Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Jul 06 2025 - 12Z Tue Jul 08 2025

...Slow-moving thunderstorms will lead to additional threat of localized
flash flooding over saturated grounds in central Texas...

...Center of Tropical Storm Chantal making landfall over eastern
South Carolina with heavy rain, strong to gale force winds, and the threat
of flash flooding across nearby coastal plain...

...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move across the upper
Midwest/Great Lakes followed by rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms
across the northern and central High Plains...

...Heat and humidity will shift from the Great Lakes to the East Coast as
heat begins to build across the interior western U.S. through the next
couple of days ...

As a small-scale mid-level vortex begins to collapse and dips southward
through South Texas toward Mexico early this morning, much of the
flood-ravaged region of central Texas should expect a lessening threat of
widespread torrential rainfall.  However, given the already saturated
grounds and abundant moisture remaining in the area, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms can be expected to develop at any moment in the area. With
weak winds aloft, any thunderstorms that develop will be moving very
slowly, which would lead to heavy downpours to linger over the same
locations for relatively long duration, resulting in a continued threat of
flash flooding scattered across the flood-sensitive region of central
Texas today.  By this evening, these thunderstorms are expected to taper
off for a more quiet night tonight into Monday morning.  Monday should see
some more isolated to scattered thunderstorms to pop during the heat of
the day across central Texas and into Oklahoma before tapering off during
Monday evening.

Tropical Storm Chantal is currently making landfall over eastern
South Carolina early this morning.  Bands of squally thunderstorms
containing heavy rainfall and strong to gale force winds are expected to
overspread the coastal plains of North Carolina into eastern South
Carolina today, where totals of 2-4 inches, locally upwards of 6"
possible. These rainfall amounts may lead to scattered instances of flash
flooding.  Chantal is forecast to steadily weaken to a remnant low as it
moves further inland through North Carolina by Monday morning.  Showers
and embedded thunderstorms are expected to become less widespread across
North Carolina on Monday but some isolated heavy downpours and instances
of flash flooding are expected to spread northward and could reach into
southern Virginia.  In addition to flash flooding, life-threatening surf
and rip currents are expected along the Atlantic coast from Florida
northward to the Mid-Atlantic states over the next couple of days.

Across the northern tier, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
gradually progress eastward through the Midwest and the Great Lakes today
in connection with the passage of a wave of low pressure riding along a
slow-moving frontal boundary through today into tonight. By Monday, the
front will continue its slow eastward motion toward New England and Ohio
Valley where scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase,
with some isolated flash flooding instances possible.

Across the Rockies, ejections of upper-level shortwave troughs will lead
to rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms downstream.  Storms are also
expected in moist upslope flow along the High Plains.  The first round of
these storms is in progress this morning across the northern and central
High Plains.  The second round is forecast to re-fire this evening across
the central High Plains and adjacent central Plains.  The third round is
forecast for later on Monday into early on Tuesday across the
north-central Plains where the Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced
Risks of severe weather in effect where tornadoes, large hail, and high
winds are the main threats.  Isolated flash flooding is possible as well. 
Additional storms are possible through the southern High Plains today and
Monday, with isolated flash flooding possible.  Elsewhere, daily scattered
thunderstorms are forecast along the Florida and central Gulf Coasts. The
West should be mostly dry.

Hot and muggy weather is expected to spread and expand eastward from the
Great Lakes to the East Coast during the next couple of days ahead of the
slow-moving front and tropical moisture from Chantal moving into the
mid-Atlantic.  High temperatures are forecast to climb into the low to
mid-90s with high humidity levels in these areas.  Most of the region is
under Moderate to Major Heat Risk, including many of the major population
centers, indicating a level of heat that can impact anyone without
adequate access to air conditioning or hydration, especially those groups
more sensitive to heat. Temperatures are also expected to climb across
much the West, particularly for the interior Pacific Northwest/northern
Great Basin and in the Desert Southwest, after more comfortable, below
average conditions to start the holiday weekend. Temperatures will remain
cooler and below average Sunday across much of the northern tier of the
country from the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest following a cold
front passage, with highs in the upper 60s to low 80s. Temperatures will
be generally seasonable southward through the Plains with some lingering
below average conditions into the southern Plains given precipitation and
cloudiness in the region. 

Kong/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php