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Short Range Public Discussion
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 2000Z Sep 20, 2023)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2023 Valid 00Z Thu Sep 21 2023 - 00Z Sat Sep 23 2023 ...Below-normal temperatures expected across much of the western U.S., with widespread precipitation over the northern Intermountain West and Rockies... ...Increasing chance for strong to severe storms and heavy rain over portions of the northern and central Plains on Friday... ...Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain expected for portions of the southern Plains on Thursday... ...Gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf likely for portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic late this week... A deep upper-level low developing over the Northwest today is forecast to sink slowly south over the next day before drifting east later in the week. This system is expected to bring widespread precipitation to the Intermountain West and northern Rockies, with below-normal temperatures spreading across much of the western U.S. A Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of northwestern California and south-central Oregon, where widespread areas of subfreezing temperatures are possible east of the Cascades tonight into Thursday morning. A Red Flag Warning is in effect farther to the southeast, including the northern Sacramento Valley, where gusty winds and low humidity are expected beginning tonight and continuing into Thursday. Over the northern into the central Plains, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to focus near a slow-moving frontal boundary through the period, with the threat for organized heavier precipitation increasing by Friday as the system in the West begins to drift east. Also increasing will be the threat for severe weather, with scattered strong to severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes expected across portions of the central Plains on Friday. Over the southern Plains, an upper level disturbance interacting with a moist airmass along a slow-moving boundary will support showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days, with an increased chance for strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall on Thursday across portions of southern Oklahoma and North Texas into the ArkLaTex region. Damaging winds and hail, along with heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding are possible across this area. In the East, high pressure is forecast to prevail across much of the region through late Friday. The primary exception will be along the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic coasts. This region will likely be impacted by a non-tropical low pressure system that is forecast to develop east of the Florida peninsula within the next day or two. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics as it track north on Friday. Regardless of development, this low is likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf to portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states late this week. Pereira Graphics available at