Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 03 2023 - 00Z Mon Jun 05 2023

...Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Gulf of Mexico...

...There are Moderate Risks of Excessive Rainfall over the Texas Panhandle
& northern High Plains; Enhanced Risk for severe weather in the southern
High Plains this afternoon...

...Stormy weather to linger in the Rockies & Plains...

...Prolonged summer heat in the North Central U.S; cooler temperatures
return to the Northeast & Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

A large-scale blocking pattern over North America is leading to a series
of upper level disturbances tracking across the southern tier and off the
East Coast this weekend, while a robust ridge of high pressure forms over
the North Central U.S, and southern Canada. This pattern aided in the
formation of Tropical Storm Arlene today, which is located in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Fortunately, the storm will track south and pose no threat
to Florida, eventually dissipating later this weekend as it tracks towards
northern Cuba. However, daily rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will be common each afternoon across the Florida Peninsula this weekend.
There is a Marginal Risk (threat level 1/4) in southern Florida, as well
as in New England as a cold front makes its way south this afternoon.

The stormiest weather will reside from the southern and central High
Plains to the northern Rockies. Southeasterly flow continues to usher in
anomalous moisture content into these regions, who have also received well
above normal rainfall over the past 2-4 weeks. Given the combination of
sensitive soils and downpours within thunderstorms, a pair of Moderate
Risks (threat level 3/4) for Excessive Rainfall are in place over eastern
Montana and the Texas Panhandle today. There are also Slight Risks (threat
level 2/4) in the southern High Plains and both central Montana and
northern Wyoming. Regarding severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center
has an Enhanced Risk area (threat level 3/5) in west Texas, with a larger
Slight Risk area (threat level 2/5) encompassing more of the southern High
Plains. Severe storms may contain a combination of tornadoes, large hail,
and damaging wind gusts. By Saturday, the Excessive Rainfall Marginal Risk
footprint stretches from the Rio Grande River on north through the central
Plains/Rockies and into northern Montana. The area most at-risk for flash
flooding is in the southern High Plains where a Slight Risk is in place.

Temperature-wise, following a day of record heat in the Northeast and
Great Lakes, hot conditions will persist through the weekend from the
Northern Plains and Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes. Record warmth
is anticipated in the Upper Mississippi Valley and parts of the Ohio
Valley on Saturday. While not as many records are set to be broken on
Sunday, daytime highs will continue to range between 10-20 degrees above
normal from the Dakotas to the Great Lakes. The West Coast, particularly
areas farther inland, can also expect hotter than normal conditions, while
the immediate coastline stays on the seasonably cool side. After a rather
hot Friday in the Northeast, a cold front will race south along the
Eastern Seaboard and deliver a cooler than normal air-mass to coastal New
England on Saturday, then into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Cooler than
normal temperatures look to stick around in the southern and central
Rockies and Plains due to the ongoing cloudy and stormy stretch of
weather.


Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php