Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Mar 16 2026 - 00Z Wed Mar 18 2026

...A major winter storm will bring widespread blizzard conditions across
the Northern Plains, upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes today along with
widespread high winds through the mid-section of the country...

...Severe thunderstorms likely to sweep across the Midwest and Mid-South
today, and then through the entire eastern U.S. with the highest threat
across the Mid-Atlantic on Monday...

...An anomalously early heatwave begins to intensify across the western
U.S....

...Critical Risk of fire weather shifts farther south into the Southern
High Plains today...

Snow will continue across the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes region today. A low pressure system continues to expand and
intensify over the Central Plains while tracking east-northeastward,
reaching into Lower Michigan by tonight.  A swath of very heavy snow is
expected to develop just north of the low pressure track along with a
narrow band of wintry mixed precipitation.  Blizzard Warnings have been
issued from eastern South Dakota across much of the upper Midwest and into
upper Great Lakes region.  The most severe blizzard conditions will likely
impact areas from northeastern Wisconsin to Upper Michigan during the day
today when a couple of feet of very heavy snow is likely ahead of the
cyclone center together with strong and gusty winds.  These will be
followed by additional heavy snow and blowing snow on Monday as the center
of the cyclone moves closer and passes just to the southeast.  The intense
cyclone will begin to move away into southeastern Canada later on Monday. 
However, the huge circulation of this system will take time to exit the
Great Lakes and the eastern U.S.  Snow and blowing snow along with frigid
conditions will be slow to diminish on Monday across the Great Lakes
region, with lake-effect snows downwind from the Great Lakes into Tuesday
morning.

Anomalous warmth and dry conditions have engulfed the entire Central and
Southern Plains south of the intense low pressure system. The presence of
the warm and dry air will limit rain chances today while maintaining
Critical fire danger for the Southern Rockies and much of the Southern
High Plains ahead of the approaching arctic front. Arctic air will blast
into the central part of the country as the intensifying cyclone tracks
eastward, a rather potent cold front will sweep across the mid-section of
the country allowing for temperatures to plummet, resulting in wind chill
values in the -10s and -20s by Monday. Ahead of the cold conditions will
be quite favorable for a squall line to develop spreading gusty winds and
severe thunderstorms across the Midwest and Mid-South. The stormy pattern
will persist through the night, shifting the threat for sever weather from
the lower Great Lakes through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as well as
the Deep South where the Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced
risked of severe thunderstorms.

By Monday afternoon, the potent cold front will be sweeping into the East
Coast.  The combination of the vigorous dynamics ahead of the potent front
and maximum daytime heating will be ripe for eruption of severe weather,
especially across interior Mid-Atlantic late Monday afternoon into early
evening.  A wave of low pressure tracking rapidly up the East Coast along
the front will provide additional instability for the already volatile
situation. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk of
severe weather for this region for Monday.  Please stay weather alert on
the upcoming severe weather potentials from the east-central U.S. to the
East Coast.  The cold front will be moving off the East Coast by Tuesday
morning, bringing windy and sharply colder weather into the entire eastern
U.S.

An unusual weather pattern featuring a gradually intensifying upper ridge
will bring an anomalously early heatwave into the western and southwestern
portions of the country as the week progresses.  Daily
record-tying/breaking highs will become more common across southern
California, the Desert Southwest and into the Great Basin over the next
couple of days.  These temperatures will serve as a baseline for even more
anomalous, more widespread record-breaking heat expected later this week. 
Meanwhile, conditions will remain much colder behind a front to the north
through the Pacific Northwest, with highs mainly in the 40s.  Today into
Monday, moisture from the next Pacific system will begin to increase
precipitation chances and coverage across the Pacific Northwest.  More
rain is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday morning
but it will be confined to northwestern Washington state.

Campbell/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php