Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025

Valid 12Z Mon May 19 2025 - 12Z Wed May 21 2025

...Significant severe weather and flash flooding event expected today
across parts of the central/southern Plains and into the Ozarks...

...Severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall threat to shift into the Ohio
and Tennessee valleys on Tuesday...

...Above average temperatures and potentially record-breaking heat
continues across parts of South Texas and the Florida Peninsula, with a
warming trend beginning across California and the Southwest by midweek...


A maturing central U.S. storm system is expected to produce another round
of dangerous severe weather and instances of flash flooding today, with an
emphasis on eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks. From a broader perspective,
an expansive area of moderate to locally heavy rain is forecast to extend
from the northern Plains to North Texas as ample moisture streams
northward from the Gulf and wraps around a closed upper low churning over
the Dakotas. Rain could even mix with snow across the elevated terrain of
the Black Hills and other parts of the western Dakotas. Numerous
thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon where the greatest
moisture and instability overlap to the south over the central/southern
Plains. This area will be situated east of a sharp dryline over the
southern Plains and south of a lifting warm front stretching across the
mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast. These storms should quickly
grow upscale and turn severe while producing damaging wind gusts, very
large hail, and some potentially strong tornadoes. The Storm Prediction
Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms
across central/eastern Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas. Additionally,
the prospect of numerous thunderstorms tracking over relatively saturated
soils and sensitive terrain will create a concerning flash flooding
threat. Storms containing intense rainfall rates could dump over 2 to 3
inches of rainfall in a short period of time over northern Arkansas and
far southern Missouri. Here, a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive
Rainfall has been issued to highlight the potential for numerous and
locally significant flash flooding Heavy rain and scattered flash flooding
impacts are also possible across a larger area extending from southeast
Oklahoma into central Iowa, where a Slight Risk (level 2/4) is in effect.
Be sure to have multiple ways of receiving warnings, never drive through
flooded roadways, and remain weather aware as conditions can change
quickly.

A separate aspect of today's spring storm system across the central U.S.
will be associated with fire weather throughout the southern Rockies,
including areas from eastern Arizona to West Texas. Gusty winds combined
with low relative humidity and dry vegetation will allow for the rapid
spread of wildfires. Red Flag Warnings have been issued.

By Tuesday unsettled weather and severe thunderstorm chances are forecast
to shift east into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys, with an expansive area of
showers also including much of the northern Plains, Midwest, and
southern/central Appalachians. The greatest threat for strong
thunderstorms capable of all related hazard types are highlighted by an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms across western Kentucky
and Tennessee, as well as northern Mississippi and Alabama. Heavy rainfall
will also remain a concern as widespread amounts over 1 inch are in the
latest forecast throughout these regions, with locally higher totals
expected within locations experiencing strong storms throughout the Ohio
and Tennessee valleys. By Wednesday, the associated area of low pressure
will continue to push east towards the central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic spreading widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall, but
with the severe thunderstorm threat diminishing.

The temperature outlook through the middle of this week will remain rather
steady with above average temperatures along the Gulf Coast States, while
also gradually building into California and the Southwest. Highs are
forecast to reach into the mid-90s across parts of the Florida Peninsula
and South Texas, with triple digits possible in the Lone Star State. These
readings could approach several daily high temperature records as well.
For California, record-breaking heat potential starts on Wednesday as
highs reach into the 90s across southern California and triple digits in
the typically hot valley locations. Meanwhile, much cooler and well below
average temperatures are in store between the northern Plains and
Northeast, where highs will remain in the 50s and 60s as morning lows dip
into the 30s and 40s.


Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php