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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0721Z Jun 25, 2022)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 321 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 25 2022 - 12Z Mon Jun 27 2022 ...Monsoonal moisture and an approaching cold front to create the threat of heavy rain and instances of flash flooding over portions of the Southwest, southern Rockies, and central/southern High Plains... ...Stifling heat forecast across the southern Plains and lower/middle Mississippi Valley today, while much above average temperatures begin to build across the Pacific Northwest... A potent cold front trekking across the central and eastern U.S. will be the focus for much of the impactful weather through the beginning of next week. Combined with monsoonal moisture located across the Southwest, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening from northern New Mexico to the Oklahoma Panhandle and immediate vicinity. Heavy rainfall may lead to scattered flash floods, particularly in geographically prone regions and near burn scars. Downpours are once again possible on Sunday as the cold front slowly oozes southward through the southern Rockies, with widespread rainfall totals by Monday forecast to exceed 1 inch across central/northern New Mexico and southern Colorado. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued for both today and Sunday across this region to further highlight the flash flood threat. Showers are expected to linger into Monday throughout Arizona and New Mexico, but should become more scattered in nature to start the workweek. Along the same cold front, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the Midwest to the central Plains today and Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Sunday. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the greatest risks as storms develop within a warm and moist airmass, with an isolated risk of flash flooding not out of the question as well. Scattered pop up thunderstorms will also be found across the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and into the southern/central Appalachians through the end of the weekend. The upper-level pattern over the next few days will feature ridging extending from the south-central U.S. to the Northeast, troughing over the north-central U.S., and a building upper-level ridge along the West Coast. As a result, surface high temperatures are forecast to soar to nearly 20 degrees above average for parts of the West, most notably the Pacific Northwest, while sultry heat and humidity persists across the Deep South and stretches ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Highs across Oregon and Washington are likely to reach well into the 90s between today and Monday, which has prompted Heat Advisories to be issued. High temperatures in the low 100s are forecast across the central valley region of California. For the southern Plains and lower/middle Mississippi Valley today, the combination of heat and humidity will make it feel like it is nearly 110 degrees. Thus, Heat Advisories have been issued from Oklahoma and north-central Texas to the central Gulf Coast. Highs will also surge above average for late-June and into the 90s from the Ohio Valley to northern New England through Sunday. Conversely, well below average temperatures will be located across the central Plains and Rockies underneath thick cloud cover and behind the previously mentioned cold front. Snell Graphics are available at