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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2007Z Mar 24, 2017)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 407 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 Valid 00Z Sat Mar 25 2017 - 00Z Mon Mar 27 2017 ...Thunderstorms, potentially severe, are possible from the eastern Plains to the Mississippi River Valley through tonight, shifting eastward Saturday... ...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley... ...High winds will couple with dry conditions behind a strong cold front to produce fire weather concerns across the Southern Plains... ...Heavy snow possible over the Sierras, and southern Cascades through tonight... A potent low pressure system continues to slowly make its way across the central plains this afternoon, with a strong cold protruding southward nearing the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. A secondary boundary protrudes eastward from the low pressure system, stretching from the Central Plains to New England. This low pressure system is providing a deep flow of warm moist air off of the Gulf of Mexico on its eastward extent. These frontal boundaries, specifically the cold front moving across the plains and into the Mississippi Valley, will provide an area of ascent, allowing this warm, moist and unstable airmass to rise into the atmosphere and interact with colder air. Rain, heavy at times, and thunderstorms are expected as a result along and just ahead of the cold front over the next couple of days as it advances eastward. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a small region that stretches across east TX and the Ark-LA-Tex region as being in an Enhanced Risk for severe weather this evening and overnight, with conditions favorable for producing damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. A Slight Risk area is also in place across much of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley Area. By tomorrow, the Slight Risk for severe weather shifts southeast with the progression of the cold front and low pressure system, encompassing much of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center website for more information: www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov. Behind the this cold front, strong winds are coupling with a very dry airmass to produce High Wind Warnings and Red Flag Conditions across much for the Southern Plains. Any fires that develop could spread rapidly and become difficult to control. Meanwhile, precipitation associated with the west-east oriented frontal boundary will generally be in the form of rain, though some thunderstorms will be possible just south of the Great Lakes. Areas north of the frontal boundary could see colder air mixing in with the precipitation to produce mixed precipitation over the next few days, mainly across the Upper Great Lakes and the Northeast. Finally, another system impacting the northwestern U.S. will continue to move inland over the next couple of days. Expect rain to persist along the Pacific Coast through Saturday, before tapering off. Rain and higher elevation snow will persist through much of the weekend inland into the Northern and Central Rockies. Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through the tonight for portions of the Sierra Nevada Mountain Range and northern California, South-central Washington, and eastern Nevada. Flood watches and warnings are also in effect for portions of the Northern Great Basin and Intermountain West. A stronger disturbance is poised to near the Pacific Northwest to end out the weekend and start the workweek. Wix Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php