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Winter Weather Forecast Discussion
 
(Caution: Version displayed is not the latest version. - Issued 1928Z Apr 27, 2018)
 
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Geographic Boundaries -  Map 1: Color  Black/White       Map 2: Color  Black/White


PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2018

VALID 00Z SAT APR 28 2018 - 00Z TUE MAY 01 2018

NORTHERN ROCKIES...

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY WILL EVOLVE INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
LOW WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PIVOTING AROUND WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF OR/WA/ID SUNDAY
AND UT/ID/MY/WY MONDAY. THE THERMAL PROFILE IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE 12Z GFS/NAM AND 00Z ECMWF WITH LOCATIONS/TOTALS ADJUSTED BASED
ON THE DOWNSCALED 5KM MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE BLEND FROM WPC.


NEW YORK ADIRONDACKS...

A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AND
THEN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST,
FALLING HEIGHTS/TEMPS ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
FOR THE NEW YORK ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS. A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS POST-FRONTAL
NORTHWEST WINDS PROVIDE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER WINDWARD FACING TERRAIN,
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 3000 FEET. DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
MID-LEVEL LOW ALLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS/NAM FOR THE THERMAL
PROFILES.

THE PROBABILITY OF ICING GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES IS LESS THAN 10
PERCENT FOR DAY 1 THROUGH 3.

JACKSON