MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0293
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
202 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 021750Z - 022130Z
 
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE OH RIVER ALONG A COLD FRONT SETTLING
SOUTHEAST.

DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY COOLING CONVECTIVE
TOPS OVER SOUTHERN IND ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS SLOWLY
SETTLING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. ALREADY SEEING A FEW
OVERSHOOTING TOPS AS PER THE GOES-OTD ALGORITHM AND THESE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR PRODUCING ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY EXCEED 2
INCHES/HR. 

THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS PWATS AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH COUPLED WITH SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
WILL HELP TO PRODUCE HEAVIER RAINS THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION
EXPANDS IN COVERAGE. THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSING UNDER THE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN EXITING 90 KT+ 250 MB JET STREAK AND
THIS DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON DURING THE TIME OF MAX DIABATIC HEATING.

THE HIRES MODELS ARE LIKELY A BIT UNDERDONE WITH THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL GIVEN THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROFILES AND SUPPORT
ALOFT. CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS THINKING.

DESPITE THE RELATIVELY HIGH FFG VALUES...THE INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CELLS ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   39328476 38928473 38388568 38038667 37888725 
            37958769 37998813 38238805 38798690 39208573