Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Valid 00Z Mon Mar 25 2024 - 00Z Wed Mar 27 2024
...Significant Winter Storm across parts of the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest...
...There is a Sight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys on Monday and over parts of
the Central Gulf Coast on Tuesday...
...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Sunday and the Lower Mississippi Valley on
Monday...
A Significant Winter Storm will develop over the Northern/Central Plains,
Upper Mississippi Valley, and Upper Great Lakes from Sunday evening into
Tuesday. The winter storm will be high-impact and an extensive system
producing widespread heavy snow and gusty winds that will persist
throughout the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through Tuesday. Heavy
snow will spread across much of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on
Sunday and continue into Monday. There is a high chance (greater than 70%)
of at least eight inches of snow extending from northern Nebraska and
central South Dakota northeastward to northeastern Minnesota and
northwestern Wisconsin.
In addition, the storm will create hazardous impacts from heavy snow, snow
load, and wind. Moreover, heavy snow and gusty wind will produce areas of
blowing/drifting snow and possible blizzard conditions on Sunday into
Monday. Likewise, hazardous travel and road closures are expected late
Sunday into Monday. Strong winds and heavy, wet snow on trees and power
lines may damage trees and cause power outages. Also, there will be a
broad area of light rain/freezing rain over parts of the Central Plains
into the Upper Great Lakes.
Furthermore, strong wind gusts over 50 mph on Sunday may result in power
outages, blowing dust with reduced visibility, difficult travel, and
property damage as High Wind Watches and Warnings are over the
Central/Southern Plains. Further, with the high wind, critical fire
weather conditions are forecast for Sunday over the Southern High Plains.
Meanwhile, the front associated with the storm extends from
Central/Southern Plains and moves eastward to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening. As the front and
dryline move out of the Rockies, showers and severe thunderstorms will
develop over the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains through Monday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
On Monday, the front moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley, creating
showers and severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, there is
an increased threat of EF2 to EF5 tornados over the area.
In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Central/Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Central/Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys from Monday
into Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable.
By Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms decreases slightly to a
Marginal Risk over parts of the Ohio Valley, with a second area over parts
of the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast.
Similarly, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts
of the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Eastern
Gulf Coast on Tuesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable.
In the wake of the storm, under an upper-level low, lower-elevation rain
and higher-elevation snow will extend from the Pacific Northwest to
California, Southwest, and Southern Rockies through Monday morning. On
Monday, the precipitation mostly ends over California.
However, a surge of energy moving into the Northwest will aid in producing
rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of Northern California on Monday
afternoon into late evening. The energy will also create coastal rain and
higherâ€elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest through
Tuesday afternoon. Moreover, higher-elevation snow will continue from the
Northern Intermountain Region, Great Basin, Southwest, and Southern
Rockies through Tuesday evening.
Ziegenfelder
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php