Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 AM EST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 06 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 08 2025

...Unsettled weather for the Pacific Northwest and Northern California,
including areas of heavy rain for the coastal ranges and heavy snowfall
over the higher elevations of the Cascades through early Friday...

...Some potential for severe weather will exist on Friday across portions
of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on down to the central Gulf Coast...

...Dry conditions will continue across much of the Southwest U.S. through
the Southern Plains...

...Much colder temperatures to arrive by late Friday and Saturday across
the Upper Midwest...

Across the continental U.S. through this Friday, the primary weather
features will be a new quick-hitting atmospheric river in the Pacific
Northwest and a new set of cold fronts moving through the Midwest/Great
Lakes and into Eastern U.S. The unsettled weather across the Pacific
Northwest and northern California will bring cooler temperatures and areas
of heavy rainfall to the coastal ranges. Locally a few inches of
additional rainfall is expected with this latest Pacific moisture surge,
and while the rainfall is expected to largely be beneficial, there may be
an isolated concern for some flooding. Meanwhile, areas of heavy
accumulating snowfall are expected for the higher elevations of the
Cascades and especially northern Washington where the high terrain may 12
to 18+ inches through early Friday. Some of this moisture will spill over
into the upslope ares of the northern Rockies as the next Pacific front
moves through the Intermountain Region, and this will bring some locally
heavy snow here as well.

High pressure will largely control the weather pattern across much of the
Southwest U.S. and out across the southern Plains, resulting in pleasantly
warm and dry conditions. Temperatures are expected to be above normal for
this time of year. However, by Friday, a strong cold front moving in from
Canada will allow for much colder temperatures to surge into portions of
the Dakotas, and especially the Upper Midwest which will set the stage for
a cold start to the weekend with below normal temperatures. Low pressure
associated with the inclement weather across the West will be ejecting out
across the northern Plains and Midwest by Saturday and this will set the
stage for at least a swath of light snowfall north of the low track.

Farther east, in the wake of low pressure exiting the Northeast, and a
trailing cold front clearing much of the East Coast, high pressure will
allow for cooler temperatures for Thursday with much of the Northeast U.S.
in particular seeing temperatures below normal. However, on Friday, a new
set of cold fronts will be crossing through the Midwest and moving quickly
into the Eastern U.S. Returning moisture ahead of these fronts will set
the stage for showers and thunderstorms to impact much of the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley region on down to the central Gulf Coast. Rain will also
overspread portions of the Great Lakes and the Northeast. There may be
some severe weather focused across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys in particular, and the Storm Prediction Center has depicted a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather for south-central Kentucky
through middle Tennessee where a threat for large hail may materialize.
More regionally, there may also be some gusty winds with the stronger
thunderstorms before the cold front advances through the area. These
aforementioned fronts should arrive along the East Coast by early Saturday.

Orrison/Hamrick

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php