Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0278
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
617 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Areas affected...portions of west Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 162215Z - 170300Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential continues with storms
exiting New Mexico currently.  This risk should persist through at
least sunset.

Discussion...Slow-moving convection initially in eastern New
Mexico has grown upscale and picked up forward speed over the past
hour or so - with aid from downward transport of slightly stronger
mid-level flow across the southern half of the discussion area. 
Neverthelesss, a few spots of ~2 inch/hr rain rates were being
estimated per MRMS particularly with merging cells on the southern
end of the complex just southeast of Hobbs. The environment
downstream of this supportive of robust convective development,
with ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE and increasing moisture with eastward
extent continuing to support occasional heavy rainfall.  Areas of
cell mergers are likely to remain the most susceptible to rain
rates exceeding 2 inches/hr, which should threaten one-hour FFG
threshold on a spotty basis especially in areas near/southwest of
Midland, TX.  Farther north, FFGs are substantially lower (near
Lubbock - around 1 inch/hr), also suggesting a flash flood threat
there despite forward propagation with the linear segment
approaching that area.

Current convective trends should remain mostly diurnally driven,
with a weakening trend expected after sunset.  The only exception
might be with cells on the southern end of the complex, that might
persist long enough to tap into more robust instability southwest
of a line from San Angelo to Junction.  In this area, flash flood
potential will likely remain tied to areas of cell mergers given
somewhat faster mid-level steering flow in that area.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EWX...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34410233 34230086 31990035 30459981 30100070
            31570300 32910337 34160320