MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0241
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1046 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 200245Z - 200845Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOOD RISK WILL EXPAND INTO NORTHERN AR AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 02Z CONTINUE TO HAVE A ROBUST LINE OF SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK. THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS LINE HAS RECENTLY ORIENTED ITSELF IN A WAY THAT IS
FAVORABLE FOR QUICKER FORWARD PROPAGATION OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE TO
GENERALLY REMAIN PROGRESSIVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS IN CHECK...ALTHOUGH A QUICK 1-2" OF
RAINFALL WITH THIS LINE IS STILL LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
RAINFALL OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD PROBABLY JUST RESULT IN MAINLY
MINOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

HOWEVER ALSO SEEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SLOWER MOVING STORMS
FORM IN THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE
LINE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AR INTO SOUTHERN MO. AS THE PROGRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE LINE MERGES WITH THESE INITIAL CELLS...ANTICIPATE AN
ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD RISK COULD DEVELOP...WITH LOCALIZED 2-5"
AMOUNTS. THUS WHILE A MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN MO WILL PROBABLY NOT
EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ISSUES DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LINE...ISOLATED AREAS OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

CHENARD

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   38639189 38529124 37989086 36489094 36299154
            36199302 36189416 36269455 36849462 37259437
            37889361