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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0751Z May 19, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 351 AM EDT Mon May 19 2025 Valid 12Z Mon May 19 2025 - 12Z Wed May 21 2025 ...Significant severe weather and flash flooding event expected today across parts of the central/southern Plains and into the Ozarks... ...Severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall threat to shift into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys on Tuesday... ...Above average temperatures and potentially record-breaking heat continues across parts of South Texas and the Florida Peninsula, with a warming trend beginning across California and the Southwest by midweek... A maturing central U.S. storm system is expected to produce another round of dangerous severe weather and instances of flash flooding today, with an emphasis on eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks. From a broader perspective, an expansive area of moderate to locally heavy rain is forecast to extend from the northern Plains to North Texas as ample moisture streams northward from the Gulf and wraps around a closed upper low churning over the Dakotas. Rain could even mix with snow across the elevated terrain of the Black Hills and other parts of the western Dakotas. Numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon where the greatest moisture and instability overlap to the south over the central/southern Plains. This area will be situated east of a sharp dryline over the southern Plains and south of a lifting warm front stretching across the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast. These storms should quickly grow upscale and turn severe while producing damaging wind gusts, very large hail, and some potentially strong tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms across central/eastern Oklahoma into far northwest Arkansas. Additionally, the prospect of numerous thunderstorms tracking over relatively saturated soils and sensitive terrain will create a concerning flash flooding threat. Storms containing intense rainfall rates could dump over 2 to 3 inches of rainfall in a short period of time over northern Arkansas and far southern Missouri. Here, a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued to highlight the potential for numerous and locally significant flash flooding Heavy rain and scattered flash flooding impacts are also possible across a larger area extending from southeast Oklahoma into central Iowa, where a Slight Risk (level 2/4) is in effect. Be sure to have multiple ways of receiving warnings, never drive through flooded roadways, and remain weather aware as conditions can change quickly. A separate aspect of today's spring storm system across the central U.S. will be associated with fire weather throughout the southern Rockies, including areas from eastern Arizona to West Texas. Gusty winds combined with low relative humidity and dry vegetation will allow for the rapid spread of wildfires. Red Flag Warnings have been issued. By Tuesday unsettled weather and severe thunderstorm chances are forecast to shift east into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys, with an expansive area of showers also including much of the northern Plains, Midwest, and southern/central Appalachians. The greatest threat for strong thunderstorms capable of all related hazard types are highlighted by an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms across western Kentucky and Tennessee, as well as northern Mississippi and Alabama. Heavy rainfall will also remain a concern as widespread amounts over 1 inch are in the latest forecast throughout these regions, with locally higher totals expected within locations experiencing strong storms throughout the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. By Wednesday, the associated area of low pressure will continue to push east towards the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic spreading widespread moderate to locally heavy rainfall, but with the severe thunderstorm threat diminishing. The temperature outlook through the middle of this week will remain rather steady with above average temperatures along the Gulf Coast States, while also gradually building into California and the Southwest. Highs are forecast to reach into the mid-90s across parts of the Florida Peninsula and South Texas, with triple digits possible in the Lone Star State. These readings could approach several daily high temperature records as well. For California, record-breaking heat potential starts on Wednesday as highs reach into the 90s across southern California and triple digits in the typically hot valley locations. Meanwhile, much cooler and well below average temperatures are in store between the northern Plains and Northeast, where highs will remain in the 50s and 60s as morning lows dip into the 30s and 40s. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php