Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Jul 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jul 15 2026

...Anomalous heat and humidity continue across the northern Plains to the
upper Midwest, spreading into the Northeast by Tuesday...

...Threat of heavy rain gradually abates across the southern Appalachians
to the Carolinas as a heavy rain event emerges across the Hill Country to
the Big Bend regions of Texas...

A strong upper-level high is forecast to build eastward across the
northern tier states toward New England over the next couple of days.  The
anomalous heatwave underneath this high resulted in all-time record high
temperatures across portions of the Great Basin to the northern High
Plains on Sunday.  As the high builds eastward, triple-digit high
temperatures will be widespread across the northern Plains over the next
couple of days, as heat soaring well into the 90s spreads into the upper
Midwest today before reaching the Great Lakes and the Northeast on Tuesday
along with increasing humidity.  Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect
across a large portion of the Great Basin through the northern Plains as
Extreme Heat Watches and Heat Advisories are posted for areas farther east
into New England.  If you will be situated within any of these areas
forecast to experience extreme heat, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks
and limit outdoor activities if possible. A cold front will draw slightly
cooler air eastward from the Pacific Northwest into Montana and North
Dakota over the next couple of days dropping high temperatures into the
90s.

South of this anomalous upper high, a front is forecast to remain nearly
stationary through the southern Plains, the Deep South and the Southeast. 
Upper-level disturbances will then interact with the wavy stationary front
to produce repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across this
corridor of the southern U.S.  Meanwhile, the heavy rain threat from the
southern Appalachians to the Carolinas early today will gradually abate as
drier air filters in from the north.  On the other hand near the western
end of the front, a heavy rain event is forecast to emerge across the Hill
Country to the Big Bend regions of Texas over the next couple of days
where clusters of thunderstorms could mutually amplify the aforementioned
upper-level disturbances to result in additional heavy rainfall.  Please
stay tuned to future updates on this upcoming heavy rain event.

Farther west, an influx of monsoonal moisture will lead to an uptick in
daytime thunderstorms over portions of the Great Basin and Intermountain
West, which could lead to a few instances of flash flooding and severe
weather through at least midweek.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php