Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 06 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 06 2024 - 12Z Mon Oct 07 2024

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND THE LOWER KEYS...

A tropical wave or weak and slow-moving disturbance over the Gulf
will drift east into the Florida Peninsula Sunday. Multiple inches
of rain are expected through the day from Tampa south into the
Keys. The heaviest rain is expected Sunday afternoon and evening,
where added instability from diurnal heating will locally increase
rainfall rates. The slow-moving nature of any storms will be the
greatest contributor to flash flooding. FFGs have recovered since
Helene last week, so despite the forecast of 2-4 inches of rain
broadly over the Florida Gulf coast, only isolated flash flooding
is expected at this point.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt