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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2000Z May 14, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Valid 00Z Wed May 15 2024 - 00Z Fri May 17 2024 ...Unsettled weather spreads into parts of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast today... ...Hazardous heat possible across South Florida and South Texas this week ... ...Significant flash flooding possible across portions of East Texas and Louisiana on Thursday... A fairly weak frontal system centered over the Missouri Bootheel continues to drive wet and unsettled weather east of the Mississippi River today, with several areas of shower and thunderstorm activity noted across the eastern half of the Lower 48. Through tomorrow morning, the Storm Prediction Center maintains a Slight Risk of severe weather across the Tennessee Valley and over North-Central Florida as thunderstorms organize and intensify this afternoon. Severe hail and wind remain the primary concerns, although a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated flash flooding also can not be ruled out with some of these storms along the slow moving front, with localized rainfall of 1-3" possible. Across South Florida, persistent southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching mid-level ridge axis will set the stage for very warm weather beginning tomorrow, with heat indices exceeding 100 degrees possible. Localized Major heat-related impacts are possible with this round of hot weather through the work week according to experimental NWS HeatRisk guidance. Hazardous heat also will build into South Texas tomorrow and Thursday as a warm front returns northward from the Gulf of Mexico, ushering in a very warm and moist airmass into the region. Heat aside, this returning warm front will also set the stage for potentially significant heavy rainfall across East Texas and Louisiana on Thursday as training thunderstorms focus along the frontal boundary. The current forecast calls for areal rainfall totals of 3-4" (locally higher) in this region, which has seen a near continuous stream of heavy rainfall over the last two weeks and is particularly sensitive to any additional rain. Accordingly, a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) is in effect on the Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, which suggests numerous instances of flash flooding are likely Thursday into Friday. Asherman Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php