Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 21 2024 - 00Z Tue Apr 23 2024

..There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Light snow over parts of the Cascades on Saturday night into Sunday...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms from the southern Mid-Atlantic,
Southeast to the Southern Plains...

A front extending from the Southeast westward to the Western Gulf Coast
will slowly move southward of the Florida Peninsula by Monday evening.
Showers with strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along the
boundary. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the Central Gulf
Coast through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Additionally, a second area of showers with strong to severe thunderstorms
will develop over parts of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Southern Plains through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

The showers and thunderstorms will also produce heavy rain over parts of
the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these
thunderstorms through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Sunday, the strong to severe thunderstorm threat and the excessive
rainfall threat have come to an end. However, showers and thunderstorms
will continue over parts of the Southeast to the Central Gulf Coast.

Meanwhile, a front over the Pacific Northwest/Northern Intermountain
Region will move eastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Central
Plains and then to the Great Basin by Monday evening. The system will
produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast through Sunday
evening. Furthermore, overnight Saturday, light snow will develop over the
Cascades and parts of the Northern Intermountain Region by early Sunday
morning, ending overnight Sunday.

On Monday, as the boundary moves onto the Plains, a weak plum of moisture
flows from the Western Gulf of Mexico to the Upper Midwest, aiding in the
development of rain over parts of the Northern Plains and the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Elsewhere, a front moving across Florida will produce
showers with strong to severe thunderstorms.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php