Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Valid 12Z Fri Jul 26 2024 - 12Z Sun Jul 28 2024

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across much of the South
with a risk for flash flooding Friday in the coastal Carolinas and
southeastern Texas...

...Storm chances for portions of the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains
heading into the weekend with severe weather possible Saturday...

...Monsoonal thunderstorms continue for portions of the Intermountain West
with isolated flash flooding possible...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across much of the South
along and ahead of a cold front slowly pushing southward through the
region. Plentiful moisture will bring the threat of some locally heavy
downpours. A couple upper-level waves, one over the Carolinas and another
to the west over the Southern Plains, will help to provide a focus for
some locally more widespread, intense downpours along the coastal
Carolinas and southeastern Texas. Wet antecedent conditions from rainfall
the past few days will increase the risk for some scattered flash
flooding, with Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in place. An
isolated threat for flash flooding will exist more broadly across the
region both Friday and Saturday. The presence of storms and general
cloudiness will help to keep temperatures near or below Summer-time
averages, especially over portions of eastern and central Texas, with
highs generally in the 80s.

A frontal boundary draped across the Upper Midwest/Northern Plains will be
the focus for daily thunderstorm chances heading into the weekend. More
widely scattered storms are expected Friday before a passing upper-level
shortwave helps to encourage more widespread storms on Saturday.
Sufficient instability along with the arrival of stronger winds aloft
bringing increasing deep-layer shear is expected to result in at least a
few more intense thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) for portions of northwestern
Minnesota and eastern North Dakota for the threat of some large hail as
well as damaging winds, particularly if storms can organize into a
convective system into the evening hours. High temperatures will remain
rather hot across the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest, with
highs in the 90s upwards of 10-15 degrees above average.

Monsoonal showers will continue across portions of the Intermountain West
Friday and Saturday, particularly from the Southwest north through the
Rockies and central Great Basin. Deep moisture lingering through the area
will bring the threat for some locally intense downpours. Isolated
instances of flash flooding will remain possible, particularly for terrain
sensitive areas such as burn scars. Forecast highs across the West will
generally be below average with an upper-level trough overhead, with highs
in the 80s and 90s across the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, Rockies, and
interior California, and 60s and 70s along the Pacific Coast. The Desert
Southwest will be much hotter, with highs in the low to mid-110s.
Elsewhere, conditions will be mostly dry from the Midwest to the Northeast
under the presence of high pressure. Forecast high temperatures Friday
will be a bit below average, with low to mid-80s forecast. Highs will warm
up a bit on Saturday, reaching into the mid- to upper 80s.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php