Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Jun 15 2026 - 12Z Wed Jun 17 2026

...Increasing threat of significant heavy rainfall from South Texas to the
lower Mississippi Valley through the next couple of days...

...Rain exiting New England this morning as much cooler air surges into
the eastern two-thirds of the country...

...Heat across the Pacific Northwest will begin to moderate on Tuesday...

A weather pattern favoring cold air intrusions from Canada is bringing a
refreshingly cool airmass into much of the eastern two-thirds of the
country.  The remaining rain and rain showers across New England will
mostly exit into the Canadian Maritimes by this afternoon behind a low
pressure wave and the primary cold front.  Temperatures behind the front
will drop into the 40s and 50s from the northern and central Plains to the
Great Lakes this morning, spreading into the Northeast by Tuesday morning.
 High temperatures will only recover to the 70s and lower 80s, which are
more than 10 degrees below normal for portions of those areas.

As the cool air mass dominates the weather pattern across much of the
central and eastern U.S., the stage is set for a prolonged heavy rainfall
event from South Texas through the lower Mississippi Valley.  This is in
response to complex interactions among an upper-level disturbance exiting
the Mexican plateau, tropical moisture near the western Gulf and
northeastern Mexico, and the cold front becoming nearly stationary near
the Gulf Coast.  Through the next 3 days, areal rainfall totals of 4-6"
with locally higher amounts can be expected along the Texas coastline into
Louisiana.  In addition, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring the
potential for tropical cyclone development near the Texas Gulf Coast for
later this week.  Enhanced tropical rainfall could begin to affect
southern Texas by later on Tuesday, possibly moving further up the Texas
coast by Wednesday morning.

Across the northern tier, a couple of quick-moving low pressure systems
will deliver some showers and gusty winds through the next couple of days.
 The first system will move from the northern Plains today to the Great
Lakes on Tuesday.  The second system is forecast to be the stronger of the
two, and will be intensifying over the northern Plains Wednesday morning.

Elsewhere, monsoonal showers and embedded thunderstorms from the Four
Corners to the Southern Rockies today should have tapered off by Tuesday. 
Across the Pacific Northwest, heat is forecast to peak today with
record-high temperatures reaching as high as the upper-90s before cooling
off on Tuesday.  The Desert Southwest and the Central Valley of California
will remain hot, with highs in the 110s and 90s-100s, respectively. 
Florida will see more numerous showers and thunderstorms across the
northern part of the state through the next couple of days.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php