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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0759Z Mar 25, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023 Valid 12Z Sat Mar 25 2023 - 12Z Mon Mar 27 2023 ...Strengthening storm system to bring rain/thunderstorms to the East Coast with snow and a wintry mix for the Great Lakes and Interior Northeast... ...Above average temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances across the South this weekend... ...Unsettled weather and chilly temperatures with locally heavy mountain snowfall persists in the West... A deepening low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes and associated trailing cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the East Coast Saturday. Increased moisture wrapping around and over colder air to the north and west of the surface low track will also bring snow to portions of the Great Lakes and Interior Northeast/New England. Winter-weather related advisories are in effect from northern Illinois through southeastern Wisconsin and into the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan for expected snow totals between 4-8 inches, locally higher, through Saturday evening. Additional advisories are out for portions of the Interior Northeast/New England, particularly higher terrain areas of northern New Hampshire into Maine, which are also expected to see snow totals between 4-8 inches, locally higher, Saturday evening and into the day Sunday. In addition to the increased precipitation chances, the rapidly deepening surface low will lead to very strong, gusty winds Saturday for the Lower Great Lakes southward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Areas from central Ohio northeast along Lake Erie into Upstate New York may see gusts as high as 60 mph. These gusty winds may also lead to areas of blowing snow further north. Chilly high temperatures in the 40s and 50s along the I-95 urban corridor of the Northeast Saturday will warm into the 60s on Sunday. The Carolinas will continue to see much above average temperatures, with highs in the low 80s forecast. Conditions will be cooler across the Great Lakes and Interior Northeast, with highs in the 30s and 40s, while locations in the Ohio Valley will see generally seasonable temperatures in the 50s and 60s. The cold front will begin to stall across the South as ridging builds in to the southeast over the Atlantic. Southerly flow will help to retain high Gulf moisture along this boundary, helping to fuel more showers and thunderstorms late Saturday and into the day Sunday. Some moderate to locally heavy rainfall is possible stretching across central Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia. In addition, warm temperatures along with the increased moisture will lead to a buoyant airmass with the potential for strong enough winds aloft Sunday evening to provide a chance for some severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather from central Louisiana east-northeastward through central Georgia for the risk of strong winds, hail, and a couple tornadoes. Further west, persistent gusty and dry downsloping winds over portions of the Southern High Plains have prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather from the Storm Prediction Center Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will remain quite a bit above average across the South Saturday with highs in the low to mid-80s. Clouds and showers on Sunday will keep temperatures a bit cooler but still above average, with upper 70s forecast for most locations. South Texas and Florida will remain much warmer, with highs in the mid- to upper 80s. Mean troughing with energetic flow aloft over the West along with a lingering surface front along the Rockies will keep temperatures cool and precipitation chances up for the region. The highest snow chances will be focused along the surface front from the northern Great Basin/Northern Rockies southeastward into the Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains, as well as over the Cascades of the Pacific Northwest as a surface trough lingers just off the coast. Locally heavy snow totals over a foot are forecast for the Cascades as well as higher elevations of the Northern Rockies through Saturday evening. High temperatures will continue to be much below average across the West this weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 30s for the Northern/Central Rockies and Great Basin, the 40s for the Pacific Northwest and Southern Rockies, 40s and 50s for northern/central California, and 50s to low 70s for southern California and the Desert Southwest. In addition, low temperatures around freezing for lower elevation coastal/valley locations of northern/central California have prompted Frost and Freeze Advisories as these temperatures could damage budding spring vegetation. Putnam Graphics available at