Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Mar 15 2026 - 00Z Tue Mar 17 2026

...A major winter storm is forecast to bring very heavy snow across the
upper Great Lakes and upper Midwest along with widespread high winds from
the northern tier states...

...Severe thunderstorms appear likely across the mid-section of the
country to the east-central U.S. later Sunday into Monday morning...

...Snow and gusty winds will progress through interior New England today...

...High elevation snow continues today across the northern Rockies as the
tail end of an Atmospheric River event tapers off along the Cascades...

...An anomalously early heatwave will begin to intensify over the western
U.S. heading into the new week...

...Critical Risk of fire weather for the Central and Southern High
Plains...

Light to locally moderate snowfall will spread across northern New England
as a low pressure system advances across the Great Lakes region today. The
gusty winds and snow will taper down by early Sunday. On the other side of
the country an atmospheric river will be ending today as the main jet
stream energy moves farther inland into the Northern Rockies.  The jet
stream will begin to interact with arctic air arriving from Canada to
expand the coverage of snow across the Northern Rockies and gradually
spread the snow eastward into the northern High Plains today.  This
interaction is a precursor of a major winter storm which is forecast to
develop over the Northern Plains.  A low pressure system will begin to
form today over Wyoming where the arctic air and Pacific jet stream meets.
 By tonight into Sunday morning, the snow will further expand and spread
quickly east across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest as the low
pressure system ejects out of Wyoming and intensifies rapidly.  By Sunday
morning, the cyclone is forecast to become quite intense with strong and
gusty winds impacting much of the northern to central Plains and into the
upper Midwest.  A swath of very heavy snow can be expected just north of
the low pressure track along with a narrow band of wintry mixed
precipitation.  Blizzard conditions appear likely across northern
Wisconsin to upper Michigan through Sunday and continue into Monday as the
cyclone reaches peak intensity and tracks into the Great Lakes.

The anomalous warmth across the central to southern High Plains has peaked
today.  The combination of persistently dry and gusty winds from the west
will make for a critical fire risk on Saturday.  Some showers and
thunderstorms should develop ahead of the intensifying cyclone but they
should be confined to the Central Plains tonight into Sunday morning.  The
critical fire danger will shift farther south across the Southern Rockies
to much of the Southern High Plains on Sunday before the arctic front
arrives.  As the intensifying cyclone tracks eastward, a rather potent
cold front will sweep across the mid-section of the country on Sunday.  A
squall line containing severe weather and high winds will likely accompany
the potent front, especially Sunday evening across the Midwest to the
Mid-South.  By Monday morning, severe weather could extend from the lower
Great Lakes through the Ohio and Tennessee Valley as well as the Deep
South where the Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risked of
severe thunderstorms.  Meanwhile, sharply colder air will surge down the
Plains.  Wind chill values -10s and -20s will be common across the
northern Plains by Monday morning with below freezing wind chills all the
way down into Texas.

An upper ridge will maintain a prolonged warm up for parts of the West and
Southwest this weekend. Daily high temperatures are expected to range in
the 60s and 70s for the Great Basin, 70s and 80s for northern California,
and 90s for southern California and the Desert Southwest. Some daily
record-tying/breaking highs will be possible for southern California and
the Desert Southwest. These temperatures will serve as a baseline for even
more anomalous, more widespread record-breaking heat expected into next
week. Meanwhile, conditions will remain much colder behind a front to the
north through the Pacific Northwest, with highs mainly in the 40s. From
Sunday into Monday morning, moisture from the next Pacific system will
begin to increase precipitation chances and coverage for the Pacific
Northwest.

Kong/Campbell/Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php