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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0751Z Dec 03, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 251 AM EST Sun Dec 03 2023 Valid 12Z Sun Dec 03 2023 - 12Z Tue Dec 05 2023 ...A multi-day atmospheric river event will continue to impact the Northwest and Rockies with heavy rain and significant mountain snowfall Sunday and into Monday... ...Unsettled weather is forecast across the eastern third of the country with rain along the East Coast & wintry weather from parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes to northern New England... ...Generally milder than normal temperatures expected for across most of the Lower 48... A series of atmospheric rivers are forecast to produce heavy rainfall in the Pacific Northwest into the upcoming week while heavy snow continues in the Northern Rockies through Sunday. Unlike the past few days in the the Pacific Northwest when heavy snow was the most impactful precipitation type, the next storm system accompanying today's atmospheric river will track farther north. This will stream milder air into western Oregon and Washington, forcing rain to be the dominant precipitation type. Rain will fall heavily at times in areas that now contains fresh snowpack, most notably in western Oregon. This is a recipe for minor to moderate river flooding, as well as flash flooding. WPC has issued a Slight Risk for the Oregon Coast and the Cascade Range in both Oregon and southern Washington. After a brief break between atmospheric rivers Sunday night, the next atmospheric river arrives Monday with the heaviest rainfall likely to occur in western Washington. WPC issued a pair of Slight Risks for the Olympic Peninsula, northwest Oregon, and the Washington Cascades. Through Monday night, portions of western Washington and Oregon can expect anywhere from 3-7" of additional rainfall with locally higher amounts possible. Farther inland, the higher terrain of central Idaho, the Tetons in western Wyoming, the Wasatch in northern Utah, and the Colorado Rockies have moderate-to-high chances (50-80%) of receiving greater than 12" of snowfall. Most of the snowfall is expected to occur on Sunday with lighter amounts in the northern Rockies on Monday. Farther east, a storm system tracking through the eastern Great Lakes is set to generate periods of rain and snow in the Great Lakes and as far west as the Upper Mississippi Valley this morning. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather in western Pennsylvania today. In the Northeast, widespread showers are anticipated from the Southeast on north along the Northeast's I-95 corridor. In northern New England, temperatures will remain cold enough for accumulating snow, particularly in the northern Appalachians. Snow will pick up in intensity Sunday afternoon and persist into Monday morning from northern New York and Vermont through central and northern Maine. Latest WPC probabilities show a high chance (>70%) for snowfall totals >8" in the White Mountains of northern New Hampshire and into central Maine. The Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) depicts Moderate impacts in these areas, while lighter amounts (>4" amounts) have a high chance (>70%) of occurring in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks, the Green Mountains, and into northern Maine. Minor Impacts are likely in those areas according to the WSSI. Expect hazardous travel conditions in these areas Sunday night and into the day on Monday. Light snow may stick around into Monday night and early Tuesday across northern New England as the storm slowly makes its way out to sea on Tuesday. Elsewhere, a fast moving disturbance tracking southeast through the Upper Midwest may bring light rain and snow to portions of the region Monday night and into Tuesday. Temperature-wise, most of the continental U.S. remains devoid of frigid or winter-like air-masses. Much of the Southeast and coastal Mid-Atlantic are likely to wake up to record breaking mild minimum temperatures today. The same is also be possible in the Pacific Northwest Monday and Tuesday mornings. Temperatures will continue to warm up in the West by Tuesday, but colder temperatures look to make a return in the East by mid-week. Mullinax Graphics available at