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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Latest Discussion - Issued 0716Z Apr 21, 2018)
 
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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

VALID 12Z Sat Apr 21 2018 - 12Z Sun Apr 22 2018



...OK / TX / AR / LA...

There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the ARKLATEX
region, extending a short distance into southeast Oklahoma, and
extending farther down into the Piney Woods of east Texas. All in
all, there are some limiting factors today, including high Flash
Flood Guidance values and a narrow axis of marginally strong
instability. Still, there will be some wetting rain early in the
period during warm advection, followed by a diurnal maximum of
rainfall coverage and intensity this afternoon/evening. It is
during the early onset of the afternoon convection, in particular,
that cell mergers and local bouts of training may contribute to
rain rates nosing toward FFG values.

A Marginal Risk area is drawn back up the Red River to about
Wichita Falls and including southern OK / north TX. There may be a
period of relatively slow cell movement during the morning during
the approach of a jet streak rounding the base of the upper
trough, and this could be followed by other heavy showers in the
afternoon dependent upon destabilization beneath increasingly cold
upper level temperatures. Isolated flash flooding is possible
today.

Burke