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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1916Z Mar 22, 2017)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 316 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 Valid 00Z Thu Mar 23 2017 - 00Z Sat Mar 25 2017 ...Severe weather is possible on Thursday across the Southern/Central High Plains... ...Conditions will be ripe for wildfire production from the Four Corners to the Southern/Central High Plains... ...Wet weather likely from northern California up to the Pacific Northwest coast... The upper pattern will be quite amplified during the period with the primary system of interest entering the Desert Southwest by later tonight. As this upper trough churns eastward, it is expected to become more closed off in nature which will slow its forward progression. This particular feature will help set the stages for well above normal temperatures, on the order of 15 to 20 degrees above climatology, across the center of the country on Thursday. Further, per the recent outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, some thunderstorms may become severe across the Southern/Central High Plains. This should especially be the case along the dry line/advancing cold front. Besides the threat for severe storms, an enhanced threat for wildfire production is in place given dry gusty winds across the Four Corners region into the adjacent High Plains. Besides the heavy rainfall/severe weather threat, expect accumulating snows underneath the parent upper low across the Southern/Central Rockies. The current forecast suggests amounts in the 6 to 12 inch range over the higher elevations of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. Further east, a northward lifting warm front will keep conditions unsettled from Nebraska eastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes region. The heaviest rainfall amounts are expected across Nebraska which will be closer to the comma-head of precipitation near the deep surface cyclone. Elsewhere, a deep upper trough along the West Coast will spread moderate to locally heavy precipitation to areas from coastal Central California northward to the international border with Canada. As usual, orographics will play a key role in placement of the more concentrated activity. The heaviest amounts may be across the Siskiyou and Shasta Ranges where the onshore flow and vertical motions will be strongest. And lastly, the eastern seaboard can expect a cool Thursday morning with temperature anomalies approximately 10 to 15 degrees below average. This is in response to a substantial radiational cooling night given a strong surface anticyclone in place. Rubin-Oster Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php