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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0903Z Jun 14, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 503 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Valid 12Z Fri Jun 14 2024 - 12Z Sun Jun 16 2024 ...A moderate risk of excessive rainfall remains in place across southern Florida today before the heavy rain threat slowly diminishes this weekend... ...A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms across the Northeast and into the northern Mid-Atlantic states today with a slight chance of severe weather... ...A round of heavy rain with possible severe weather is forecast for the central High Plains tonight, spreading northeast to reach the upper Midwest by Saturday night and Sunday morning... ...An intensifying low pressure system will bring a slight chance of severe weather across North Dakota early Sunday... ...Excessive heat remains a concern from portions of the Desert Southwest to the southern High Plains... The threat of heavy rain is expected to slowly diminish across southern Florida through the next couple of days as a low pressure center moves northeast off the southeastern U.S., pulling the axis of a trough of low pressure slightly off the coast of Florida early this morning. However, the proximity of the tropical moisture plume and the trough axis will likely touch off additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms across southern Florida today before subsiding just in time for the weekend. The already saturated and vulnerable soils/surfaces and urban areas of southern Florida will be sensitive to additional rainfall, where a moderate risk of excessive rainfall remains in place for today. Meanwhile, a cold front will steadily move across the northern tier states today and through the Northeast by Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front are forecast to develop across the Northeast and into the northern Mid-Atlantic states today where a slight chance of severe weather is in the forecast. A high pressure system and a shot of cooler air behind the front will bring fair weather and below normal temperatures for much of the northeastern section of the country in time for the weekend. Over the eastern Pacific, a rather vigorous upper trough will bring much cooler and windy weather across the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies through the next few days, even with a chance of wet snow over the high-elevations of the northern Cascades and northern Rockies Sunday morning. This weather pattern will also bring more rounds of active weather into the northern and central Plains. Meanwhile, excessive heat concerns will wane over the Southwest this weekend as a mid to upper-level disturbance moves east into the Plains. The disturbance will trigger some showers and thunderstorms over the central Plains behind a warm front Friday night into Saturday. The moisture plume will then lift farther northeast to bring a heavy rain threat up toward the upper Midwest on Saturday, before crossing southern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and possibly northern Iowa Saturday night into Sunday morning. The increasingly southerly flow ahead of the disturbance will also push the heat in the southern Plains farther northeast into Midwest, Ohio Valley, and toward the Great Lakes on Sunday. By Saturday night into Sunday morning, a low pressure system is forecast to develop over the northern High Plains and quickly intensify as it moves toward the northeast. This system will bring a threat of severe weather across North Dakota early on Sunday with blustery and much cooler conditions ushering in behind the system. Kong Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php