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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0739Z Jun 26, 2022)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 339 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 Valid 12Z Sun Jun 26 2022 - 12Z Tue Jun 28 2022 ...Heavy rain and flash flooding possible across much of the Southwest and southern Rockies over the next few days... ...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible throughout the Lower Great Lakes, upper Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley today... ...High heat and humidity to persist for one more day across the southern Plains and the Gulf Coast states, with heat continuing to build throughout much of the West... Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely to impact the Southwest and southern Rockies today as ample moisture remains in place along with a settling stationary boundary extending from West Texas to Arizona. Much of this region will gladly welcome more rain, given the severe to exceptional drought in place, but too much precipitation in a short period of time may lead to flash floods. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued for much of central/northern New Mexico and southern Colorado through tonight in order to highlight the concern, with a smaller Slight Risk issued for Monday over north-central New Mexico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts, could lead to rapid runoff and flooding concerns particularly near burn scars. The threat of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to gradually diminish and shift southward on Tuesday. A cold front advancing across the eastern and southern U.S. will create the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms today, with the greatest threat extending from the Lower Great Lakes to the Tennessee Valley. A few storms could contain damaging wind gusts, frequent lighting, and heavy rain. Chances for isolated flash floods will also extend along much of the cold front as it reaches the East Coast on Monday. Meanwhile, a hot and sultry airmass across the Deep South and Southeast will be supportive of scattered pop-up thunderstorms through early this week as the aforementioned cold front loses forward speed and eventually stalls over the region. Slow-moving thunderstorms will have the capability of producing intense rainfall rates and isolated flash flooding. Farther north, a system entering from south-central Canada will lead to thunderstorm chances over the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, a few of which could turn severe. One more day of dangerous heat, humidity, and potentially record breaking temperatures are forecast across the Deep South and southern Plains before some relief arrives on Monday and Tuesday. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 90s and low 100s today from central Texas to Mississippi, with heat indices well into the tripe digits. Above average temperatures will also stretch northeastward through much of the eastern U.S. and into northern New England, with highs into the upper 80s and 90s. Cooler temperatures will enter much of the central and eastern U.S. by Monday and Tuesday behind a potent cold front. For the West, a building upper-level ridge will allow for highs to surge into the 90s and near 100 degrees from central California through the Intermountain West and into the Pacific Northwest. This equates to around 20 degrees above average compared to normal late-June highs. Heat Advisories have been issued for much of eastern Oregon and Washington, as well as parts of California. The heat will be relatively short lived over the Northwest, as an approaching storm system ushers in cooler air by Tuesday. Snell Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php