Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 PM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 03 2025 - 00Z Sat Jul 05 2025

...Scattered Flash Flooding will be possible across western Texas and New
Mexico and around the Tampa Bay region for Thursday...

...Severe thunderstorms are likely to form over the Dakotas and across the
Northeast tomorrow...

Above average temperatures will be translating eastward across the Plains
to the eastern seaboard by the end of the week...

The overall weather pattern will generally see a mid-level ridge build and
move eastward across the northern Plains and Midwest for tomorrow and then
to the east coast by the weekend. Anomalous warmth across the Midwest and
Plains for Thursday and Friday will then be felt along the Ohio Valley,
Great Lakes, and east coast  for the 4th of July weekend. Then, a trough
will move into the West and bring a surface cold front across the northern
Rockies and Dakotas for tomorrow into Friday, sparking locally strong
thunderstorms across the High Plains and upper Midwest. A frontal boundary
will clear most of the east coast and bring much drier conditions, but the
front will stall across northern Florida and interact with tropical
moisture to produce locally heavy rain, especially around the Sun Coast
and Tampa Bay, and may produce flash flooding. Monsoonal moisture will
bring locally heavy rainfall to parts of the Southwest.

On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain will
continue to occur over parts of Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Eastern
Gulf Coast for Thursday; the QPF forecast calls for another 2-3 inches
possible for tomorrow with locally heavier amounts possible. Main hazards
will be localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Locally heavy rain will
linger over Florida for the 4th of July weekend, but the flooding risk
should lessen.

Monsoonal moisture will continue to stream across the Southwest for
Thursday, with a targeted Slight Risk across portions of West Texas and
New Mexico. High rainfall rates will be promoted by high surface moisture
and sensitive areas could flood that see a couple of inches of rain in a
short time.

On Friday, a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect for the
northern Rockies and the northern Plains as a front provides a source for
potential clusters of thunderstorms atop the ridge. Surface fronts and
general troughing atop the ridge will also support severe potential across
the Dakotas for tomorrow with the main hazards of damaging winds and hail.
The risk for strong storms with damaging wind and hail potential will then
shift eastward on Friday across parts of the Dakotas into the upper
Midwest. The Northeast will see severe thunderstorms on Thursday as a cold
front enters the region. Strong winds and some hail are the most likely
threats.


Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php