Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 23 2024 - 00Z Thu Jul 25 2024

...Much above average temperatures to continue across much of the West
into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, while cooler than average
temperatures expected from the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi
Valley...

....Widespread showers and thunderstorms possible from South and East
Texas, across the South and northward along the East Coast...

A strong upper ridge will remain centered across the Southwest and Great
Basin over the next few days, continuing to support much above average
temperatures across much of the West into the Northern Rockies and
Northern Plains. High temperatures across these regions are forecast to be
10 to 15 degrees above average over the next two days, with many regions
seeing highs over 100 degrees F.  Only a few record highs expected across
the West on Tuesday, but a greater chance on Wednesday with records
possible across much of Montana, southern Idaho and eastern Oregon. 
Across large portions of the West into the Northern Plains, this heat wave
will be producing major to extreme heat risks.  However, the first signs
of relief from this heat will be occurring across the Pacific Northwest
into the Northern Great Basin/Northern Rockies Tuesday into Wednesday when
a cold front will be pushing inland form the eastern Pacific.  This will
be the start of a large scale pattern chance for the West which will bring
cooler temperatures to the West by the end of th week into the weekend. 
Before this, however, Excessive Heat warnings, and heat advisories are
affecting over 30 million people.  In addition to the hot temperatures,
the dry weather will also support wild fire conditions across large
portions of the West.

In contrast to the hot and dry weather across much of the West, an
unsettled weather pattern will persist across a large portion of the
nation from the Southern Plains, across the South, Southeast and north
along the eastern Seaboard.  Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
likely in a region of above average moisture values stretching across
these areas.  Much of this region has seen below average precipitation
this summer, with many areas of the South, Southeast, Southern to Central
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic experiencing moderate to extreme
drought conditions.  While it has been dry across these regions, the
potential for very heavy rains in a short period will still pose localized
flash flood risks in this region of active shower and thunderstorms. In
the regions of active showers and thunderstorms, high temperatures will
also be generally below average, with the greatest chance of below average
temperatures across the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php