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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0715Z Jun 27, 2022)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 315 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2022 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 27 2022 - 12Z Wed Jun 29 2022 ...Heavy rain may lead to additional instances of flash flooding over parts of the Southwest and southern Rockies through at least Tuesday... ...Isolated chances for excessive rainfall forecast across the East Coast today and Southeast/Gulf Coast States through midweek, with isolated chances for severe weather located across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday... ...Above average temperatures and summer heat to impact much of the West today before shifting into the northern/central Plains by Wednesday... After a wet and stormy several days across the Southwest and southern Rockies, additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast to start the workweek. Anomalous atmospheric moisture content will allow for thunderstorms to contain intense rainfall rates, which could lead to isolated-to-scattered flash floods. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued for today across much of central and western New Mexico. Once again, areas near burn scars will be most at risk to impacts from scattered downpours. Heavy rain chances are forecast to become more isolated and shift slightly southward on Tuesday. A potent cold front gradually completing its trek across the Nation will spark scattered thunderstorms from the East Coast to the Deep South today. The greatest threat from these storms will be associated with heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out, especially in urban regions. A warm and humid airmass located across the Deep South will also set up an environment conducive for scattered pop-up thunderstorms that may produce torrential rain at times. This airmass and the aforementioned frontal boundary are expected to linger near the Gulf Coast and Southeast through midweek. Thus, the forecast is expected to remain similar each day and include continuing chances for thunderstorms and isolated chances for flash flooding. Elsewhere, a cold front entering from south-central Canada may spark severe weather across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. At the same time a separate system entering the Pacific Northwest and ejecting into the northern Plains could create a similar severe risk across northern/central Montana. Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail are expected to be the main hazards within the developing thunderstorms. The final days of June will feature more heat across parts of the country, but also some relief for others. A strong upper-level ridge situated over the West Coast today will allow for widespread above average temperatures to stretch from California and the Pacific Northwest to the Intermountain West. Away from the immediate coast and mountain ranges, highs are forecast to reach into the 90s and low 100s. Scattered Heat Advisories have been issued for parts of California, Oregon, and Washington. These above average temperatures are forecast to shift eastward and into the northern/central Plains by Wednesday. Highs are expected to top out near the century mark across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota, which equates to 15-20 degrees above average compared to normal late-June temperatures. Conversely, the aforementioned cold front has ushered in cooler and drier air across most of the central and eastern U.S. to start the week. High temperatures are forecast to remain comfortable and range from the low 70s to low 80s between the southern Plains and Northeast. A slow warming trend will commence for most locations on Tuesday, but remain near average and include pleasant weather through midweek. Snell Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php