Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 11 2026 - 12Z Sat Jun 13 2026

...There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Great Lakes to the Middle Mississippi Valley on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Thursday and over the Northeast to the
Mid-Atlantic on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains and Ohio/Tennessee Valley on
Saturday...

A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes/Middle Valley to the Central
Plains will move to the Northeast, cross the Southeast, then head
northward into the Middle Mississippi Valley by Saturday morning.
Upper-level energy will help produce showers and severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic through Friday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms include frequent lightning, severe wind gusts, and
hail.

In addition, as the front moves eastward across the Upper Midwest, the
showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great
Lakes to the Middle Mississippi Valley on Thursday. Therefore, the SPC
issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Great Lakes to the Middle Mississippi Valley through Friday morning.
The associated heavy rain will mainly cause localized flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas most vulnerable.

The showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over the region.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes on
Thursday into Friday morning. On Friday, the threat of excessive rainfall
decreases to a Marginal Risk extending from the Northeast to the
Mid-Atlantic, then westward across the Tennessee Valley and into the
Central/Southern Plains.

However, there is a threat of severe thunderstorms extending from parts of
the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic from Friday through Saturday morning.
Additionally, upper-level energy will trigger showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains overnight Friday.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will be created over parts of the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as the boundary moves eastward on Friday.
Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida
through Saturday.

On Saturday, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of the Ohio/Tennessee/Middle /Lower Mississippi Valleys and
Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the area on Saturday.
Lastly, moisture surging northward over Western Mexico will move into the
Southwest, creating showers and thunderstorms over parts of the region by
Saturday morning.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php