MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0151
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
535 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 290935Z - 291530Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IN PARTS OF EAST TX THROUGH MID MORNING. 

DISCUSSION...A LINE WAS MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE LINE WILL BE
MOVING INTO AN AREA WHERE MLCAPES WERE ON THE ORDER OF 2500 TO
3500 J/KG AND THERE IS A STEADY FEED OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF.  

ONE REGION OF CONCERN WILL BE IN REGIONS WHERE THE SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW INTERSECTS THE APPROACHING LINE OF CONVECTION.  RADAR
SHOWED THAT THIS PROCESS WAS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TX...AND THIS AREA COULD EASILY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN PER HOUR.  

SEVERAL OF THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICTED A SECOND AREA OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING
OVER NORTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVE VORT
MAX.  WHILE THE HI RES MODELS WERE STRUGGLING WITH PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNTS...THE 00Z WRF/ARW APPEARED TO DO THE BEST AT CAPTURING
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE MCV.  

THESE STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
PER HOUR WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 HOURS BEFORE THE
RAINFALL RATES TAPER OFF.

BANN

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35329466 33369474 30959414 30199452 28849563 
            29289633 30929607 33119707 34619657