Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
138 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Feb 12 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026

...Upper-level low pressure system brings precipiation chances across
portions of the South/Central Plains into the Southeast...

...Post-frontal snow expected for Great Lakes and higher elevation snow
for interior West...

...Above normal temperatures across much of central and southern U.S. over
the next few days...

A progressive upper-level pattern will evolve through the period with a
deepening trough over western U.S. and a downstream ridge across the
central Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley. The surface low over the
Southwest will gradually move into the southern/central Plains by Friday
and will lift into the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. As the southerly
flow advect moisture from the Gulf, chances for precipiation will increase
over potions of Southern Rockies and South/Central Plains into Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys as the cold front trails across central
U.S. by Saturday morning. Although rainfall from this system will
generally be beneficial, areas within the Southern Plains have been
highlighted for a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall with chances for
flash flooding on Friday. In addition, Storm Prediction Center has issued
a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across portions of west Texas,
with a risk for large hail associated with the storm. As the front
continues to move northeastward, rain will continue to spread into the
Southeast Friday evening into Saturday.

The cold air wrapping around the back side of the clipper system will
continue to bring lack-enhanced snow showers over the Great Lakes today
into early Friday. Heading into Friday night, additional snow bands will
be possible downwind of Lake Erie and Ontario and central New England
ranges into central Appalachians, as the trough continues to shift
eastward. Snow accumulations generally will be light to moderate, with
higher amounts over higher elevations. In addition, the southwest moisture
and eastern Pacific trough will bring chances for snow over the Cascades
on Friday and will spread into interior West through Saturday, but amounts
will remain light to moderate.

Above average temperatures will continue for much of CONUS, especially
over Central U.S. where temperatures will be 15-30 degrees above normal
with highs well in the 60s and 70s. Over western U.S., temperatures
generally will see highs in the 50s and 60s, while the Northeast will see
temperatures in the 30s and 40s.

Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php