Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Oct 09 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 11 2024

...Major Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall along the
west-central coast of Florida overnight Wednesday...

...Milton will bring life-threatening impacts to much of Florida including
a destructive storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds, and
catastrophic flash and urban flooding...

...Unseasonably warm temperatures continue over much of the western and
central U.S., some record-tying/breaking highs will be possible...

Major Hurricane Milton continues to churn across the Gulf of Mexico early
Wednesday morning and is forecast to move northeastward and make landfall
along the west coast of Florida late Wednesday/early Thursday. Expected
impacts include a large area of destructive storm surge, with highest
inundations of 10 feet or greater, and devastating hurricane-force winds
along portions of the west-central coast of Florida. Milton is expected to
remain a hurricane while it crosses the peninsula bringing these
life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, inland.
Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for
long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion as winds and
rain will begin to pick up rapidly through the day Wednesday as the storm
approaches. In addition, there is a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
4/4) Wednesday through at least mid-day Thursday across central and
northern portions of the peninsula. Extremely heavy rainfall totals
between 6 to 12 inches, locally up to 18 inches, will bring the risk of
catastrophic flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river
flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to
increase the overall flood threat. While Hurricane Milton is expected to
experience some weakening prior to landfall, the forecast for these
life-threatening impacts already takes this into account. Several
tornadoes will be possible as bands of thunderstorms move across the
central and southern Peninsula. The Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted portions of the central Peninsula in an Enhanced Risk (level
3/5) for the possibility of a strong tornado or two. Impacts from the
Hurricane will extend to the northeast along the southeastern Atlantic
Coast Thursday with life-threatening storm surge and gusty winds forecast.
Some rain will be possible, though the current forecast keeps the heaviest
rain off the coast over the Atlantic.

The rest of the country will be mostly quiet precipitation-wise other than
some showers for the interior Northeast/New England and the Pacific
Northwest Wednesday. The main story continues to be unseasonably warm
temperatures over much of the central and western U.S. under the presence
of upper-level ridging. Forecast highs are 10-20 degrees above average for
many locations, particularly over the northern Plains. Most will see highs
in the 80s across the Great Basin, Rockies, and northern/central Plains.
Even hotter temperatures into the low to mid-90s are expected for Texas
and interior central/southern California, with 100s in the Desert
Southwest. A few daily record-tying/breaking highs are possible,
particularly in the Desert Southwest. A cold front will bring cooler, more
seasonable temperatures in the 60s and low 70s to the northern Great
Basin/Rockies/High Plains on Thursday. In contrast, much of the eastern
U.S. will be more seasonable for Fall, and even a bit cool along the
northern tier. Forecast highs range in the 50s in the Upper Great
Lakes/Interior Northeast, the 60s and 70s for the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio
Valley, and the 70s and 80s in the South. Some patchy morning frost will
be possible for areas of the Upper Great Lakes/New England.

Putnam 

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php