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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0725Z Jun 28, 2022)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 325 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 Valid 12Z Tue Jun 28 2022 - 12Z Thu Jun 30 2022 ...Locally heavy rain possible across the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Southwest over the next few days... ...Isolated severe thunderstorms possible across parts of Montana and the Upper Midwest today and into the northern Plains on Wednesday... ...Well above average temperatures forecast across the northern/central Plains on Wednesday while increasing heat and humidity gradually spreads eastward for the second half of the week... A fairly typical summer pattern has set up across the Nation for the final few days of June, with various chances for scattered thunderstorms and associated hazards. An upper-level ridge and lingering stationary boundary draped across the southern U.S. will lead to conditions ripe for scattered thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon hours along the Gulf Coast and Southeast. High atmospheric moisture content and light winds aloft are anticipated to create an environment most likely to produce disorganized thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall rates and frequent lightning. Storms that can remain stationary for a longer duration will have greater chances of producing flash floods. Additionally, urban regions are also most at risk for ponding water over mostly impervious surfaces. Meanwhile, a forming weak area of low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico (highlighted by the National Hurricane Center as having a 30 percent chance of cyclone formation in 5 days) may also create a focus for convection along the Texas Gulf Coast. The other region under the threat of additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding is located across the Southwest. Monsoonal moisture in place may help spark additional showers and thunderstorms today across southern Arizona and New Mexico. By Wednesday and Thursday, an approaching system over the Northwest will help funnel moisture into Arizona and southern Utah before spreading further northeast into western Colorado on Thursday. Even though much of this region could use the rainfall, downpours in these areas can quickly turn dangerous and lead to flash floods. Farther north, a few progressive systems trekking across the northern tier will have the potential to spark isolated-to-scattered severe weather today and Wednesday. Starting in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, a traversing cold front will be responsible for developing thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail this afternoon and evening. SPC has highlighted an area over northern Wisconsin as having a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of severe weather. Elsewhere, a system entering the Northwest this morning is expected to enter the northern Rockies and fuel thunderstorm development into parts of the northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are the greatest concern, which has prompted SPC to issue a Slight Risk of severe weather across parts of central Montana. This same system is forecast to enter the northern Plains on Wednesday, leading to an isolated threat of severe weather from northwest Nebraska to northern Minnesota. Through the last day of June, most of the country is forecast to experience temperatures near average for this time of year. The biggest exceptions will be cooler weather located across the East today behind a cold front and over the southern High Plains under mostly overcast skies, with above average temperatures spreading into the central U.S. by Wednesday. Highs across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska may reach the century mark on Wednesday before a cold front cools things off by the end of the week. This area of heat will moderate slightly while shifting into the Midwest by Thursday. Overall, high temperatures in the upper 80s and low-to-mid 90s are forecast to be widespread across the Nation for the middle of the week. Snell Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php