying "what Christmas"
as strong mid-level ridging will completely dominate the weather pattern.
Many cities and towns could near or break record high temperatures this
weekend. High temperatures from Los Angeles to Austin will range from the
middle 70s to low 80s on Saturday. A cold front will bring a brief cool
down for the Southern Plains on Sunday, but then temperatures will quickly
rebound by Monday as temperatures rebound into the low 80s to the middle
60s moving northward from Texas to Nebraska. In summary, the Southwest,
Great Basin, and southern/central Plains may average 10-20 degrees warmer
than average for expected around the Holidays. Temperatures only get
hotter by next week as ridging expands farther east into the Plains and
Midwest.

The eastern U.S. will see cooler shots of air though Monday as upper level
troughing prevails in the region. A cold front moved through the east
coast this afternoon and will usher in colder weather for tonight into
Saturday morning. Low temperatures will be in the 30s across northern
Florida and the Southeast, while the Ohio Valley and Northeast see morning
lows in the 20s. High temperatures for tomorrow will be seasonably mild in
the 50s and 60s for the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic will be cooler in
the 40s and 30s. Temperatures should modify Sunday  before dropping into
the low 40s for the Mid-Atlantic and the 30s and 20s for Monday across the
Northeast as a strong cold front sweeps though the area.

The last major weather storyline for the nation will be the Critical fire
weather conditions tomorrow across western Texas and New Mexico. Gusty
winds behind a cold front passage and low relative humidities will bring
favorable conditions for fire spread.

Wilder



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php