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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1916Z Dec 05, 2022)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 216 PM EST Mon Dec 05 2022 Valid 00Z Tue Dec 06 2022 - 00Z Thu Dec 08 2022 ...Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding possible from the Southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley region into the Lower Mississippi Valley... ...Much above average temperatures on tap from the Central and Southern Plains, eastward into the east. Below average temperatures expected across areas west of the Rockies and across the Northern Plains... ...Accumulating snows possible across the Northern Plains and through portions of the Rockies... There is a heavy rain threat with isolated flash flooding over the next few days across a large portion of the nation from the Southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley region, west southwestward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. A slow moving surface frontal boundary will remain across these areas for the next few days, helping to pool above average levels of moisture near this front, supporting heavy rains and the potential for isolated flash flooding. The first round of potentially heavy rains along this front will be from this afternoon into early Tuesday across the Tennessee Valley into the Southern Appalachians. This will be followed by a second round of heavy rain developing Wednesday from the Southern Plains, across the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the Tennessee Valley. Portions of these regions have had above average precipitation over the past few weeks, resulting in increasingly saturated soils, with heavy rain potential on these saturated soils increasing the flash flood threat. While not as heavy as across the above mentioned regions, wet weather also likely from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast during Tuesday and Wednesday. The overall pattern supporting the wet weather from the Southern Plains into the Northeast will also support much above average temperatures over the next few days from the Central to Southern Plains, eastward into the east. A few record high minimum temperatures possible Tuesday morning across the Lower Mississippi Valley, with a much more expansive area of potentially record high minimum temperature possible Wednesday morning across portions of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Mid Atlantic and northeast. Below average temperatures over the next few days are expected across areas west of the Rockies and across the Northern Plains. The greatest below average temperatures are expected across the Northern Plains where arctic air will keep temperatures 15-20 degrees below average from eastern Montana, across the Dakotas and into Minnesota. There are, however, not expected to be any record cold temperatures across this region over the next two days. This area will also see the threat of periods of accumulating snows over the next two days. Amounts are not expected to be very heavy, generally in the 1 to 4 inch range. The heaviest snows over the next few days expected through the Rockies of Colorado, northwest Montana and northern Idaho where totals in excess of a foot are possible Oravec Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php