MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0020
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
125 AM EDT WED APR 01 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED......EASTERN OK... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 010524Z - 010924Z
 
SUMMARY...INCREASING MOISTURE ON A MODEST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL FEED ONGOING CONVECTION. RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTION...CELLS MERGERS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN AN STRONGLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL OK. AS THE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE OVER
SOUTHWEST KS AND THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE...IT WILL BEGIN
INGESTING HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR (AS A 20 KNOT 850 MB FLOW
SUPPLIES 1.25 PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE REGION). CORFIDI
VECTORS SLOW WITH TIME ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK... ALLOWING
FOR CELL MERGERS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.

HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE LATEST HRRR...RAP AND 00Z
NAM CONEST) IS NOT CAPTURING THE ONGOING CONVECTION WELL...AND
ONLY THE LATEST SSEO MEAN HAS A SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. WITH
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND MID LEVEL LIFT INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...THE THREAT FOR LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36669679 36549584 35949538 35069545 34489537 
            34129563 33909631 33959687 34429734 35029751 
            35419756 35859743 35949743 35899744 36299732