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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2000Z Jun 10, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 00Z Tue Jun 11 2024 - 00Z Thu Jun 13 2024 ...Threat for flash and urban flooding this week over the Florida Peninsula as rich tropical moisture overspreads the region... ...Moderate to locally heavy rainfall continues with storms in Texas; severe storms forecast for the Upper Midwest later Wednesday... ...Heat-related Advisories/Warnings in place for the central California Valleys and portions of the Southwest as temperatures soar into the 100s... A very stormy and wet week is in store for the Florida Peninsula as a steady plume of rich, tropical moisture from the western Caribbean begins to overspread the area ahead of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped just to the north. Multiple rounds of intense downpour producing storms (rain rates of 2"+ per hour) are expected not only through the current forecast period (Wednesday evening), but are likely to continue into the weekend. Slight Risks (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall are in effect both Tuesday and Wednesday for the threat of flash flooding, particularly for urban areas, and a higher threat level may be necessary if confidence in day-to-day storm locations increases. While antecedent conditions are dry in the region, the threat outside urban areas may also increase with each day as the heavy rainfall begins to lead to wetter soils more susceptible to flooding. Further west, additional storms are expected along the boundary along the immediate Gulf Coast and into portions of Texas the next couple of days. While the available moisture will not be as high and rain rates/totals are not forecast to be as heavy as further east, there will still be an isolated risk of flash flooding, most likely over central Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has also included a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms (level 2/5) over the Edwards Plateau Tuesday where some of the more intense storms could produce some large hail and damaging winds. Showers and thunderstorms continue ahead of a frontal system passing through the northern/central Plains this evening. The system will lift northeastward into the Upper Midwest Tuesday with some showers and storms expected, though totals will likely remain light to moderate as storm coverage/intensity decreases. Another system will approach and move into the Pacific Northwest early Tuesday and pass through the northern Rockies by Wednesday, though little to no precipitation is expected across the region. As the system enters the northern Plains/Upper Midwest by Wednesday afternoon, better moisture streaming northward will bring a greater chance of thunderstorms. The SPC has included a Slight Risk over portions of the Upper Midwest for the threat of very large hail and damaging winds. Much of the West will remain well-above average this week as an upper-level high begins to build in over the Southwest and northern Mexico. The greatest threat from the heat will stretch from the central California valleys into portions of southern Nevada/Arizona Tuesday before expanding even further east into southern New Mexico and far west Texas by Wednesday. Here, heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as temperatures soar well into the 100s and nighttime lows in the 70s and low 80s provide little relief. The risk from the heat is characterized as 'Major' (level 3/4) which considers impacts that will be felt by the entire population that are without effective cooling or adequate hydration, not just those individuals more sensitive to heat. Much above average temperatures will also spread into portions of the north-central U.S. by Wednesday, with many highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s from the central/northern Plains into portions of the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, temperatures will begin to warm-up and return closer to normal over the next couple of days for much of the Interior Northeast/Ohio Valley following many highs in the 60s Monday. Most of the eastern/southern U.S. will be near average with highs in the 70s/80s for the Northeast, 80s in the Mid-Atlantic, and 80s and 90s from the Southern Plains into the Southeast. Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php