Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Jul 16 2026 - 12Z Sat Jul 18 2026

...Additional excessive rainfall likely across the Texas Hill Country
today, with focus shifting toward the Big Bend on Friday...

...Anomalous heat and humidity persisting across the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest while spreading into the northern Mid-Atlantic...

...Air quality alert from the upper Midwest through the Great Lakes into
the Northeast...

...Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms persist across the interior western
U.S with greatest flash flooding threat near the southern borders of
Arizona and New Mexico...

...Severe thunderstorms for portions of western Montana later today;
strong thunderstorms possible for northern New England today...

As the anomalous upper high prolongs a heatwave across the northern
states, a slow-moving weather regime continues to transpire across the 
southern tier states where a front remains stationary.  An upper-level low 
has migrated westward into the southern High Plains to support a renewed 
round of heavy thunderstorms across the Texas Hill Country early this 
morning.  Continued influx of Gulf moisture is forecast to interact with 
the upper low to bring additional rainfall amounts of 6-8" with locally 10+ 
inches today as these heavy thunderstorm clusters generally track northward 
from the Texas Hill Country through central Texas.  This will likely 
exacerbate the ongoing flash flooding situation in the region.  By Friday, 
the focus of the heavy rainfall is forecast shift west toward the Big Bend 
area, and possibly be confined to western Texas by Saturday morning.

Meanwhile, more heat and humidity is expected for the Northern Plains and
Great Lakes with daily maximums holding steady in the 90s to lower 100s
for the next few days.  Cooler air will penetrate deeper into New England
today under gusty westerly winds behind a cold front followed by a
reinforcing shot of cooler air by Friday morning with the passage of a
second cold front.  Unfortunately, the influx of cooler air will also
bring smoke from Canadian wildfires into the northeastern quarter of the
country.  Meanwhile, another day of triple-digit high temperatures and
elevated humidity is expected for the northern Mid-Atlantic before
readings drop slightly into the 90s on Friday.  Some strong thunderstorms
are possible later today across northern New England prior to the arrival
of the second cold front.

In the western U.S., severe thunderstorms are possible later today across
western Montana on the backside of a low pressure wave near the western
end of the front.  Meanwhile, monsoonal thunderstorms are forecast to
track from north to south across the Four Corners region today under the
influence of the upper low over the southern High Plains.  The greatest
flash flooding threat is expected to be near the southern borders of
Arizona and New Mexico for the next couple of days.  More monsoonal
showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Intermountain West into
the eastern portion of the Great Basin.

Scattered thunderstorms will be lifting farther north into the
Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys later today as the stationary front
gradually dissipates.  The frontal wave over the northern High Plains will
reach the central Great Lakes by Saturday morning.  Scattered strong
thunderstorms can be expected mainly across the upper Great Lakes on
Friday, shifting to the lower Great Lakes by Saturday morning as the
frontal wave moves eastward.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php