Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 14 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 16 2025

...Heavy rainfall likely with dangerous flooding and debris flows possible
for parts of Southern California today into the weekend...

...Widespread well above-normal to record-breaking warmth across the
Plains today....

...Damaging winds across portions of the Northern Rockies and High Plains
today...

A slow-moving upper-level low is currently amplifying and sliding
southward along the California coast, funneling an atmospheric river of
deep Pacific moisture into the state. This system is likely to deliver
periods of heavy rain, strong winds, and high-elevation snow to Central
and Southern California today and into weekend. Widespread rainfall totals
of 2 to 5 inches are expected across the urban and coastal areas of
Southern California over the next 48 hours. The most significant amounts
are forecast over the favored coastal-facing slopes of the Transverse
Ranges, where localized totals could exceed 6 inches by the time the
system begins to depart on Sunday. Excessive rainfall is the primary,
life-threatening concern, with widespread flash flooding and debris flows
likely across the vulnerable burn scar areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura,
and Los Angeles Counties.

Additionally, Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for the higher
elevations of the central and  southern Sierra Nevada, where snow
accumulations exceeding a foot, along with powerful winds, will create
very difficult travel conditions.

High Wind Warnings remain in effect across parts of the Northern Rockies
and High Plains today. A tight pressure gradient along an advancing cold
front will generate powerful, potentially damaging winds, with gusts
forecast to reach as high as 85 mph. These winds may move loose debris,
damage property and cause power outages. Travel could be difficult,
especially for high profile vehicles.

Ahead of the the previously noted front, a pronounced surge of
unseasonably warm air is resulting in near-record to record-breaking high
temperatures across a broad region of the Central and Southern Plains.
Highs are forecast to reach the upper 60s and 70s, up to 20-30 degrees
above normal, across parts of the Northern and Central Plains. Farther
south, temperatures will soar into the upper 70s and low 80s across Texas
and Oklahoma. Numerous daily temperature records will likely be broken
today from Texas to South Dakota.  The combination of this unusual warmth,
low relative humidity, and the strong, gusty winds will create favorable
fire weather conditions. Therefore, Red Flag Warnings are in effect for
portions of Nebraska and South Dakota, where any ignition could lead to
rapid growth.

Temperatures over the Northern and Central Plains will retreat from their
well-above-normal highs over the weekend as the cold front pushes south. 
Conversely, the Southern Plains (including much of Texas and Oklahoma)
will remain well above normal, with additional daily record high
temperatures likely through the weekend.

Mostly dry and seasonable conditions will prevail across the Eastern U.S.
through Friday, with a rebound to above-normal temperatures across the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast following an early-week chill. The next period
of widespread precipitation will arrive this weekend as the frontal system
advances out of the Central U.S. This front will bring the chance for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Upper Ohio Valley,
with a limited risk of strong wind gusts.  As the system pivots east, a
developing surface low will bring a mix of rain and a period of wintry
precipitation to the interior Northeast on Sunday.

Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php