MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0297
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
524 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TEXAS AND COASTAL REGIONS TO DEEP S TEXAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 022124Z - 030124Z
 
SUMMARY...BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT BACKBUILDING AND
SLOW CELL PROPAGATION WHILE PROVIDING EXCELLENT MST FLUX FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT

DISCUSSION...WV LOOP SHOWS A N-S ARCHED BAND PROGRESSING EASTWARD
IN E TX FROM MAIN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX...ALONG THIS BAND VORT
CENTERS NEAR CRS IN NE TX LIFTING NWARD AND NEAR BKS IN DEEP S TX
MOVING ENE.  THIS ALIGNMENT SUPPORTS A SECONDARY LINE OF MST
CONVERGENCE THAT HAS INITIATED CONVECTION ACROSS SE TX ADVANCING
EASTWARD BUT ALSO SUPPORTS BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OF TX TO SUPPORT INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN MST CONVERGENCE BUT ALSO SUPPORT SWWARD BACKBUILDING
WITH LIMITED PROPAGATION EXCEPT ON ANY COLD POOL GENERATION THAT
MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS GIVEN DEEP MST ENVIRONMENT.  UPDRAFTS MAY
ALSO RECEIVE INCREASED CONVERGENCE DUE TO FRICTION AT THE COASTAL
ZONES AS WELL.  DEEPEST MOISTURE AXIS IS FURTHER EAST WITH INITIAL
CONNECTIVE LINE ACROSS SE TX THOUGH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.75" AND
SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES IN THE 2-3"/HR RANGE.  FLASH
FLOODING IS LIKELY GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.  THIS SETUP
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY A FAIRLY CONSISTENT HRRR V2 AND HRRR RUNS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31129538 30969477 30729378 29889387 29559429 
            29019506 28079673 27159728 26589720 26519750 
            26549773 26699801 26929804 27529804 27809785 
            28019761 28589663 28989625 29259584 29609592 
            29899583 30609554