Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center

 
 

 

Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   QPF
   PQPF
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/
Warnings

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   QPF
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
   Development
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
   FAQs
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site
 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
 
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1522Z Feb 17, 2025)
 
Version Selection
Versions back from latest:  0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   
 
Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1021 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 17 2025 - 12Z Tue Feb 18 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than five percent.

Gallina


Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 18 2025 - 12Z Wed Feb 19 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

Strengthening southwesterly winds ahead an amplifying upper level
shortwave and an associated cold front are expected to draw deeper
moisture into parts of the Gulf Coast, with PWs climbing to around
1.5 inches. This moisture along with increasing lift and
instability may be sufficient for heavy rainfall rates. Models
offer a modest signal for training storms ahead of a surface low
that is forecast to develop and advance east along the coast
Wednesday morning. This may help support localized heavy rainfall,
with some potential for isolated flash flooding, especially in
urbanized areas.

Pereira

Day 3
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 19 2025 - 12Z Thu Feb 20 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

Surface low developing along the central Gulf Coast on Day 2 will
continue to track east early in the period, before tracking
northeast along the Southeast Coast later in the day. Training
storms, with potentially heavy rainfall rates fueled by deep
moisture (PWs 1.5-1.75 inches) ahead of the wave and along its
trailing cold front, may produce locally heavy amounts and an
isolated flash flooding threat on Wednesday.

Pereira

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt