MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0287
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
653 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHERN TX....SOUTHERN OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 021045Z - 021400Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS NEAR THE RED
RIVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SOME FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ALONG WITH A FEW
OVERSHOOTING TOPS AS SEEN WITH THE GOES-OTD ALGORITHM IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL SCALE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN TEXAS
THIS MORNING...AND IS INTERACTING WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY POOLED ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG WITH
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS TRAVERSING IT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT
OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ADVANCES
GRADUALLY ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT WHILE ALSO TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF ABOUT 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF UNINHIBITED SBCAPE OVER
NORTH TEXAS.

RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES/HR ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER THAT IS IN PLACE AND RESULTING
EFFICIENT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE CELLS WILL FAVOR HEAVIER TOTALS IN GENERAL THROUGH MID-MORNING
THAT MAY REACH 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE HRRR AND HRRRP GUIDANCE BOTH
REFLECT THIS SIGNAL. GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...THERE
WILL CERTAINLY BE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF CONCERNS AND POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   34899677 34779565 34079554 33589577 33249643 
            32959736 33159770 34109763 34519736