MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0281
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1018 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN IL...WESTERN/CENTRAL IN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 101415Z - 101915Z

SUMMARY...A TRAINING AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
AREA OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN IL...AND WILL BE SPREADING EAST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A STRONG MCV
AND ACCOMPANYING PV ANOMALY ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER. A WESTERLY 850
MB JET OF 30 TO 40 KTS IS TRANSPORTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO
1000 J/KG AND PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES.

THE NOSE OF BETTER INSTABILITY WITH THE AIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL EDGE EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND GIVEN THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION ALIGNING ITSELF GENERALLY
WNW/ESE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE 850/300 MB LAYER FLOW...THERE WILL
BE A FAVORABLE SET-UP FOR TRAINING CONVECTION.

RAINFALL RATES OF AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES/HR ARE EXPECTED...AND WITH
THE TRAINING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ADDITIONAL STORM TOTALS OF 3 TO
4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
HRRR/HRRRX MODEL OUTPUT WHICH IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE AXIS.
THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER WET
OVERALL...AND SO FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40798870 40758777 40608685 40098510 39498509
            39408609 39638749 40018895 40368946 40648925