Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Mon Aug 03 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 03 2026 - 12Z Wed Aug 05 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Northern Mid-Atlantic/New England, Carolina Coast, the Eastern Gulf
Coast of Florida, and the Southwest on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest on Tuesday and over parts of the Upper Great Lakes, Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Upper Midwest on Monday...

A front extending from the Northeast, along the Appalachians and then
across the Central Gulf Coast into Texas will move eastward off the
Northeast Coast across the Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Appalachians and
westward into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop from the Northeast to the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast Coast, and along the Eastern Gulf Coast. There will
be three areas of a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over the
eastern part of the country on Monday. One area of a Slight Risk (level
2/4) over Northern New England /Northern Mid-Atlantic, the second over the
Carolina Coast, and a third over the Gulf Coast of Florida. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable.

On Tuesday, the northern part of the boundary will move off the Northeast
and Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast. At the same time, the rest of the front
will be quasi-stationary from the Southern Mid-Atlantic, Southern
Appalachians, and westward into the Lower Mississippi Valley through
Wednesday. There will be showers and thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic
into the Southeast and the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast. The threat of
excessive rainfall will diminish to a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the
Central/Southern Appalachians on Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable.

A second front over the Northern Plains into the Great Basin on Monday
will move slowly eastward to the Upper Great Lakes, the Central/Southern
Plains, and then into the Southern Rockies by Wednesday morning. The
boundary will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains on Monday. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains on Monday through Tuesday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Upper Great Lakes/Middle
Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Additionally, on Wednesday, the WPC increases the excessive rainfall
threat to a Slight Risk (level 2/4) from Southwestern Lake Michigan into
the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these
thunderstorms from Southwestern Lake Michigan into the Middle Mississippi
Valley and Central Plains on Wednesday.  The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. 
Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will extend over the eastern and
central part of the country on Tuesday into Wednesday.

Moreover, monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain over parts of the Southwest through Wednesday morning.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms over the Southwest on Monday and
Tuesday.  The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable.  Showers and thunderstorms will continue
over the area on Wednesday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php