Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   Staff
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1928Z Sep 18, 2024)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White

Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 328 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Valid 00Z Thu Sep 19 2024 - 00Z Sat Sep 21 2024 ...Heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible in Montana through tonight... ...Severe thunderstorms possible in the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through Thursday... ...Late-summer heat forecast throughout parts of the southern Plains... A strong occluded low will bring hazardous weather to Montana through tonight as it lingers over the state. Strong upslope flow along the northern Rockies and central Montana ranges on the backside of the low will result in showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall totals. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect for portions of Montana where scattered flash flooding will be possible. Wintry precipitation will also be possible in the high elevations of the northern Rockies. In addition to precipitation hazards, a strong pressure gradient in the vicinity of the central low will result in strong, gusty winds across the region, including into parts of the northern Plains. High Wind Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Montana and Wyoming where winds are forecast to be 30-40 mph with gusts up 60 mph. The low will gradually lift north into southern Canada Thursday and Friday, and rain and winds will begin to relax. The strong low pressure system will also push a cold front across the Plains and Upper Midwest through Friday. A line of showers and thunderstorms will move east ahead of the cold front, and the environment will support the development of scattered severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Plains and Upper Midwest with a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) today and again on Thursday. Potential severe storm hazards will include damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will expand into the Great Lakes, Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Friday as the cold front continues to trek east. Elsewhere, two coastal lows will sandwich the continental United States, one moving south along the West Coast and one moving north along the East Coast. The West Coast low will bring precipitation to the Great Basin and California tonight into Thursday. Precipitation will fall mainly in the form of showers and thunderstorms, but some wintry precipitation will be possible in the Sierra Nevada. The low will weaken on Friday, and precipitation will taper off. The East Coast low will gradually deepen offshore of the Mid-Atlantic over the next few days with a slow-moving frontal boundary extending southwest from the low. Showers and storms capable of localized intense rainfall will be possible for the Mid-Atlantic, coastal Northeast, Southeast, and Florida. This system will also produce gusty winds over the coastal waters, which has prompted Small Craft and Coastal Flood Advisories along the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Temperature-wise, the West will experience well below average temperatures in the wake of the strong frontal system in the Plains, while the Central U.S. experiences well above average summer-like temperatures with southerly flow ahead of the Plains system. A few near-record high temperatures will be possible in the southern Plains where highs will approach the upper 90s and near 100 degrees, including the Oklahoma City metro region. Above average temperatures will also be observed in the Interior Northeast under an upper level ridge, and near to slightly below normal temperatures will be observed in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Dolan/Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php