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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0722Z Jun 29, 2022)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 322 AM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 29 2022 - 12Z Fri Jul 01 2022 ...Locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding remains possible across the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Southwest... ...Severe thunderstorms to potentially impact the northern Plains today, with well above average temperatures and critical fire weather extending from the central High Plains to the middle Missouri Valley... A typical summer weather pattern set up across the country is expected to largely remain intact through the beginning of July. A broad upper-level ridge and lingering stationary boundary draped across the southern U.S. will continue to trigger additional scattered thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast. High atmospheric moisture content and light winds aloft are anticipated to create an environment favorable for slow-moving thunderstorms with downpours and frequent lightning, similar to the last few days. Storms that can remain stationary for a longer duration will have greater chances of producing flash floods. Additionally, urban regions are also most at risk for ponding water over mostly impervious surfaces. Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of low pressure located in the western Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of development, tropical downpours associated with this system are forecast to edge westward toward the Texas coastal areas beginning this evening as more widespread heavy rainfall potentially moves onshore by Thursday. The other region under the threat of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is located across the Southwest. Monsoonal moisture in place is forecast to trigger additional showers and thunderstorms across Arizona today. By Thursday and Friday, an approaching system moving into the central Rockies will help funnel moisture northeastward into Colorado and eventually the central Plains. Even though much of this region could use the rainfall, downpours in these areas can quickly turn dangerous and lead to flash floods. Farther north, a cold front swinging across the north-central U.S. will have the potential to spark isolated-to-scattered severe weather through tonight. The areas most susceptible to severe storms are across the Dakotas and far northwestern Minnesota, where SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the most likely hazards, with a few tornadoes also possible. The marginal severe threat shifts eastward along the cold front on Thursday and into a region stretching from the central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. Ahead of the aforementioned cold front and associated thunderstorm activity, simmering heat is forecast across much of the central/northern Plains this afternoon. Highs are expected to reach into the upper-90s and triple digits from the central High Plains to South Dakota, which equates to around 20 degrees above average. Critical Fire Weather is also anticipated along with the brief and intense heat. Red Flag Warnings have been issued for parts of northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas, central/western Nebraska, and south-central South Dakota. Elsewhere, building heat and humidity will gradually shift eastward and into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Friday. Highs are likely to return to the low 90s for most locations. Snell Graphics are available at