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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 2012Z Aug 17, 2022)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 411 PM EDT Wed Aug 17 2022 Valid 00Z Thu Aug 18 2022 - 00Z Sat Aug 20 2022 ...Flash flood risk intensifies in the Southwest as an already active Monsoon season ramps up... ...Showers and thunderstorms remains persistant across the Southeast and Southern Plains... ...Hot weather continues for California and the Northwest with numerous heat advisories in place... The flash flood risk across the Southwest associated with an already active Monsoon season will increase further over the next couple of days as a mid-level low associated with a former tropical wave leads to an increase in moisture and instability on top of the Monsoonal moisture already in place. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall Thursday for portions of southwestern Utah and Arizona for areal average rainfall totals between 0.5-1", with locally higher totals possible across far southern Arizona closer to the influence of the mid-level low. The threat increases Friday for potentially much more siginficant rainfall, and a Moderate Risk has been issued for southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Areal average rainfall totals increase to 2"+, a notably high amount for a widespread area which may lead to major flood-related impacts. Meanwhile, persistant shower and thunderstorm chances continue from the Southeast to the Southern Plains along a wavey stationary front which will remain in the area through the end of the forecast period. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for portions of southeastern Georgia as well as southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi where more continuous rounds of storms and high rain rates may lead to locally heavier rainfall totals of 3"+ and a few instances of flash flooding. Outside of the heavy rainfall threat, hot weather will remain in place across California and the Northwest under the influence of an upper-level ridge. There are numerous heat-related advisories in effect for the central Valleys of California, most of the interior Pacific Northwest, and the nothern Great Basin as highs reach into the upper 90s and low 100s Thursday and Friday. The heat threat will be most intense across the Colubmia River Valley in central Washignton where highs up to 105 and lows dropping only into the upper-60s and low 70s are up to 20 degrees above normal for the region. The urban areas from Seattle south to Portland will also see hot temperatures in the mid- to upper 90s Thursday before an upper-level trough approaches from the Pacific and the ridge shifts eastward, providing a return to more normal temperatures Friday and a break from the heat. Elsewhere, high temperatures approaching 100 along with high humidity will lead to heat indices around 110 for portions of southeastern Texas Thursday while highs will be around normal for the Plains and Midwest. Persistant clouds and some rain will lead to much cooler highs in the 60s in New England as a low pressure system departs northeastward into Canada. On Friday, a cold front moving southward through the Plains will drop temepartures into the 70s for the Northern Plains while warmer highs approaching 90 return to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Putnam Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php