Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 12Z Fri May 15 2026 - 12Z Sun May 17 2026

...Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms across much of Iowa with a slight
risk extending down to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles for today and
tonight...

...Next round of strong to severe thunderstorms forecast for the northern
Plains Saturday night into Sunday morning...

...Heat builds across the central Plains as cool and unsettled weather
spreads into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies...

A nearly stationary front extending across the midsection of the country
will be the focus for rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms through the
next couple of days.  A weak warm front  lifting northward will interact
with the stationary front and enhance thunderstorm development in the
vicinity of Iowa especially by late afternoon into this evening. 
Thunderstorms could also become severe farther southwest across the
central Plains to the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles especially later today
and tonight.  Temperatures across the central to southern Plains soaring
well into the 90s to the 100s will add fuel to the thunderstorms.  Some of
these high temperatures could break daily records for some locations.

Rain across New England will make for a cool and damp start for today.  As
the associated upper low begins to move offshore, the rain is forecast to
taper off as the day progresses.  A high pressure system behind the
departing upper low will bring cool and fine weather for the remainder of
the East Coast today but the heat over the midsection of the country will
spread eastward, warming the high temperatures into the 80s for much of
the East Coast on Saturday.  Temperatures in New England will also recover
into the 70s and 80s on Saturday before showers and embedded thunderstorms
arrive later on Saturday before they gradually taper off by Sunday morning
ahead of a cold front.

Meanwhile, cool and increasingly unsettled weather is forecast for the
Pacific Northwest, gradually spreading into the northern Rockies as the
weekend progresses.  This is in response to the arrival of the next upper
trough along with the passage of a cold front.  Rain will be spreading
farther inland with high elevation snow/mixed precipitation for the
interior Pacific reaching into the northern Rockies early on Sunday. 
Winds will be gusty as a low pressure system begins to expand and develop
over the northern and central High Plains early on Sunday.  This
developing low pressure system will also trigger a somewhat more
widespread round of strong to severe thunderstorms across the northern
Plains Saturday night, reaching into the upper Midwest early on Sunday.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php