MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0286
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
519 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 020918Z - 021518Z
 
SUMMARY...REDEVELOPING CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS
RECENTLY IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAINS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA AS AMPLIFYING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS MOVES DEEPER MOISTURE
ACROSS A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST. 
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS...WITH THE 07 UTC RAP SHOWING PWS TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY 13
UTC.  ALSO...MUCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  MEANWHILE...LARGE SCALE LIFT AFFORDED
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPING/TRAINING CELLS.  HI-RES GUIDANCE
MEMBERS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES THROUGH
15 UTC...WITH 40 KM NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES FROM THE 00Z SSEO
MEAN INDICATING A 30-50 PERCENT OF 3-HOUR ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING
3 INCHES ACROSS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.  
THESE AMOUNTS WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF HOUSTON -- AN AREA IMPACTED BY HEAVY AMOUNTS AND FLASH FLOODING
THE PREVIOUS EVENING.  THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
BELOW A 0.25 INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA -- SUGGESTING ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL CAUSE RUNOFF CONCERNS.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31889514 31859466 31189405 29809383 29579424 
            29379474 28719588 29219638 30869586