Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 PM EDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 10 2026 - 00Z Fri Jun 12 2026

...Severe weather and heavy rainfall to focus over the Plains and Midwest
this week...

...Hazardous heat migrates toward the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic by
midweek...

...Critical fire weather conditions expected over the Four Corners region
and Central High Plains...

Over the next 2 days, a frontal system originating from the Pacific
Northwest is forecast to press into the Plains States ahead of a strong
upper-trough. Ahead of this system, a continuous southerly flow of warm
and unstable air into the Heartland will set the stage for widespread
thunderstorms capable of both heavy rainfall and severe weather over the
next few days. Today, an expansive area from the the Dakotas to the
Oklahoma Panhandle are at risk for numerous severe thunderstorms capable
of all modes of severe weather. By tonight, the development of a
thunderstorm complex from this afternoon's activity could also drive
isolated to scattered flash flooding over portions of the Northern Tier
and Upper Midwest. The forecast for severe weather and heavy rainfall over
the next two days is equally impactful as the front gradually presses
eastward, with major metropolitan areas including Minneapolis, Chicago,
St. Louis, and Kansas City all at risk according to the latest Convective
and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks. 

Thunderstorms aside, the sultry airmass combined with daytime highs in the
90's and triple digits should make for an uncomfortable few days ahead of
the cold front. The latest experimental HeatRisk depicts widespread major
to locally extreme heat impacts over portions of the Plains today which
migrate toward the Mississippi Valley and Midwest by midweek. As we look
toward the end of the work week on Friday, much of the warm weather will
concentrate over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, where numerous daily high
temperature records could fall. In stark contrast, areas behind the front
can enjoy a brief reprieve from the warm weather as temperatures fall
10-20 degrees with the frontal passage. The slow arrival of the frontal
boundary into the High Plains and Great Basin will also support dry and
windy weather over the next few days, which will support Elevated to
Critical Fire Weather conditions today and tomorrow there.

Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php