MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0289
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
941 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 021330Z - 021800Z
 
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THERE MAY BE SOME FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE
WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME GRADUAL WARMING
OF THE CONVECTIVE TOPS JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER OVER SOUTHERN
OK...BUT NEW CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING FARTHER TO
THE WEST AND NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OK.

HIRES MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY...ALBEIT
RATHER MODEST WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...FOR THERE
TO BE SOME SUSTAINABILITY TO THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PART OF OK. SOME GRADUAL EXPANSION OF THE ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE TOO WITH AN UPTICK IN DIABATIC HEATING.

THE RAINFALL RATES SHOULD BE LOCALLY QUITE HEAVY AND MAY APPROACH
2 INCHES/HR WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES...AND THIS WILL
BE FACILITATED BY THE BROADER PWAT ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH VALUES.

GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE REGION...AND AN EXPECTED 2
TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LOCALLY THROUGH 18Z...THERE
WILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...AMA...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36659868 36259769 35529713 35009615 34229606 
            33969665 34159826 34409947 34889997 35810001 
            36529972