Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 08 2025 - 12Z Thu Jul 10 2025

...Scattered thunderstorms across the Arklatex region and across the
Midwest later today...

...Severe thunderstorms possible across the Mid-Atlantic later today into
the evening with heavy rain possible into southern New England

...Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms possible across the Mid-Atlantic
later on Wednesday, and across the northern Plains into early on
Thursday...

...Major heat risks across much of the East today; triple-digit heat
across the interior Northwest to northern High Plains as well as the
Desert Southwest...

A weakness in the high pressure ridge aloft in the lower to mid-levels
remains present across the southern Plains.  This weakness will promote
instability and allow scattered thunderstorms to pop up across the
Arklatex region during the heat of the day today.  This slight
northeastward shift in the position of the weakness should allow a break
in the thunderstorm activities across the flood-ravaged region of
south-central Texas today.  The scattered thunderstorms that do form
across the Arklatex region may become organized and produce locally heavy
downpours from this afternoon into the evening as they generally move
eastward across the region.  Tonight into early Wednesday will once again
see the thunderstorms largely taper off.  But during the day on Wednesday,
more scattered thunderstorms will pop up farther east across the Deep
South and into the southern Appalachians.  These storms should die down
considerably Wednesday night but will remain scattered across these areas.

Across the northern Mid-Atlantic, the Storm Prediction Center highlights a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms mainly for the latter half of today
ahead of a cold front approaching the Appalachians.  Afternoon
temperatures today along much of the East Coast are forecast to soar well
up into the 90s, which will increase the instability available for these
thunderstorms and result in heavy downpours for portions of the northern
Mid-Atlantic into southern New England.  The front will have a hard time
pushing through the East Coast on Wednesday.  Scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form once again later on Wednesday over the interior section
of the Mid-Atlantic and may organize into bands that bring a threat of
heavy rain and thunderstorms for the Mid-Atlantic states.  The heavy rain
threat could continue into early on Thursday.

Across the central Plains, a cluster of strong thunderstorms this morning
associated with a front and a low pressure wave should move into the
Midwest later today.  Scattered storms associated with another low
pressure area will move from the upper Midwest this morning and then
across the Great Lakes by tonight and through Wednesday.  Meanwhile,
clusters of organized thunderstorms containing very heavy downpours could
be developing Wednesday night into Thursday morning across the northern
Plains ahead of a lifting warm front and a developing low pressure system
over the northern and central High Plains.

Temperature-wise across the CONUS, much above average temperatures area
expected into Wednesday from the Southwest, across the Great Basin,
Rockies and into the northern to central High Plains.  Excessive heat
watches and warnings are currently in effect across southeast California,
southern and western Arizona and far southern Nevada where high
temperatures over the next few days are expected to eclipse 110 degrees. 
Heat advisories are also in effect across portions of the northern Great
Basin.  The heat across the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies will
begin to diminish on Wednesday as a strong front begins to move inland
into the Northwest.  At this time, the heat will shift eastward into the
central to northern High Plains where high temperatures are expected to
reach the upper 90s and lower 100s.  Heat will also be building today
along a large portion of the East from Atlanta to Boston.  Heat advisories
have already been posted for coastal locations from eastern North Carolina
into the Mid-Atlantic and eastern New England where heat risks are
expected to be major for today.  Slightly cooler temperatures by mid to
late week will reduce the heat risks across these areas.

Kong/Oravec


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php