Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Jul 04 2025 - 00Z Sun Jul 06 2025

...There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across the northern Plains
for the 4th of July with lingering areas of heavy rainfall possible across
western Texas and Florida.

...Strong thunderstorms will be possible for Friday and Saturday across
most of the Plains and along the Upper Midwest as a front enters the
region...

Heat will be migrating eastwards from the Great Lakes region towards the
East Coast through the Holiday weekend, with notable population centers
entering the Major Heat Risk category...

In general, the forecast weather pattern has not changed from yesterday's
thoughts. For the 4th of July, there will still be ample moisture at the
surface across the Southwest. The flooding risk may not be as high as
previous days, but a Marginal Risk continues across areas of western Texas
where locally heavy rain amounts could prompt flash flooding, especially
in low lying areas. Florida will continue to see abundant showers and
thunderstorms on Friday with the combination of lowering pressures around
a decaying frontal boundary. Some areas along the Tampa Bay region may see
locally heavy rain, even for July standards in the region, which could
produce ponding in low-lying locations. For the High Plains into
Minnesota, some stronger, organized storms could fire along a cold front
moving into the region tomorrow. Training of linear storm clusters could
drop 2-3 inches of rainfall and thus WPC has issued a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4).

The 4th of July could be stormy for much of the central and northern
Plains. Energy from a shortwave trough within the broader trough moving in
from the west should spark organized thunderstorms from Kansas to North
Dakota over the next few days. The northern Rockies and upper Midwest
could also see locally strong storms on Saturday with the proximity to a
cold front moving into the area. The main hazards should be strong winds
with storm clusters that organize. Some hail will also be possible in
super-cellular structures. The Storm Prediction Center also continues to
show an Elevated fire weather risk across the Great Basin tomorrow with
gusty winds and low relative humidities.

For temperatures on the 4th of July, most of the West, southern Plains,
and Northeast should see temperatures slightly below average for this time
of the year. Highs in the West will see 70s and 60s in the northern parts
of the region, while the southern part of the West still reaches the lower
to middle 80s. The Desert Southwest will be in the low 100s and plenty
warm still. The rainfall will keep temperatures in check around Texas and
Florida with highs mostly in the upper 80s. A cold front will clear the
Northeast and bring lower humidity with maximum temperatures in the 70s
and the 80s. The hotpot for the 4th will be the Midwest and Ohio Valley
with high temperatures in the middle 90s. This heat will shift towards the
east coast into the early work week and late weekend. Residents in cities
from the Great Lakes to the urban corridor by Sunday and Monday will want
to drink plenty of water and take cool breaks.



Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php