Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 11 2026 - 00Z Fri Mar 13 2026

...Widespread thunderstorms with a severe weather and flash flood risk
expected across the Midwest and central/southern Plains through tonight,
shifting east Wednesday...

...Continued active pattern for the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Rockies will bring heavy lower elevation/coastal rain and high elevation
snow through at least midweek...

...Well above average, late spring-like temperatures continue for much of
the eastern U.S. with numerous daily record-tying/breaking highs
possible...

A complex upper-level pattern with approaching split northern/southern
stream waves will bring a widespread risk for both severe weather and
flash flooding across much of the Midwest into the Central and Southern
Plains through tonight. Two main regions of thunderstorm activity are
expected where lift and deep-layer shear will be enhanced ahead of the
upper waves: the first along and ahead of a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary from the Great Lakes southwest to the Missouri Valley, and the
second ahead of a Pacific front/dryline tracking through the southern
Plains. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the northern region with
a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe weather, where tornado potential
will be higher as low-level shear should be enhanced in vicinity of the
frontal boundary. Hail and damaging winds are also a concern there. The
region over the southern Plains should see higher instability, and expect
storms to grow upscale into an organized line ahead of the Pacific front,
which will bring a greater risk of very large hail and intense damaging
winds along with a few tornadoes, leading to an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5)
there. In addition, Slight Risks of excessive rainfall (level 2/4) cover
both regions for flooding concerns. For the north, repeated rounds of
rainfall are possible with storms moving parallel to the east-west frontal
boundary, and the upscale/organized growth of storms to the south will
increase heavy rainfall coverage. A relative lull in activity may exist
between these two regions, likely in the MO/KS/AR/OK vicinity, though a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather is in place as any storms that
form will have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds. An
isolated flash flood threat will exist as well.

A somewhat similar scenario will play out Wednesday as the front continues
east into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic southwest through the
Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and into eastern Texas. A broad Slight
Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) is in place to cover the threat of
damaging winds. A more focused threat for a few tornadoes is delineated
ahead of the upper waves over the Upper Ohio Valley and adjacent
Appalachians, and separately for eastern Texas into the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Flash flooding will also remain a threat over the southern zone
with another Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in place centered on the
ArkLaTex where storm coverage will focus ahead of the merging
northern/southern frontal boundaries. The front(s) should finally sweep
through the East on Thursday and end the severe and flash flood threats by
the evening.

Meanwhile, colder air filtering in to the north of the frontal boundary
will lead to a swath of wintry precipitation from the northern Plains to
the Upper Great Lakes continuing into tonight, reaching the Great Lakes
into northern New England Wednesday. The greatest chance for some light to
moderate accumulating snowfall will be across the Upper Great Lakes and
northern Maine, while the risk for some light to moderate ice accretions
is most likely across the Great Lakes and northern New England. Then
another low pressure system looks to bring a swath of moderate to heavy
snow from the northern Plains into the Upper Great Lakes Thursday. Behind
this second system, High Wind Watches are in place for gusty winds behind
the reasonably strong low.

An already active precipitation pattern over the Pacific Northwest into
the northern Rockies is not only expected to continue but see increased
heavy precipitation chances through at least midweek. Lower elevation
valley/coastal rain and heavy high elevation/interior snows are already
ongoing following the passage of a system to start the week. Then, on
Wednesday, another Pacific system/atmospheric river will bring an influx
of greater moisture bringing even heavier rainfall and mountain snows
through Wednesday and Thursday. Higher elevations of the Cascades and
Olympics in particular could see several feet of snow, and expected gusty
winds have already prompted Blizzard Warnings. Isolated flooding will be
possible for lower elevations, and Marginal Risks of excessive rainfall
are in place.

Well above average, late spring-like weather will continue for most of the
eastern U.S. through midweek, though a backdoor front should cool northern
New England. Forecast highs on Wednesday range in the 50s and 60s for
southern New England, the 70s and 80s for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
to Mid-Atlantic, and the 80s from the Southern Plains through the
Southeast. These temperatures are more typical of May and early June in
most areas, and numerous daily record-tying/breaking highs may be set.
Colder, more seasonable air will come into the Midwest behind a front on
Wednesday, which reaches the east-central U.S. on Thursday. Portions of
the western U.S. will see above average conditions as well, with 50s and
60s for the Great Basin, 60s and 70s in California, and 80s for the Desert
Southwest. Temperatures are forecast to increase into Thursday and further
into the medium range period, and HeatRisk should continue to increase to
Moderate and locally Major levels in southern California. Farther north,
temperatures should moderate a bit but still be slightly below average for
the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies.


Tate/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php