Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 8 2026 - 00Z Wed Jun 10 2026

...Multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms expected for the
Central U.S. through Tuesday...

...Severe weather likely for portions of the Dakotas on Sunday and
Tuesday...

...Hot weather across the Plains and fire weather concerns continue for
the West...


An amplified upper level flow pattern will be in place across the
Continental U.S. through early this week, with a upper trough situated
across the northwestern quadrant of the country, and an upper ridge axis
across the Plains and Midwest. At the interface of these features will be
a couple of organized storm systems that will affect the northern Plains
through Tuesday. High instability and wind shear profiles are favorable
for the development of severe thunderstorms across the western Dakotas
tonight and another round expected on Tuesday, with an Enhanced Risk of
severe storms in the latest SPC convective outlook on both days. The main
threat with these storms will be damaging straight line winds from
organized lines of intense convection, with hurricane force wind gusts
possible with the strongest storms.

In terms of rainfall, the greatest concentration of slow moving storms
with heavy downpours is forecast to be across eastern portions of the
central Plains through early Monday, and extending to Kentucky and
Tennessee through Tuesday, where the potential currently exists for 1 to 3
inches of rainfall. There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from WPC
to account for this, extending from Illinois to northern Georgia. There is
also a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall through tonight across northern
Alabama where very heavy rainfall has been a problem so far today. Rain is
also expected for western Washington and Oregon with onshore flow
increasing on Monday ahead of the next Pacific cold front.

In terms of temperatures, it will remain hot across the central Plains
going into Monday, but relief arrives across the Dakotas with a cold front
passing though the region. For the East Coast, a slight cool down along
with lower humidity is expected across the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast
to start the work week as a moderately strong cold front passes through
the region. Across the Intermountain West, fire weather concerns will
continue through Tuesday, with hot and dry conditions along with gusty
winds creating a favorable environment for potential wild fires.

Hamrick


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php