Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Mar 25 2023 - 12Z Mon Mar 27 2023

...Strengthening storm system to bring rain/thunderstorms to the East
Coast with snow and a wintry mix for the Great Lakes and Interior
Northeast...

...Above average temperatures with shower and thunderstorm chances across
the South this weekend...
 
...Unsettled weather and chilly temperatures with locally heavy mountain
snowfall persists in the West...

A deepening low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes and
associated trailing cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the
East Coast Saturday. Increased moisture wrapping around and over colder
air to the north and west of the surface low track will also bring snow to
portions of the Great Lakes and Interior Northeast/New England.
Winter-weather related advisories are in effect from northern Illinois
through southeastern Wisconsin and into the northern Lower Peninsula of
Michigan for expected snow totals between 4-8 inches, locally higher,
through Saturday evening. Additional advisories are out for portions of
the Interior Northeast/New England, particularly higher terrain areas of
northern New Hampshire into Maine, which are also expected to see snow
totals between 4-8 inches, locally higher, Saturday evening and into the
day Sunday. In addition to the increased precipitation chances, the
rapidly deepening surface low will lead to very strong, gusty winds
Saturday for the Lower Great Lakes southward into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Areas from central Ohio northeast along Lake Erie into Upstate
New York may see gusts as high as 60 mph. These gusty winds may also lead
to areas of blowing snow further north. Chilly high temperatures in the
40s and 50s along the I-95 urban corridor of the Northeast Saturday will
warm into the 60s on Sunday. The Carolinas will continue to see much above
average temperatures, with highs in the low 80s forecast. Conditions will
be cooler across the Great Lakes and Interior Northeast, with highs in the
30s and 40s, while locations in the Ohio Valley will see generally
seasonable temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

The cold front will begin to stall across the South as ridging builds in
to the southeast over the Atlantic. Southerly flow will help to retain
high Gulf moisture along this boundary, helping to fuel more showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday and into the day Sunday. Some moderate to
locally heavy rainfall is possible stretching across central
Mississippi/Alabama/Georgia. In addition, warm temperatures along with the
increased moisture will lead to a buoyant airmass with the potential for
strong enough winds aloft Sunday evening to provide a chance for some
severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe weather from central Louisiana east-northeastward
through central Georgia for the risk of strong winds, hail, and a couple
tornadoes. Further west, persistent gusty and dry downsloping winds over
portions of the Southern High Plains have prompted a Critical Risk of Fire
Weather from the Storm Prediction Center Saturday and Sunday. High
temperatures will remain quite a bit above average across the South
Saturday with highs in the low to mid-80s. Clouds and showers on Sunday
will keep temperatures a bit cooler but still above average, with upper
70s forecast for most locations. South Texas and Florida will remain much
warmer, with highs in the mid- to upper 80s.

Mean troughing with energetic flow aloft over the West along with a
lingering surface front along the Rockies will keep temperatures cool and
precipitation chances up for the region. The highest snow chances will be
focused along the surface front from the northern Great Basin/Northern
Rockies southeastward into the Central Rockies and adjacent High Plains,
as well as over the Cascades of the Pacific Northwest as a surface trough
lingers just off the coast. Locally heavy snow totals over a foot are
forecast for the Cascades as well as higher elevations of the Northern
Rockies through Saturday evening. High temperatures will continue to be
much below average across the West this weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday
will be in the 30s for the Northern/Central Rockies and Great Basin, the
40s for the Pacific Northwest and Southern Rockies, 40s and 50s for
northern/central California, and 50s to low 70s for southern California
and the Desert Southwest. In addition, low temperatures around freezing
for lower elevation coastal/valley locations of northern/central
California have prompted Frost and Freeze Advisories as these temperatures
could damage budding spring vegetation. 

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php