Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 18 2026 - 12Z Fri Feb 20 2026

...Widespread heavy snow continues for the Sierra as well as the ranges of
the Intermountain West...

...A swath of wintry weather expected from the Upper Midwest to New
England; another storm will bring snow to portions of the northern and
central Plains Wednesday into Thursday...

...Well above average temperatures expected through mid-week for the
central to eastern U.S. while the western U.S. remains cooler and well
below average...

The amplified western trough continues to produce multiple shortwaves that
will eject out into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies through the
period. The frontal boundary and associated shortwave will continue to
move across the Northwest on Wednesday bringing copious amounts of
moisture, which will support a active storm track across western U.S. into
the Plains. With the enhanced lift and moisture advection ahead of the
front, widespread precipiation is expected with chances for heavy snow
across the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and Rockies. Chances for snow
accumulations to exceed 8" will be the highest over southern Cascades and
southern Oregon coastal ranges. Late Thursday, precipiation will start to
diminish over the Pacific Northwest/Intermountain West as a ridging
pattern begins to build. Another shortwave will bring chances for heavy
mountain snow over the Sierra Nevada through Thursday and will spill over
into the Four Corners region through Friday. Otherwise, local rainfall is
expected to continue over much of the western U.S. through Thursday with
residual precipiation over the Four Corners, Nevada and parts of
California through Friday.

The frontal boundary that is trailing the surface low over the Plains will
begin to sag southward on Wednesday and will sweep across into the Upper
Midwest, bringing a chance for a wintry mix across parts of
northern/central Plains into the Great Lakes. Precipiation will change
over to snow behind the front, bringing moderate snow to portions of the
northern High Plains on Wednesday. Moderate to heavy snow is expected over
northern/central Plains on Thursday as the system moves eastward. As the
front continues to pull moisture northward from the Gulf and the shortwave
troughs lift north-northeastward, chances for thunderstorms will increase.
Therefore, Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms with the threat for damaging gusty winds and chances for a
few tornadoes for parts of the lower/middle Ohio Valley for Thursday. The
system will gradually move eastward across into the Ohio Valley,
Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, bringing rain and high-elevation snow through
Friday. 

In addition, drier conditions continue over parts of Southern and Central
Plains as gusty winds, abnormal warmer temperatures, and low relative
humidity values persist. Therefore, Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted a Critical Risk (level 2/3) for parts of the central and
southern High Plains for Wednesday.

An amplified upper-pattern with broad mean upper-ridging over the central
to eastern U.S. and a deep upper-trough over the west will keep conditions
above average to the east and below average to the west through mid-week.
The greatest anomalies are expected for portions of the central Plains
into the Midwest where highs in the 70s are upwards of 30 to 40 degrees
above mid-February averages. Elsewhere, highs generally range in the 30s
and 40s through the northern tier, 50s and 60s from the Ohio Valley
through the Mid-Atlantic, and 70s and 80s from the southern Plains to the
Southeast. In contrast, the upper-trough and active pattern over the west
will keep highs mostly in the 30s throughout the Intermountain West, 40s
for the Pacific Northwest, 50s for California, and 60s into the Desert
Southwest.

Oudit/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php