Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 09 2025 - 00Z Tue Nov 11 2025

...Frigid airmass descends into Central U.S. this weekend spreading into
the Southeast on Monday while the West warms up...

...Snowy, very cold and windy from Northern Plains to Great Lakes this
weekend...

...Critical fire weather in southern Texas on Sunday...

An unusually strong surge of polar airmass is in store for much of the
eastern two-thirds of country over the next few days.  The leading edge of
this polar air mass is already plunging southward through the northern
Plains this Saturday afternoon.  This polar plunge will be in stark
contrast with the increasingly mild conditions across the West and across
the East this weekend.  The strong temperature contrast between the
central and the eastern U.S. will work in concert with a deepening
upper-level trough to spawn and intensify a low pressure system which will
traverse the entire eastern half of the country over the next couple of
days.  A swath of wet snow is forecast to follow the northern edge of the
low pressure system, spreading across the Midwest this afternoon, reaching
into lower Michigan tonight.  The lower Great Lakes should see the
precipitation starting out as rain on Sunday but as colder air arrives
behind the low pressure system, periods of snow with falling temperatures
along with windy conditions are expected on Monday.  Areas near the
southern shore of Lake Michigan including Chicago could be impacted by a
period of locally enhanced snowfall Sunday night when a smaller scale low
pressure system could form over the relatively warm Lake Michigan. 
Meanwhile, the western slopes of the central Appalachians can expect to
see periods of snow later on Monday as well.

Across the South and the East Coast, broad southerly flow ahead of the
intensifying low pressure system will bring very mild conditions for
November over the weekend before the arrival of sharply falling
temperatures associated with the polar surge.  High temperatures of 70
degrees could reach as far north as the nation's capital Sunday afternoon
together with passing thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic.  A higher
chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected across southern half of
New England later Sunday and Sunday night.  A potent cold front will sweep
through the East Coast and then out into the Atlantic Sunday night with
passing showers and embedded thunderstorms up and down the East Coast. 
This will be followed by sharply falling temperatures and increasingly
blustery winds from the west on Monday.  High temperatures will struggle
to reach the freezing mark on Monday along the central and central
Appalachians while below freezing temperatures are forecast to reach deep
into the South by Monday morning.  Freeze Watches and Warnings are already
posted for many areas across the southern Plains to the Deep South.

In the West, an upper ridge will be amplifying as the polar plunge occurs
in the central and eastern U.S.  The upper ridge will expand the
unseasonably warm temperatures into the northern High Plains by Monday. 
Meanwhile, increasing winds and dry conditions are forecast to support
critical fire weather conditions for portions of southern Texas on Sunday,
according to the Storm Prediction Center.  Across the Pacific Northwest,
rain associated with the next system from the Pacific is forecast to
arrive on Monday.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php