MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0292
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
100 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 021700Z - 022100Z
 
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME FLASH FLOODING GIVEN INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES AND WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...A VERY WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION ZONE IS SETTING UP
ACROSS CENTRAL TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING
GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS THE STATE AND WITH A MID LEVEL LOW CENTER
DOWN OVER THE BIG BEND AREA. 

STRONG FORCING ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE WELL-DEVELOPED MCS
THAT HAS PIVOTED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY.
HOWEVER...THE MCS HAS HAD SUCH STRONG CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THAT
IT APPEARS THAT A CLOSED 700 MB CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED OVER
CENTRAL TX AS DENOTED IN AREA VWPS. CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS CIRCULATION AND IS LIFTING UP INTO
NORTHERN TX SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE INHERENTLY WARM CORE
NATURE OF THIS CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR ENHANCED RAINFALL
RATES WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION WITHIN THE STRONGER
CONVECTIVE CORES.

PWATS ARE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AS PER THE BLENDED-TPW
PRODUCT AND WITH STILL AT LEAST A MODEST DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE AND STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT...RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN ENHANCED WITH RATES OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDING 2 INCHES/HR.

HIRES MODEL OUTPUT INCLUDING THE 12Z ARW AND 12Z NMMB ALONG WITH
THE HRRR SUGGEST ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 4
INCHES THROUGH 21Z. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING
GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33709596 33359501 33129458 32759423 32709489 
            32619560 32269611 31739652 32229699 32519757 
            32749800 33109802 33569751