Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1111 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Feb 13 2026 - 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE OZARK PLATEAU...

1600Z Update...

The 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance still largely support the idea
of a Marginal Risk being maintained across the southern Plains
involving convective initiation that will take place this evening
and evolve in basically two rounds overnight. Initial shortwave
energy coupled with strengthening warm air advection/moisture
transport across western to northwest TX this evening will favor at
least semi-organized convection here, with elevated convection then
evolving near and poleward of a front across central to northeast
OK and adjacent areas of the Ozark Plateau through early Saturday
morning. The morning guidance shows a southwest low-level jet of 30
to 40 kts facilitating an environment conducive for heavy showers
and thunderstorms that may have some localized training potential
involving central to northeast OK and perhaps parts of southeast KS
and southwest MO overnight. Stronger height falls/shortwave energy
will eject out across west TX by early Saturday morning which
coupled with increasing low-level moisture and modest instability
with MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg should support renewed
convective development here. Overall, the heaviest rains will
likely tend to be over areas of central to northeast OK this period
with some 2 to 4 inch totals possible where any cell- training
occurs. However, antecedent conditions are dry which should be able
to generally handle these rains. That said, some spotty 1 to 2
inch/hour rainfall rates are possible which coupled with some cell-
training may foster some localized and mainly urban runoff
problems. The Marginal Risk was ever so slightly expanded a bit
more over western TX and also into the Ozark Plateau.

Orrison

Previous discussion...

A deep upper-level trough will advance eastward across the
Southwest today. Diffluence and vorticity will spread over the
Southern Plains tonight, where showers and thunderstorms are
expected to proliferate along surface boundaries stemming from an
area of surface low pressure. Instability will be modest 500-700
J/Kg, but moisture will be quite anomalous, (PWATs 4-5 stndv & 99th
percentile) due to the arrival of subtropical Pacific moisture. A
mitigating factor will be that antecedent conditions are mostly dry
(moderate to severe drought + low RSM) especially on the western
end of the risk area.

Kebede


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 14 2026 - 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE ARKLATEX
TO THE MID-SOUTH...

A mid-latitude cyclone develops and deepens beneath a PVA over the
Southern/Central Plains Friday night into Saturday. This system
will combine two separate moisture regimes: one from the
subtropical Pacific and one from the Gulf of Mexico to produce
scattered thunderstorms and heavy rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains, Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and Tennessee/Ohio
Valleys.

The slight and marginal risk areas were expanded from what was
depicted on our previous issuance. This was based on a broader qpf
footprint signal in the latest guidance. Some showers and
thunderstorms from today's excessive rainfall threat will shift
into Missouri and the Midwest today, while the main threat develops
within the warm sector to the south.

A line of convection is expected to develop over the ArkLaTex this
evening and propagate eastward through the Lower Mississippi
Valley, where favorable jet dynamics (strong LLJ 30-40kts and
strong upper level divergence) could produce efficient rain rates.
PWATs will also be 2-3 stndv above normal (90th percentile) from
eastern Texas to northeastern Arkansas, where the current slight
risk is in place. It's worth noting that the Euro has a slightly
more southerly focused QPF footprint than the GFS and our current
slight risk area depict.

Kebede


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 15 2026 - 12Z Mon Feb 16 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...

The inherited marginal risk area over parts of the Mid-Atlantic
(central Virginia) down to the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle, was mostly unchanged. Contours were
expanded north into central Virginia due in part to an increased
signal in the GFS, but also due to clustering between several Euro,
Canadian and GEFS ensemble members.

Another marginal area was considered for parts of the northern and
central California coast, but was ultimately nixed in coordination
with local offices due to a lack of favorable moisture, forcing and
instability. All of which become more pronounced over Southern
California on by day 4.

Kebede


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt
Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt