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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0802Z May 24, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 402 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 12Z Fri May 24 2024 - 12Z Sun May 26 2024 ...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorm chances extend from the Midwest to the southern Plains today... ...Next round of severe weather to develop across the central/southern Plains Saturday evening before shifting into parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys on Sunday... ...Dangerous and potentially record-breaking heat continues across South Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern Florida through Memorial Day... The relentlessly active spring weather pattern is set to continue through the holiday weekend as two separate systems are anticipated to be responsible for numerous showers and thunderstorms across the middle of the Nation. An initial low pressure system deepening over the northern Plains today, while an attached cold front extends from the Upper Midwest to the Southern Plains, should maintain a focus for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Additionally, cold air aloft on the backside of the strong system could allow for snow to mix with rain across parts of North Dakota. Along the cold front as it extends southward, storms could turn severe from the Midwest to the southern Plains, with the greatest potential for tornadoes across central to northern Illinois, far eastern Iowa, and southern Wisconsin. This same cold front could slow it's forward progress and allow for thunderstorms to potentially train across parts of southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and northeast Texas, leading to the threat of scattered flash flooding. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms may dampen outdoors plans throughout the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. The next shortwave to eject out of the western U.S. and into the Great Plains is expected to spark the next round of severe weather late on Saturday in the central/southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure forming in the lee of the central Rockies is forecast to lift a warm front northward to the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley, while a sharp dryline extends southward into the southern Plains. These features combined with a strengthening low-level jet will allow for storms to turn severe, containing a risk for large hail, intense rainfall rates, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe thunderstorms across parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, and western Missouri in order to highlight the threat. As clusters of storms move eastward with the system on Sunday, the flash flooding and severe weather will shift to the mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys. Tornadoes, hail, strong winds, and flash flooding will be possible. Residents and visitors located within the threat for severe weather this weekend are urged to have multiple ways of receiving warnings and to continue to check for the latest forecast. Elsewhere, heat remains the main weather story along the Gulf Coast, South Texas, and southern Florida. The hottest locations are forecast throughout South Texas into late this weekend as highs soar above the century mark, with heat indices up to 120 degrees possible. Temperatures into the upper 90s are anticipated to spread into much of Texas on Saturday and Sunday as well. High heat indices will also impact the immediate Gulf Coast region and South Florida, while also potentially breaking a few record high temperatures. Warm overnight conditions will also provide little to no relief for those without adequate or reliable cooling. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php