Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 12 2026 - 12Z Wed Oct 14 2026

...Heavy rainfall continues over the Great Basin and Southwest today; wet
weather moves into the Plains this week...

Unsettled weather will continue over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest
to begin the work week as a slow moving cold front and lingering tropical
moisture remain overhead. Much of the region can expect downpours
throughout today, with a general focus over favorable terrain from Utah to
Arizona. Scattered flash flooding is possible as today's round overlaps
with areas impacted from heavy rainfall over the last few days. The
approach of a closed upper-low from the Northwest will also lower snow
levels enough to support snow in the peaks of the Shoshone and Monitor
Range in Nevada and Utah Wasatch. This upper-low will maintain the wet
pattern in the West tomorrow, which could lead to isolated flash flooding
in Utah. By then, however, the focus for showers and thunderstorms will
begin to move toward the Central and Southern Plains as another slug of
moisture interacts with a slow moving cold front and sharpening dryline.
Scattered severe weather is possible from Kansas City to Lubbock tomorrow
ahead of the cold front, and on Wednesday, rainfall amounts upwards of
2-3" are possible from western Missouri to the Texas Big Bend, where a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is highlighted. Meanwhile, to the east,
a developing frontal wave will spread showers and thunderstorms across the
Northern Tier from the Upper Midwest to New England tomorrow and
Wednesday. No excessive rainfall threat is anticipated with this activity,
although accumulating snows are possible in the Boundary and Blue
Mountains of Maine.

A temperature dichotomy will remain across the country through mid-week.
Well above average temperatures are forecast to develop over much of the
Central and Eastern U.S., with highs into the 80s and even lower 90s for
portions of the Plains and Midwest. There will likely be some daily record
highs that will be tied or broken. Much colder temperatures are expected
across the West under the upper-low, with highs generally in the 40s and
50s across the Intermountain West. Eventually, portions of the Northern
Plains, Upper-Midwest, and New England can expect a notable temperature
change over the next 48 hours as the front moves southward through the
area.

Asherman/Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php