Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017
Valid 00Z Fri May 26 2017 - 00Z Sun May 28 2017
...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central High Plains...
...Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms and slight risk of flash flooding
possible across the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley...
A strong upper level low will swing out from the Southeast into the
Atlantic Ocean this evening. This will push the cold front even farther
away from the East Coast. However, the primary low will move off the
Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and track northward along the New England
coastline. This will bring showers and thunderstorms throughout the
Northeast and New England on Friday. By Friday night, the low will
approach Nova Scotia and cause precipitation to taper off throughout the
night. Cooler temperatures are expected from the Mid-Atlantic to New
England tonight and tomorrow; by Saturday, temperatures will return to
An occluded front is slowly moving through the Plains with a stationary
front that is stretching back into the Central Basin. This front will
move into the Upper Midwest by early tomorrow morning and will bring
showers across the region. by Friday afternoon, thunderstorms will
develop along the boundary as it approaches the Upper Great Lakes. The
front will weaken as it moves across the Great Lakes--thus precipitation
will be expected to mostly stay in southern Canada on Saturday. The
stationary portion of the front will slowly move southward through the
Central Great Basin and central Rockies throughout the short term period.
This will act as a focal point to set off showers and thunderstorms
throughout the regions. On Thursday and Friday, there is a slight risk of
severe thunderstorms for eastern Colorado/northwestern Kansas as multiple
rounds of convection move across these regions.
By Saturday, a front will eject out into the Plains and Mississippi Valley
ahead of a digging upper low. Deep southerly flow will transport moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the front--setting off thunderstorms from
the Front Range to the Ohio Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has an
enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for the southern Plains and the
middle Mississippi Valley. There is also a slight risk of flash flooding
along this front. As a result of the deep southerly flow, above average
temperatures will be expected for most of the eastern U.S. for the
beginning of the holiday weekend.
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php