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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1952Z Jun 04, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 352 PM EDT Sun Jun 04 2023 Valid 00Z Mon Jun 05 2023 - 00Z Wed Jun 07 2023 ...Areas of heavy rain and flash flooding possible across the southern High Plains over the next few days... ...Above average temperatures remain throughout the northern Plains and build into the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday... A continuing stagnant upper-level pattern is forecast to remain over North America the next couple of days, with upper-level lows deepening by Tuesday near the Northeast and Southwest, providing a focus for areas of unsettled weather. Instances of flash flooding remain a notable weather hazard throughout the southern High Plains each day into the beginning of this week. Recent rainfall has overly saturated ground conditions and left much of northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle highly susceptible to renewed flash flooding. Additionally, burn scars throughout the higher terrain of New Mexico are also sensitive to intense rainfall rates leading to rapid runoff. To further highlight the flooding concerns, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect through early Monday morning from western Oklahoma to northeast New Mexico, including the Texas Panhandle. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall continues across northeast New Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected throughout the remaining of the High Plains, southern Plains, Rockies, and northern Great Basin. Some storms in these regions may also produce intense downpours and lead to localized flash flooding. A strengthening low pressure system off the coast of New England will provide cool temperatures and numerous showers the next few days as it very slowly pushes northward into Nova Scotia. To its west, a sinking cold front entering the Great Lakes and northern Plains may spark scattered showers and storms throughout the region, while also offering relief from the well above average temperatures. Cooler air is forecast to remain along the East Coast and Northeast while impacted by consistent northerly flow, which may allow for skies to become opaque as far west as the Ohio Valley due to expansive wildfires in Quebec, Canada. Outside of typical summertime impulse thunderstorms throughout the Deep South and central U.S., the other weather story of note involves well above average temperatures building into the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday as upper-level ridging squeezes westward to the north of a closed upper-level low over the Southwest. Highs into the upper 80s and low 90s are expected for this region. Snell Graphics available at