MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0294
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 021820Z - 022200Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
TX...WITH ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL TX WHICH IS HELPING TO
WRAP DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER EASTERN TX UP AROUND THE
EASTERN AND NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE LOW CENTER.

A WELL-DEFINED TROWAL FEATURE IS SEEN FOCUSING HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AND THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE DEEP MOISTURE IS PROMOTING PWATS THAT ARE NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND
THIS IS IS PROMOTING A HIGH LEVEL OF RAINFALL EFFICIENCY THROUGH
THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WHICH IS RESULTING IN HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES. THE RATES HAVE BEEN PERSISTENTLY AS HIGH AS 1 TO 2
INCHES/HR OVER THE FEW HOURS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THERE SHOULD TEND TO BE SOME
WEAKENING OF THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN AND A TENDENCY
FOR RAINFALL RATES TO WEAKEN A BIT AS DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER HELPS TO DETACH THE
AFOREMENTIONED INFLOW OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

REGARDLESS...ADDITIONAL RAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON OF 2 TO 4
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED AND THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY GENERATE
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33519773 32919805 32689791 32379739 32259703 
            32019671 31469652 31459688 31389742 30909818 
            30819902 31279980 31950007 32649972 33119910 
            33379849