MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0240
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
227 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/WRN CAROLINAS INTO S-CNTRL VIRGINIA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 010625Z - 011215Z
 
SUMMARY...OVERRUNNING OF DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS A COASTAL FRONT WILL 

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.  DEEP MOISTURE MOVING
TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE FLOW AND
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. 

DISCUSSION...STEADY...LARGELY STRATIFORM RAINFALL...CONTINUES TO
FALL FROM WRN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO WRN NORTH CAROLINA AND S-CNTRL
VIRGINIA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA AS SEEN ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VAD WIND
PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE ROUGHLY 20 KTS OF FLOW
CENTERED NEAR 850 MB WHICH CONTINUES TO OVERRUN A STATIONARY FRONT
LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE WITH A MAX IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF ROUGHLY 2 INCHES SEEN ON THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT OVER THE
NC/SC BORDER NEAR THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND...DUAL-POL ESTIMATES 1
HR RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1 IN/HR BETWEEN GREENVILLE AND
CHARLOTTE...SLOWLY SPREADING NORTHWARD.

INSTABILITY IS GREATEST ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WHILE REMAINING
VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE THREAT AREA...BUT LOW TOPPED / WARM RAIN
PROCESSES ARE IN PLACE WITH A STEADY MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAUSING THE GROUND TO BECOME SATURATED. IT IS EXPECTED
THAT THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM/MOIST AIR FROM THE COAST WILL
FEED INTO THE STRATIFORM REGION FOR A LONG DURATION RAIN EVENT
WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 3-5 INCHES
BY 12Z AS SEEN IN A MAJORITY OF THE LATEST 00Z HI-RES GUIDANCE.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36928127 37817932 37937850 37727802 37247791 36867825
            36407860 35637890 35027943 34768004 34618123 34318174
            34378245 34978281 36038233 36928127