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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1822Z Jun 25, 2022)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 222 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Valid 00Z Sun Jun 26 2022 - 00Z Tue Jun 28 2022 ...Monsoonal moisture and an approaching cold front to create the threat of heavy rain and instances of flash flooding over portions of the Southwest, southern Rockies, and central/southern High Plains... ...Isolated areas of severe weather are possible from the central Plains and Midwest through this evening, and stretching to the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes on Sunday... ...High heat and humidity to persist across the southern Plains and the Gulf Coast states through Sunday, with heat building along the West Coast and spreading across the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin through early next week... A strong cold front advancing across the central and eastern U.S. will again be the focus for much of the impactful weather heading into the early part of next week. This front combined with a persistent pool of monsoonal moisture across much of the Southwest will favor numerous showers and thunderstorms through this evening and into the overnight hours with an emphasis on northern New Mexico, southern Colorado, and eastward through the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Heavy rainfall is expected locally, and some areas of flash flooding will be possible, particularly in geographically prone regions and near burn scars. Additional heavy rain is forecast for Sunday and Monday across especially areas of the southern Rockies, as the moisture continues to focus over the region and lifts along and north of the aforementioned front into the higher terrain. Rainfall totals across portions of northern New Mexico and far southern Colorado through Monday are forecast to be as much as 2 to 3 inches with isolated heavier amounts. The heavier totals are likely to be focused over the Sangre De Cristo mountains where there are several burn scar areas. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued through Sunday and Monday morning across this region to address the excessive rainfall threat. Along the same cold front, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Midwest to the central Plains today and for the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday. In fact, a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather is depicted through tonight across northeast Missouri, southeast Iowa, and central Illinois. Some large hail and damaging winds will be possible with these thunderstorms as the develop in response to the very warm and moist airmass. An isolated risk of flash flooding will be possible as well. Scattered thunderstorms are also expected over the next couple of days across the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and into the southern/central Appalachians through the end of the weekend. The upper-level pattern over the next couple of days will feature ridging extending from the south-central U.S. to the Mid-Atlantic states, and troughing over the north-central U.S. and gradually the Great Lakes region. An extensive ridge of high pressure will meanwhile will be building along the West Coast and extending into the Great Basin and Southwest. Surface high temperatures are forecast to soar to nearly 20 degrees above average for parts of the West, most notably the Pacific Northwest, while sultry heat and humidity persists across the Gulf Coast states. Highs across Oregon and Washington are likely to reach well into the 90s between today and Monday, which has prompted Heat Advisories to be issued. High temperatures in the low 100s are forecast across the central valley region of California. For the southern Plains and lower/middle Mississippi Valley, the combination of heat and humidity will make it feel like it is nearly 110 degrees locally. Heat advisories are in effect for these areas as well, and include areas of southwest Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, and north-central Texas over to the central Gulf Coast. Highs will also surge above average for late-June and into the 90s from the Ohio Valley to northern New England through Sunday. Conversely, well below average temperatures will be focused locally across the central Plains and Rockies underneath thick cloud cover and rain behind the previously mentioned cold front. In fact, some areas of southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico are expected to have high temperatures as much as 20 to 30 degrees below average on Sunday. Snell/Orrison Graphics are available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php