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Short Range Public Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0800Z Apr 08, 2024)
 
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 12Z Mon Apr 08 2024 - 12Z Wed Apr 10 2024 ...Northern New England remains the best location for clear viewing of the total solar eclipse this afternoon... ...Lingering wet snow across the Northern Plains expected to taper off later today while locally moderate rain moves across the Upper Midwest... ...Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather threat emerging across the Southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday... ...Critical fire danger shifts southward into western Texas by Tuesday... As the long-anticipated total solar eclipse scheduled to take place this afternoon, the weather pattern across the U.S. is entering a transition period from one that consists of a winter storm across the North to heavy rain and severe thunderstorms across the South. The low pressure system that has brought snow, high winds, and severe weather to various locations across the northern and central U.S. will continue to weaken and track northeast across the upper Midwest today, and then move into southern Canada on Tuesday. Lingering wet snow across the Northern Plains is expected to taper off later today while locally moderate rain moves across the Upper Midwest. Monday morning will feature showers and embedded thunderstorms across the Great Lakes down into the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and the lower Mississippi Valley well in advance of the low pressure system and near the trailing cold front. Meanwhile, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is beginning to return to the western Gulf states. Southern Texas will likely wake up to fair conditions this morning but will likely followed by a rapid untimely increase of clouds this morning into the afternoon prior to the arrival of the solar eclipse. In contrast, northern New England remains to be the region where cloud cover will likely be minimized along the path of totality this afternoon as the nor'easter moves farther out into the Atlantic. It appears that other locations in between will have a fair chance of cloud covers at various levels, although locations across Arkansas to the Midwest could see breaks in the clouds or high thin clouds during the time of totality. Monday night into Tuesday will likely see the threat of heavy rain blossoming across the South from eastern Texas/eastern Oklahoma expanding eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley in response to a potent upper trough approaching from the southern Rockies that will interact with the influx of Gulf moisture. A few inches of rain will likely be common from northern Louisiana into southern Arkansas through Wednesday morning with this setup. In addition, severe thunderstorms are also expected to develop within the heavy rain area from Tuesday morning onward into Wednesday morning when a low pressure system is forecast to develop over Texas. The heaviest rains and severe storms should begin to head farther east by Wednesday morning into the Mid-South as the low pressure system intensifies and tracks toward the east-northeast. Meanwhile, moisture from the next Pacific system is forecast to bring the next round of precipitation into the Pacific Northwest by later today and spread into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Much of the Southwest into the Four Corners will remain dry with some gusty winds as a dry cold front passes through. As for fire weather, it appears that the area of Critical Risk of Fire Weather will be confined to western Texas per the Storm Prediction center. Forecast high temperatures will tend to be at or above average and mild to warm over much of the central/eastern U.S. today ahead of the system over the Midwest/Plains. The greatest anomalies will be in the lower Great Lakes vicinity, where temperatures into the 60s and 70s are upwards of 15-20 degrees above normal. The frontal boundary sagging southward and increasing coverage of precipitation chances will bring cooler temperatures from the Tennessee Valley west through the ArkLaTex and into portions of the Southern Plains/Rockies Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast to warm up by 10-15 degrees over the Northern Plains Tuesday following one more chilly day on Monday. An expanding area of warm, above average temperatures will spread inland from California into the Great Basin Tuesday as an upper-level ridge builds in. Kong/Putnam Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php