Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 AM EDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 08 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 10 2024

...Hurricane Milton has intensified into a powerful storm and is expected
to make landfall along the west coast of Florida late Wednesday evening...

...Milton will bring life-threatening impacts to much of Florida including
a destructive storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds, and
considerable flash and urban flooding...

...Unseasonably hot temperatures expand over much of the western and
central U.S., some record-tying/breaking highs possible...

Hurricane Milton has rapidly intensified and is currently a powerful
Category 4 storm located near the Yucatan Peninsula, forecast by the
National Hurricane Center (NHC) to track northeastward and make landfall
in the Tampa Bay vicinity late Wednesday evening. However, the Hurricane
will have wide-reaching impacts far away from the landfall location
beginning by early Wednesday and covering the west coast of Florida and
much of the central and northern Florida Peninsula. This includes but is
not limited to Tampa-St. Petersburg, Sarasota-Bradenton, Cape Coral-Fort
Myers, Lakeland-Winter Haven, and Orlando. A large area of destructive,
potentially catastrophic storm surge will occur along the west coast of
Florida on Wednesday, with the highest peak surge forecast to be between
10-15 feet in the Tampa Bay area south to Charlotte Harbor. Potentially
devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west
coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is
forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and
life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
to spread well inland across the entire Florida Peninsula. Areas of heavy
rainfall may begin as early as today (Tuesday) for the Peninsula, with a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect for some scattered
flash flooding. Then, by late Tuesday/early Wednesday, the coverage and
intensity of rainfall will rapidly increase with the approach and landfall
of Milton, particularly for central and northern portions of the Peninsula
where a High Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 4/4) has been issued.
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches,
are possible and will lead to significant and considerable flash, urban,
and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding
will be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to
increase the overall threat. If Milton remains on its current track, it
will be the worst storm to impact the Tampa area in over 100 years, please
evacuate if told to do so. In addition, while Hurricane Milton is expected
to experience some weakening prior to landfall, the forecast for
potentially life-threatening impacts already takes this into account and
the threat for devastating winds, destructive storm surge, and
considerable flash and urban flooding remains regardless of this
weakening. Keep checking the latest forecast from the NHC, WPC, and your
local NWS forecast office for the most up-to-date information regarding
Milton including track, intensity, and impact information. 

Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected to expand in coverage over much
of the western and central U.S. under the influence of an upper-level
ridge of high pressure into mid-week. While forecast highs have come down
a few degrees in California and the Desert Southwest following a
long-duration heat wave, and most heat-related advisories and warnings
have expired, conditions will still be unseasonably hot. Forecast highs
will be in the 90s for interior central California and into the 100s in
the Desert Southwest. Temperatures in general will be upwards of 10-20
degrees above average for many locations, particularly in the northern
Plains, where forecast highs Tuesday-Wednesday will reach as high as the
mid-80s. Areas of the central Plains will be in the mid- to upper 80s with
upper 80s to mid-90s for the southern Plains/Texas. The Great Basin and
lower elevations of the Rockies will be into the 80s as well.

Elsewhere, some lake-effect showers are expected the next couple of days
east of the Lower Great Lakes over New York, with some more spotty showers
possible into northern New England as an upper-level low churns overhead.
Much of the eastern U.S. will see generally seasonable highs for Fall
following a cold front passage, with 50s for the Upper Great
Lakes/interior Northeast, 60s for the coastal Northeast, 60s to 70s for
the Midwest/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic, and 70s to low 80s in the South.
Some areas of the Upper Great Lakes and interior Northeast may see lows
drop into the 30s with some patchy frost possible. A system moving into
the Pacific Northwest will bring some showers Tuesday, tapering off
Wednesday, with highs in the 60s.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php