Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
Valid 00Z Sat Mar 25 2017 - 00Z Mon Mar 27 2017
...Thunderstorms, potentially severe, are possible from the eastern Plains
to the Mississippi River Valley through tonight, shifting eastward
...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley...
...High winds will couple with dry conditions behind a strong cold front
to produce fire weather concerns across the Southern Plains...
...Heavy snow possible over the Sierras, and southern Cascades through
A potent low pressure system continues to slowly make its way across the
central plains this afternoon, with a strong cold protruding southward
nearing the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. A secondary
boundary protrudes eastward from the low pressure system, stretching from
the Central Plains to New England. This low pressure system is providing a
deep flow of warm moist air off of the Gulf of Mexico on its eastward
extent. These frontal boundaries, specifically the cold front moving
across the plains and into the Mississippi Valley, will provide an area of
ascent, allowing this warm, moist and unstable airmass to rise into the
atmosphere and interact with colder air.
Rain, heavy at times, and thunderstorms are expected as a result along and
just ahead of the cold front over the next couple of days as it advances
eastward. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. The Storm
Prediction Center has outlined a small region that stretches across east
TX and the Ark-LA-Tex region as being in an Enhanced Risk for severe
weather this evening and overnight, with conditions favorable for
producing damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. A Slight Risk area is
also in place across much of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley Area.
By tomorrow, the Slight Risk for severe weather shifts southeast with the
progression of the cold front and low pressure system, encompassing much
of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Please refer to the Storm
Prediction Center website for more information: www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov.
Behind the this cold front, strong winds are coupling with a very dry
airmass to produce High Wind Warnings and Red Flag Conditions across much
for the Southern Plains. Any fires that develop could spread rapidly and
become difficult to control.
Meanwhile, precipitation associated with the west-east oriented frontal
boundary will generally be in the form of rain, though some thunderstorms
will be possible just south of the Great Lakes. Areas north of the frontal
boundary could see colder air mixing in with the precipitation to produce
mixed precipitation over the next few days, mainly across the Upper Great
Lakes and the Northeast.
Finally, another system impacting the northwestern U.S. will continue to
move inland over the next couple of days. Expect rain to persist along the
Pacific Coast through Saturday, before tapering off. Rain and higher
elevation snow will persist through much of the weekend inland into the
Northern and Central Rockies. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm
Warnings remain in effect through the tonight for portions of the Sierra
Nevada Mountain Range and northern California, South-central Washington,
and eastern Nevada. Flood watches and warnings are also in effect for
portions of the Northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. A stronger
disturbance is poised to near the Pacific Northwest to end out the weekend
and start the workweek.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php