Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Mar 14 2025 - 12Z Sun Mar 16 2025

...Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Friday, the
Cascades/Northern Intermountain Region, and Upper Mississippi Valley on
Saturday...

...A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Appalachians on Saturday...

...There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley on Friday and over the Lower
Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast on Saturday...

A front extending from the Central Plains to the Southern Plains will move
eastward to the Lower Great Lakes to the Central Gulf Coast by Sunday.  On
Friday, the storm will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore,
the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning.  The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There is an additional
threat of F2- EF5 tornadoes over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley and Tennessee Valley. Furthermore, there is also an added threat of
severe thunderstorm wind gusts 65 knots or greater and hail two inches or
greater over the region.

On Saturday, as the front moves eastward, showers and severe thunderstorms
will develop over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys
into parts of the Southeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk
(level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Tennessee/Lower
Mississippi Valley and Southeast from Saturday through Sunday morning. 
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There is an
additional threat of F2- EF5 tornadoes, severe thunderstorm wind gusts 65
knots or greater, and hail two inches or greater over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley.

Furthermore, heavy rain will occur over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern Appalachians on Saturday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, Lower Mississippi
Valley, and Southern Appalachians from Saturday through Sunday morning. 
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

In addition, heavy snow will develop over parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley on Saturday. Rain will also fall over parts of the Upper Great
Lakes.

Meanwhile, a front over the Eastern Pacific will move onshore over the
West Coast and inland to the Rockies before dissipating by Saturday
morning. On Friday, the system will produce coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and California.
Heavy snow will develop over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

Moreover, upper-level energy over the Central/Southern Rockies will move
northeastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley by Saturday. The energy
will also produce light snow over parts of the Great Basin, Northern
Intermountain Region, Southwest, and the Rockies on Friday.

 In addition, more upper-level energy will move onshore over the Pacific
Northwest on Saturday. The energy will produce heavy snow over the
Cascades and Northern Intermountain Region, accompanied by coastal rain on
Saturday and Sunday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php