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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1849Z Sep 20, 2017)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2017

...VALID 21Z WED SEP 20 2017 - 12Z THU SEP 21 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 SSE BID 20 SSE BID 10 SE PYM 15 ENE PVC 40 ENE CQX 50 E CQX
50 ESE CQX.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SW UIN 15 NE SZL 10 S MKC 20 SSW STJ 35 ENE STJ 10 SW CID
15 E PDC 25 SSE VOK 30 WSW OSH ETB 10 SE BUU RPJ GBG 20 E EOK
45 SW UIN.



1900 UTC UPDATE

NORTHERN MO---FAR EASTERN IA---FAR NORTHWEST IL INTO SOUTHERN WI

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO ADD A MARGINAL RISK AREA FROM NORTHERN MO---NORTHEASTWARD INTO
FAR EASTERN IA---NORTHWEST IL AND SOUTHERN WI. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT STRETCHING CURRENTLY FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY---SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY AFTER 0000 UTC THURSDAY AS THE
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS THAT WERE PUSHING THIS FRONT EASTWARD MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND LEAVE THE FRONT
PARALLEL TO THE INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THE 0000 TO
1200 UTC TIME FRAME TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY
OF THIS FRONT FROM NORTHERN MO---NORTHEASTWARD INTO FAR EASTERN
IA---FAR NW IL AS MOIST SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTERSECTS THIS
FRONT.  THE HI RES GUIDANCE OF THE NSSL WRF---ARW AND NAM CONEST
ARE THE MOST EMPHATIC WITH HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE PRECIP
TOTALS ACROSS THESE AREAS---DEPICTING SOME 2"+ TOTALS.  THESE
SOLUTIONS DO NOT LOOK UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN
EVOLUTION...ALTHOUGH AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN THE NEW DAY 1 QPF
WERE NOT AS HIGH...GENERALLY .50-1"+.  A PERIOD OF SLOW MOVING
CELLS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED RUNOFF
CONDITIONS.

ORAVEC


...INITIAL DISCUSSION...


...JOSE OFFSHORE SERN NEW ENGLAND...

BANDED RAINS ASSOCIATED FROM WITH THE NHC OFFSHORE TRACK OF JOSE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH DAY1. WRAPPED
TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE REGION OFFERS MARGINAL
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES STEMMING FROM ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ON TAP FOR CAPE COD AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD
UPWARDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS NANTUCKET IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
JOSE. THIS MAINTAINS CLOSE WPC CONTINUITY.

SCHICHTEL