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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 0100Z Nov 21, 2017)
 
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Abbreviations and acronyms used in this product
 
Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
800 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017

...VALID 01Z TUE NOV 21 2017 - 12Z TUE NOV 21 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
70 WNW CEC 50 SW OTH 30 SSE OTH 20 NW SXT 15 SSW SXT 30 SW MFR
35 N O54 25 WSW RDD 40 E O87 15 SSW O87 65 WSW O87.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 NW CEC 50 S OTH 40 WNW SXT 30 WSW SXT 30 SW SXT 30 ENE CEC
35 ESE CEC 30 ENE ACV 30 E ACV 35 ENE O87 O87 20 WNW O87.


...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CA...

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
CA. RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE RAINFALL
AXIS IS PERSISTING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN MOST GUIDANCE WOULD
INDICATE IT SHOULD BE. HAVE SEEN A FEW OBSERVATIONS OF BETWEEN
0.5"-0.7" IN AN HOUR RECENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST HUMBOLDT COUNTY
COAST IN THE IDEAL UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. FOR THIS REASON WILL LEAVE
THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS MAINLY UNCHANGED ALONG THE
NORTHWEST CA INTO SOUTHWEST OR COAST. ISOLATED POCKETS EXCEEDING
0.5" IN AN HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. WITH
THAT SAID...WE SHOULD SEE THE RAINFALL AXIS SHIFT NORTH AT AN
INCREASING PACE...WITH RATES ALSO GENERALLY ON A DECLINING TREND
THROUGH THE EVENING. FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA THROUGH 06Z...ESPECIALLY IN BURN SCAR AREAS. ANTICIPATE
ANY FLOODING THREAT TO END BY 06Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
AND RAINFALL RATES DECREASE. ITS NOT UNTIL AFTER 12Z THAT RATES
PICK BACK UP ACROSS WESTERN WA. 
 
CHENARD