MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0296
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...S/SE OKLAHOMA...W ARKANSAS...EXT N CENT TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 022005Z - 030105Z
 
SUMMARY...NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF TROWAL LIKELY TO SLOW/PIVOT
ACROSS S CENTRAL OK WITH REPEAT/MERGING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
CONVECTION OVER SATURATED SOILS.

DISCUSSION...WV/VIS LOOP INDICATES A LOBE OF VORTICITY FROM THE
MAIN CENTER IS LIFTING NWARD ACROSS NE TX ATTM WITH DEVELOPING
CONVECTION WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND EFFECTIVE COMMA HEAD
ACROSS S CENTRAL OK/N CENTRAL TX ATTM.  AS THE S/W LOBE LIFTS
NNW...A PIVOT POINT ALONG THE RED RIVER WILL REMAIN A FOCUS OF
PERSISTENT SHOWERS WITH A MAIN FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BAND THAT
WILL FEED TOWARD THE PIVOT WITH ENHANCED MERGES EXPECTED. IT IS AT
THIS PIVOT THAT FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS GREATEST...DUE TO MERGERS
BUT ALSO LOWERED FFG AND SATURATED SOILS FROM THIS MORNING'S
CONVECTION AS WELL AS OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. 

MODERATE INSOLATION THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE
OK HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP TO SUPPORT THE
DEFORMATION ZONE/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION
COOLING IN IR TO -60C GIVEN THIS WEAK 500-750 J/KG MLCAPES. WITH
TIME ADDITIONAL BANDS SUCH AS THE ONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE RED
RIVER WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND GENERALLY MERGE ALONG THE SLOWLY
NWARD DRIFTING MAIN BAND... EXPANDING AN AREA OF ENHANCED MERGERS
FOR FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS CENTRAL OK POTENTIALLY AS FAR E AS W
AR. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35389686 35279421 34539359 34019361 33669391 
            33859494 33829623 33439672 33189732 33289773 
            33779832 34649798