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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0800Z May 07, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 12Z Wed May 07 2025 - 12Z Fri May 09 2025 ...Widespread showers and storms to bring scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding to portions of the central Gulf Coast Wednesday... ...Pesky weather pattern of showers and storms across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast continues... ...Cooler, well below average temperatures persist across much of the southern tier of the country as the north-central and western U.S. see above average temperatures... The Omega block that has dominated the upper-level pattern across the CONUS the last few days, anchored by an eastern upper-low over the Ohio Valley and a second, western upper-low over the Southwest will finally begin to evolve through mid-week, though general upper troughing over the East and South will continue to bring unsettled weather. The upper-low over the Southwest has begun to progress eastward over the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary reinforced by ongoing convection overnight stretches east to west just north of the Gulf Coast. Anomalously high Gulf moisture pooling along the boundary and upper-level support from the approaching low will provide a focus for yet another complex of storms expected to develop along the western Gulf Coast and move eastward along the boundary through the central Gulf Coast. Saturated soils from overnight rainfall and long-duration, heavy rainfall from the second complex to move through today will bring the risk of scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding, with a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) for southeastern Louisiana and a broader Slight Risk (level 2/4) along the central Gulf Coast. Warmer temperatures south of the boundary across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast/south Texas will lead to enough instability for some stronger, severe thunderstorms with the Storm Prediction Center outlining a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather, mainly for the threat of large hail. Additional widespread storms are expected throughout a broad warm sector ahead of a secondary cold front across the Tennessee/Middle Mississippi Valleys and central Plains, with some locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding possible. Another round of storms is expected Thursday from western/southern Texas east along the Gulf Coast as the boundary remains in place, with locally heavy rainfall expected and isolated flash flooding possible. A more focused corridor of storms over saturated soils across Louisiana may lead to a few more scattered instances of flash flooding, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in place to cover this threat. Similar to Wednesday, a broad area of showers and storms is also expected further north ahead of the secondary cold front over much of the Southeast. Some lingering showers are expected across the interior Northeast today as the other upper-low that had been anchored over the Ohio Valley finally shifts eastward as an open wave over the Atlantic. However, upper-level shortwave energy dropping southward from Canada and an accompanying surface cold front sweeping southeastward will bring another round of storms to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Increasing moisture ahead of the boundary and the tendency for storms to move northeastward parallel to the boundary will bring some locally heavier rainfall totals, particularly focused across some of the higher terrain of northeastern Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, and southern New York, where another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for scattered instances of flash flooding. Elsewhere, daily thunderstorm chances are expected along the Atlantic coast of Florida ahead of the stationary boundary along the Gulf Coast, with some heavier downpours and isolated flash flooding possible. Some lingering isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will also continue throughout the Four Corners region as the Southwest upper-low slowly departs the region. A Pacific system will bring some light precipitation chances to the Pacific Northwest Wednesday and then inland through the northern Rockies/High Plains Thursday. Cooler, below average temperatures will continue across much of the southern U.S. from the Southwest through the central/southern Plains and into the Southeast with the upper-low/broad troughing dominating the pattern and widespread precipitation chances. Highs will generally range in the 60s and 70s with some 80s expected through the Deserts and for more southern locations across Texas and east along the Gulf Coast. Closer to average temperatures will return to much of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Wednesday as the Upper-low departs the region, with highs into the 70s. A cold front will bring cooler, below average conditions back to the Great Lakes Thursday as highs fall into the 50s and 60s. In contrast, well above average temperatures will continue across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest with a lingering upper-high over head, with highs in the 70s to low 80s. Above to well above average conditions will also expand over much of the West as a ridge builds northward in the wake of the departing upper-low, with 60s and 70s across the Pacific Northwest and Interior West. High temperatures into the 90s will come to the central California Valleys and Desert Southwest by Thursday. Generally average high temperatures are expected along the East Coast, with 60s and 70s for New England and 70s into the 80s south through the Mid-Atlantic and into the Carolinas. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php