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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1953Z Jun 13, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 353 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 00Z Fri Jun 14 2024 - 00Z Sun Jun 16 2024 ...There is a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over parts of southern Florida for tonight... ...There are Severe weather concerns over portions of the Northern/Central High Plains as well as portions of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic on Friday... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Advisories over Southern California, Southwest, Central Plains, and Southern High Plains... In Florida, ongoing rounds of thunderstorm activity are expected to continue through Friday before subsiding just in time for the weekend. A quasi-stationary surface front and upper trough axis swinging through the Gulf of Mexico/Southeast U.S. will continue focusing tropical moisture across the Florida peninsula over the next couple of days. Intense thunderstorms will occur tonight, when storms will bring several more inches of rainfall, in some cases, over the very saturated and vulnerable soils/surfaces and urban areas of southern Florida. There is now a High Risk (at least 70%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over parts of southern Florida, particularly along the I-75 corridor from Naples to Fort Lauderdale and down to Miami. There remains a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall across the central-southern peninsula through Friday, with a Marginal Risk (at least 5%) in place through Saturday when conditions are likely to improve. A closed mid-level low will degrade into an open shortwave trough while it swings through the Southwest and Rockies this weekend. This shortwave feature will promote thunderstorm activity across the High Plains beginning Friday afternoon and continuing into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) over parts of eastern Colorado, southwestern Nebraska and eastern Kansas. Scattered severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible along the Front Range into the Central Plains Friday afternoon/evening. A complex of storms are expected to develop over western Pennsylvania Friday afternoon and propagate into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast that evening. Tonight, convection is expected to flare up along a cold front pushing through the Midwest. Surface cyclogenesis along the front could promote enhanced hourly rainfall rates. Thus, a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for portions of the Midwest, from southeastern Iowa/northeastern Missouri across north-central Illinois and into northwestern Indiana. Totals of around an inch of rain are expected with isolated amounts closer to two inches possible in certain spots. Excessive Heat concerns will wane over the Southwest this weekend as the mid-level disturbance shifts into the Plains along with an upper ridge. The newly developing ridge over the Central U.S. will increase Excessive Heat threats across the eastern half of the country heading into next week. Kebede Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php