Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 PM EDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 00Z Fri May 15 2026 - 00Z Sun May 17 2026

...Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Plains on Thursday...

...Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday...

...Mixed precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and Northern
Intermountain Region through Saturday...


Across central U.S. a frontal boundary stretching from northern
Plains/Upper Midwest into southern Plains will be the focus for scattered
showers and thunderstorms tonight into Friday. With sufficient
instability, chances for severe thunder storms will be likely. Therefore,
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms across parts of the central Plains and Southern High
Plains. Additional hazards associated with the storm will be hail and
severe wind gusts. The front will become semi-stationary across the
Plains/Mississippi Valley from Friday into Saturday, continuing chances
for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. In addition, SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms across portions
of the lower Missouri River Valley for Friday into Saturday. The severe
thunderstorm threat will expand Saturday into Sunday across parts of the
central Plains into lower to mid Missouri Valley as the stationary frontal
system that stretches across the Great Basin into mid-Mississippi Valley,
Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes brings additional showers and thunderstorms
along the boundary.

The surface low over Northeast will continue to move offshore, but a
shortwave trough will bring some scattered showers with a chance for some
isolated thunderstorms through early Friday morning. The lingering front
and shortwave energy near Florida will produce some occasional showers and
thunderstorms into Sunday. Over into the west, a weak cold front will move
into the Pacific Northwest and a shortwave trough will bring some
occasional low elevation rain, and high elevation snow/mixed precipitation
through Sunday.

Temperatures continue to trend above normal across much of central U.S.,
into the weekend. As the upper-level ridge slowly moves eastward, moderate
temperatures over eastern U.S. will trend above average into Sunday.
Across the west, below normal temperature return as the shortwave trough
moves into the area.

Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php