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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2000Z Dec 01, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 00Z Sat Dec 02 2023 - 00Z Mon Dec 04 2023 ...Prolonged winter storm with multi-day atmospheric river activity will impact the Northwest with significant mountain snowfall and heavy rains... ...Unsettled weather forecast across the eastern third of the country with heavy rain potential along the Gulf Coast and Southeast, while wintry weather is expected from parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes to northern New England... Meteorological winter is off to a fast and active start across much of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and the Rockies as plentiful moisture streams inland from the Pacific Ocean over at least the next few days. After seeing initially more modest atmospheric river activity today through Saturday, with generally moderate precipitation, the strongest atmospheric river related to the series of cold fronts advancing inland off the Pacific Ocean will be on Sunday. This will drive locally significant impacts from heavy mountain snow and heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts through this weekend are expected to approach 5 to 10 inches along the coastal ranges of western Washington and Oregon, with several inches of rain also expected for places such as Portland, OR and Seattle, WA. Meanwhile, heavy snowfall adding up to at least a few feet is expected across the Cascades, including many mountain passes. Travel will be difficult to hazardous due to both heavy snow and blowing snow. Snow levels are expected to increase by Saturday night and throughout the day on Sunday as warmer air arrives, leading to heavy rain on top of the snowpack throughout the Cascades. This combination of heavy rain and snowmelt on Sunday will likely produce minor to moderate river flooding. The heavy snowfall threat will also extend well east into the mountainous terrain of the Great Basin and Rockies as Pacific moisture spilling out of the Pacific Northwest reaches the windward slopes of the Intermountain Region. The higher terrain of Idaho, western Montana, northern Utah, northwest Wyoming and northwest Colorado will see locally as much as 1 to 3 feet of snow by early Monday. Widespread Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for many areas of these areas in addition to the Pacific Northwest. Elsewhere across the country, a strong deep layer axis of moisture and warmer air crossing the Mid-South, Gulf Coast states, and lifting up along the Eastern Seaboard will foster generally unsettled and mild weather for these areas for the first weekend of December. An initial weak storm system is forecast to progress across the Ohio Valley and the Lower Great Lakes region tonight through midday Saturday as another developing system right on its heels enters the Great Lakes on Sunday. Overall, light rain is expected across the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. However, elevated atmospheric moisture content and instability may lead to locally heavy rainfall and thunderstorms along portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast through this evening and overnight. This threat of heavy rainfall will advance into parts of the Southeast on Saturday out ahead of a very slow-moving front, with the Florida Panhandle in particular potentially seeing sufficient rainfall for some flooding concerns. The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted portions of this area in a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for Saturday and Saturday night. Farther north, wintry weather is expected on the northern periphery of the precipitation shield as cold air remains in place due to a stretched out high pressure system extending into southeast Canada. Mostly light and localized areas of snow may impact some areas the Lower Michigan. Heavier snow is possible across northern New England by Monday as a stronger storm system begins to organize new coastal New England. Snell/Orrison Graphics available at