Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 14 2026 - 00Z Thu Jul 16 2026

...Anomalous heat and humidity continue across the northern Plains to the
upper Midwest, spreading into the Northeast by Tuesday...

...Threat of heavy rain abates across the southern Appalachians to the
Carolinas; significant heavy rainfall likely over the Hill Country and Big
Bend regions of Texas...

A strong upper-level high, responsible for several all-time high
temperature records in the West yesterday, is forecast to build eastward
across the northern tier states over the next few days. This will yield
record-breaking high temperatures of 95 to 105 across the northern Plains
and Midwest through midweek, which also spreads over the Great Lakes and
Northeast on Tuesday. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect across a
large portion of the Great Basin through the northern Plains as Heat
Advisories are posted for areas farther east into New England. If you will
be situated within any of these areas forecast to experience extreme heat,
stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and limit outdoor activities if
possible. A cold front will draw slightly cooler air eastward from the
Pacific Northwest into Montana and North Dakota over the next couple of
days, dropping high temperatures into the upper 80s and 90s.

South of this anomalous upper high, a front is forecast to remain nearly
stationary through the southern Plains, the Deep South and the Southeast. 
Upper-level disturbances will then interact with the wavy stationary front
to produce repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across this
corridor of the southern U.S. Meanwhile, the heavy rain threat across the
southern Appalachians and Southeast will gradually abate as drier air
filters in from the north. Near the western end of the front, a
significant heavy rainfall event is expected across the Texas Hill Country
and Big Bend over the next three days as thunderstorms repeatedly focus
over this region. The latest rainfall forecast calls for storm total
rainfall amounts of 6-8" through Wednesday evening, which could lead to
dangerous flash flooding as soils in the area become increasingly
inundated. 

Meanwhile, the forecast remains on track for an influx of monsoonal
moisture to drive an uptick in daytime thunderstorms over portions of the
Great Basin and Intermountain West. A few instances of flash flooding and
severe weather are possible in the strongest storms through midweek.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php