Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EST Mon Dec 05 2022
Valid 00Z Tue Dec 06 2022 - 00Z Thu Dec 08 2022
...Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding possible from the Southern
Appalachians/Tennessee Valley region into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
...Much above average temperatures on tap from the Central and Southern
Plains, eastward into the east. Below average temperatures expected
across areas west of the Rockies and across the Northern Plains...
...Accumulating snows possible across the Northern Plains and through
portions of the Rockies...
There is a heavy rain threat with isolated flash flooding over the next
few days across a large portion of the nation from the Southern
Appalachians/Tennessee Valley region, west southwestward into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. A slow moving surface frontal boundary
will remain across these areas for the next few days, helping to pool
above average levels of moisture near this front, supporting heavy rains
and the potential for isolated flash flooding. The first round of
potentially heavy rains along this front will be from this afternoon into
early Tuesday across the Tennessee Valley into the Southern Appalachians.
This will be followed by a second round of heavy rain developing Wednesday
from the Southern Plains, across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the
Tennessee Valley. Portions of these regions have had above average
precipitation over the past few weeks, resulting in increasingly saturated
soils, with heavy rain potential on these saturated soils increasing the
flash flood threat. While not as heavy as across the above mentioned
regions, wet weather also likely from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast
during Tuesday and Wednesday.
The overall pattern supporting the wet weather from the Southern Plains
into the Northeast will also support much above average temperatures over
the next few days from the Central to Southern Plains, eastward into the
east. A few record high minimum temperatures possible Tuesday morning
across the Lower Mississippi Valley, with a much more expansive area of
potentially record high minimum temperature possible Wednesday morning
across portions of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley,
Tennessee Valley, Mid Atlantic and northeast.
Below average temperatures over the next few days are expected across
areas west of the Rockies and across the Northern Plains. The greatest
below average temperatures are expected across the Northern Plains where
arctic air will keep temperatures 15-20 degrees below average from eastern
Montana, across the Dakotas and into Minnesota. There are, however, not
expected to be any record cold temperatures across this region over the
next two days. This area will also see the threat of periods of
accumulating snows over the next two days. Amounts are not expected to be
very heavy, generally in the 1 to 4 inch range. The heaviest snows over
the next few days expected through the Rockies of Colorado, northwest
Montana and northern Idaho where totals in excess of a foot are possible
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