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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0757Z Jun 13, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 13 2024 - 12Z Sat Jun 15 2024 ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley on Thursday and a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England plus the Central/Southern High Plains on Friday... ...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern tip of Florida on Thursday and a slight Risk over the southern tip of Florida on Friday... ...There are Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Advisories over Southern California, Southwest, Central Plains, and Southern High Plains on Thursday... A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes, Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley, and then westward to the Central Rockies will move eastward to the Northeast Coast, Mid-Atlantic, and westward to the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains by Saturday. The boundary will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Western Ohio Valley through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added threat of severe thunderstorms wind gusts of 65 knots or greater from the Central Plains to Western Ohio Valley. Further, there will be an added threat of large hail, two inches or greater, from the Central Plains to the Western Ohio Valley. On Friday, the boundary moves eastward to the Northeast, producing showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/New England from Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, and a minimal threat of tornadoes/ hail. In addition, along the western end of the front, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains from Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Furthermore, there will be an added threat of severe thunderstorms wind gusts of 65 knots or greater from the Central High Plains. On Friday, there will also be showers and thunderstorms from parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central/Southern Appalachians. Meanwhile, on Thursday, a stationary front with waves will extend across northern Florida and parts of the Gulf of Mexico, and the combination of tropical moisture over southern Florida will produce showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rain over parts of southern Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. On Friday, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease slightly over the southern tip of Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over southern Florida from Friday into Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Elsewhere, on Friday, a front will develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest and move inland to the Northern Plains, the Great Basin, and Southern California. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern High Plains and Northern Plains on Friday evening into Saturday. Moreover, onshore flow behind the front will produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest from Friday to Saturday. Moreover, upper-level ridging will develop over parts of the Southwest eastward to the Southern, leading to Excessive Heat Warnings/Watches and Heat Advisories over Southern California, Southwest, Central Plains, and Southern High Plains. Residents and individuals involved in outdoor activities must stay informed and take immediate and necessary precautions. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php