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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 1925Z Apr 20, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 324 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024 Valid 00Z Sun Apr 21 2024 - 00Z Tue Apr 23 2024 ..There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... ...Light snow over parts of the Cascades on Saturday night into Sunday... ...Strong to severe thunderstorms from the southern Mid-Atlantic, Southeast to the Southern Plains... A front extending from the Southeast westward to the Western Gulf Coast will slowly move southward of the Florida Peninsula by Monday evening. Showers with strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along the boundary. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the Central Gulf Coast through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Additionally, a second area of showers with strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. The showers and thunderstorms will also produce heavy rain over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. On Sunday, the strong to severe thunderstorm threat and the excessive rainfall threat have come to an end. However, showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Southeast to the Central Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, a front over the Pacific Northwest/Northern Intermountain Region will move eastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Central Plains and then to the Great Basin by Monday evening. The system will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast through Sunday evening. Furthermore, overnight Saturday, light snow will develop over the Cascades and parts of the Northern Intermountain Region by early Sunday morning, ending overnight Sunday. On Monday, as the boundary moves onto the Plains, a weak plum of moisture flows from the Western Gulf of Mexico to the Upper Midwest, aiding in the development of rain over parts of the Northern Plains and the Upper Mississippi Valley. Elsewhere, a front moving across Florida will produce showers with strong to severe thunderstorms. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php