Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024

Valid 12Z Thu Jul 25 2024 - 12Z Sat Jul 27 2024

...Another day of major to locally extreme Heat Risk across the northern
High Plains before cooler air arrives behind a cold front...

...Excessive Rainfall is forecast for the Texas coast through tonight with
more scattered showers and thunderstorms across the southern tier states
to the East Coast...

...Monsoonal thunderstorms continue across the Great Basin and into the
Four Corners region with threats of localized flash flooding while fire
weather danger emerges over the interior Northwest...

A slow-to-evolve summertime weather pattern will continue across much of
the U.S. mainland while a more progressive Pacific cold front sweeps
across the northwestern part of the country through the next couple of
days. Under this weather pattern, unsettled weather and relatively cool
temperatures for July will continue across the South as well as the Great
Lakes. The stronger forcing associated with the Pacific front will push
the heat dome into the northern High Plains today behind a warm front,
resulting in another day of major to locally extreme Heat Risk for the
region. High temperatures will once again reach well up into the 100s with
little to no rainfall expected.  Meanwhile, the heat will continue to
become less intense over the Central Valley of California and the Desert
Southwest.  Some of the hot air over the northern Plains will be pushed
into the upper Midwest by the weekend with highs reaching into the 80s and
90s.  Please continue to practice heat safety before cooler air arrives
behind the cold front.

The Pacific cold front currently making its way through the northern
Rockies into the High Plains will gradually become nearly stationary
through the next couple of days.  Lightning associated with dry
thunderstorms triggered by the passage of the cold front will raise fire
danger concerns over the interior northwestern U.S. into the northern High
Plains.  Farther south, monsoonal thunderstorms across the Great Basin
today will shift farther eastward into the Four Corners and as far north
as Wyoming through the next couple of days.

In contrast to the heat in the West, cooler than normal temperatures will
prevail across the mid-section of the country and portions of the eastern
U.S. where a stalled front will keep plenty of clouds along with scattered
thunderstorms.  It appears that coastal sections of Texas will see the
highest chance of receiving heavy rainfall today into tonight as some
influx of tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico could interact with
the weak front under a broad upper-level southwesterly flow ahead of a
trough.  A moderate risk of excessive rainfall remains in place from the
mid and upper Texas coast to southwestern Louisiana through tonight. 
Thunderstorms across other areas of the southern tier states are not
expected to be severe, but they could result in localized flooding issues
from time to time.  The same is true along the East Coast with a slight
risk of excessive rainfall over portions of the Carolinas through Friday
night where storms are expected to be more numerous.  Meanwhile, showers
and a few embedded thunderstorms today across New England will clear out
by Friday as a low pressure wave moves away into eastern Canada.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php