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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2000Z May 16, 2025)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 00Z Sat May 17 2025 - 00Z Mon May 19 2025 ...Severe thunderstorm outbreak expected to linger into tonight for portions of the mid-Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, along with the potential for heavy rain and flash flooding... ...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will increase the potential for flash flooding across portions of northern New England through Saturday... ...Record-breaking heat expected to continue across southern Texas, with above average temperatures extending along the Gulf Coast into the Southeast through the weekend... ...Rounds of severe weather expected this weekend across the southern to central Great Plains... An active pattern will continue through this weekend across the lower 48 with threats of severe storms, flash flooding, heat, gusty winds and increased fire weather risks. A deep surface low, tied to a robust upper level low over the Upper Midwest, will continue to support strong wind gusts across the northern Plains into Nebraska through this evening where winds have been reported between 60-70 mph (locally higher) Friday afternoon. Winds will subside across the region overnight tonight but wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible across portions of the Midwest on Saturday as the storm system moves east. A Moderate Risk (level 4 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms is in place from the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers into portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valley through this evening and overnight. Concerns for strong, potentially long-track tornadoes along with large hail and damaging straight line winds, exists for the region. A threat of flash flooding will be increased for some of these same areas into the central Appalachians through early Saturday morning as a second round of thunderstorms moves across portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, which were impacted by heavy rain earlier on Friday. As the storm system over the central to eastern U.S. tracks eastward on Saturday, renewed threats for heavy rain in New England will exist due to multiple rounds of heavy rain, adding onto locally heavy rainfall that fell on Friday. Back to the west, severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary and ahead of a dryline. These same threats will setup again on Sunday, a bit northward compared to Saturday, over Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma. Behind the dryline, gusty winds and low relative humidity values will setup a Critical Risk of fire weather from southeastern Arizona into southern New Mexico and far western Texas on Saturday. Across the southern U.S., temperatures will be roughly 10 to 20 degrees above average with record-breaking high temperatures possible over parts of South Texas. Highs in the mid-90s to 100s over inland portions of South Texas could break several daytime maximum temperature records over the weekend. Above average warmth and high heat indices will also exist across the Gulf Coast States into the Southeast, south of a stalled frontal boundary to the north. Otto Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php