Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Dec 01 2024 - 00Z Tue Dec 03 2024

...Big temperature differences across the Lower 48 with above average
temperatures from the West coast into the Rockies, while below average
temperatures stretch from the Northern Plains to the East coast...

...Active Lake effect snows to continue downwind of the Great Lakes over
the next few days...

...Poor air quality expected from the interior California Valley into the
Pacific Northwest and Northern Great Basin...

...Much of the Lower 48 will be dry over the next few days, save for
downwind of the Great Lakes and across far South Texas...


The mid to upper level flow across North America is expected to remain
amplified over the next few days, comprised of a mean trof from eastern
Canada, south into the eastern U.S., while an amplified ridge stretches
from western Canada into the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin.  This
flow pattern will keep temperatures below average from the Northern
Plains, southeast through the Mississippi Valley and across all of the
east.  High temperatures expected to be 10 to 20 degrees below average
Sunday and Monday from the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley, with the
10 to 20 degree below average temperatures spreading farther southeast
along much of the east coast by Monday.    In contrast, above average
temperatures are on tap from the West coast into the Great Basin,
Southwest, Rockies and the Central to Southern High Plains, with highs
over the next two days 10 to 15 degrees above average.

The cold air streaming across the relatively warm Great Lakes will keep
lake effect snows very active over the next few days.  The heaviest snow
totals are expected downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario, affecting areas
from northeast Ohio, far northwest Pennsylvania, western New York State
and portions of northwest New York state.  Cold air blowing along the long
axes of lakes Erie and Ontario have produced intense single banded snow
squalls that have already produced 1 to 1.5 feet of snow.  This favorable
low level flow off of Erie and Ontario will continue through Sunday,
bringing the potential for additional snow totals of 1 to 3 feet across
areas that have already seen very heavy totals.  Lake effect snows will
also be active downwind of Lake Superior and Michigan, with snow totals in
excess of a foot possible across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and the
Lower Peninsula of Michigan along the Lake Michigan shoreline.

While large sections of the West are expected to see above average
temperatures over the next few days, some of the Valley locations from the
interior or California into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Great Basin
will see cooler temperature.  These locations will be prone to stagnant
air conditions, leading to areas of dense fog and poor air quality. 

Much of the Lower 48 will be dry over the next few days, with the
exceptions being downwind of the Great Lakes into the upslope of the
Central Appalachians and over far South Texas.  This will bring no
additional relief to the widespread drought conditions affecting large
portions of the Lower 48.


Oravec




Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php