Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Jan 17 2025 - 12Z Sun Jan 19 2025

...Arctic front begins to bring hazardous cold to much of the nation this
weekend...

...Wintry mix for the Midwest/Northeast and rain for the Southeast Friday
into Saturday...

...Snow showers with some moderate accumulations expected through the
Northern/Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains...

A clipper system will move quickly across the northern Plains into the
Midwest Friday and the Northeast by Saturday, bringing a wintry mix of
rain and snow showers ahead of a sweeping cold front. Precipitation totals
should remain on the lighter side for most locations through Saturday,
with only some light snow accumulations expected for some of the higher
elevations of the Appalachians. More moderate totals are expected where
post-frontal flow across the Great Lakes will lead to some lake-effect
snow showers for favorable downwind locations, especially along the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan and east of Lake Ontario. Some potentially more
impactful snow is becoming more likely for the Northeast on Sunday just
beyond the current forecast period. Further South, moist return flow from
the Gulf of Mexico will lead to heavier rain showers ahead of the trailing
cold front through the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley and the Southeast
late Friday and into early Saturday. Some wintry precipitation will be
possible following the frontal passage for the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on
Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue ahead of the front as it
passes into northern Florida by Saturday evening, with more potent locally
heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding possible. 

This sweeping cold front will begin to usher in a frigid Arctic airmass
that will be one of the main national weather stories this weekend and
into the next week. Temperatures will plunge by 30-40 degrees Saturday
after above average conditions on Friday. Forecast highs Saturday range
from the single digits and teens in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest, the
teens and 20s for the central Plains and Midwest, and the 30s and 40s into
the Southern Plains/northern Texas. Wind chills upwards of 20-30 degrees
below zero are expected for the northern Plains. Unfortunately, this is
only just the tip of the iceberg, as even colder temperatures will expand
in coverage beyond the current forecast period. Conditions will be at or
above average ahead of the front along the East Coast and the Southeast
through Saturday, with highs the next couple of days in the 30s and 40s
for the Northeast, the 40s and 50s from the Ohio Valley east through the
Carolinas, and the 60s and low 70s for the Southeast.

Upslope flow following the passage of the front along the Rockies will
lead to some scattered snow showers with light to moderate accumulations
for the northern Rockies/High Plains Friday and the central and southern
Rockies/High Plains Friday into Saturday. Gusty winds are also expected
across portions of the Plains and along the Front Range of the Rockies.
This may lead to some blowing snow in the northern Plains. Dry conditions
are expected for the Great Basin and West Coast, with high temperatures
generally around average. Forecast highs range from the 30s and 40s in the
Great Basin, the 40s for the Pacific Northwest, the 50s and 60s in
California, and the 60s to low 70s in the Desert Southwest.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php