Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 02 2025 - 00Z Fri Jul 04 2025

...There will be chances for heavy rain and areas of potential flash
flooding across areas in the Southwest, the coastal Carolinas and
Virginia, and most of north-central Florida over the next few days...

...Locally strong thunderstorms will be possible across the northern
Plains over the next few days and across the Northeast on Thursday...

...Mid-level ridging will shift eastward towards the Plains and Midwest
and bring above average temperatures to these regions...

A cold front slowly sagging southeastward across the eastern seaboard will
be a lifting mechanism for heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding. On
Wednesday, thunderstorms are likely to reform over a boundary from the
Virginia Tidewater to coastal North Carolina and potentially drop a couple
of inches of rainfall. Some training of thunderstorms from today is also
possible for tomorrow in the Mid-Atlantic.

Ample tropical moisture across Florida associated with lower surface
pressures will be squeezed out very efficiently for the days of Wednesday
and Thursday due to the approach of a sagging frontal boundary serving as
a source of additional  atmospheric lift in addition to typical afternoon
and sea-breeze thunderstorms. Some areas in the Tampa Bay region southward
along the Sun Coast may see as much as 5-7 inches of rainfall from this
afternoon through the day Thursday. Therefore, WPC has issued a Slight
Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Wednesday and Thursday around the Tampa
Bay region. Scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible. Turn
around, don't drown.

Furthermore, the Southwest will see monsoonal moisture bring the threat of
heavy rainfall from Arizona to the Four Corners region. A targeted Slight
Risk for Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect tomorrow for areas of
Arizona into New Mexico as ample moisture and instability will allow for
heavy rainfall rates over sensitive terrain and burn scars sensitive to
flash flooding. A broader Marginal Risk extends for the Southwest through
Thursday.

In terms of severe weather, two areas of Marginal Risk are in effect
across the Northern Rockies and the Midwest for Wednesday. Across the
northern Rockies, the biggest weather threat will be strong, gusty winds
with dry thunderstorms, as well as an elevated fire weather risk due to
gusty winds over low relative humidities. A trough across the Midwest and
Great Lakes region will bring potential for severe winds and the
possibility of large hail. On Thursday, the Dakotas will see the potential
for linear storm structures to bring strong winds. Also, a cold front
entering the Northeast on Thursday will bring a renewed potential for
locally strong storms. 

Most of the temperatures across the CONUS will be trending average to
slightly below average for the start of July across the South owing to the
abundance of rainfall from the Southwest to the Sunshine State. Northern
areas will see heat spreading eastward from the Pacific Northwest to the
Midwest and Great Lakes by Friday. Temperatures will be anywhere from
10-15 degrees warmer than average. Wednesday and Thursday will see high
temperatures in the 95-100 degree range. This may approach Heat Risk in
the Major Range across the Dakotas into Iowa and Minnesota by Thursday,
and individuals should plenty of water and take cool breaks.

Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php