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WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0299
(Issued at 414 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0299

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0299
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
414 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY FROM IL TO WV

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 132013Z - 140115Z

SUMMARY...RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES IN 30 TO 90 MINUTES MAY
PRODUCE SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS OVER LOCATIONS WITH
SATURATED SOILS FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IL INTO WESTERN WV
THROUGH 01Z.

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN LAKE ERIE
INTO EAST-CENTRAL MO...MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AT ROUGHLY
20-25 KT. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED MLCAPE VALUES AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY RANGED FROM 1500-2500 J/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN
REMAINING BETWEEN SOUTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN OH. RECENT REGIONAL
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM 20Z...EXTENDING FROM NEAR CMH TO JUST SOUTH OF
IND...WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM WUNDERGROUND.COM INDICATING
RAINFALL RATES OF NEAR 1 INCH IN A 20-30 MINUTE TIME FRAME IN THE
VICINITY OF I-70 TO THE EAST OF IND.

SHORT TERM FORECASTS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE A
STEADY MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND
WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY HAVE LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TO
AN INCH OR LESS IN 1 HOUR. SHORT TERM RAP FORECASTS ALSO SHOW SOME
POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT DUE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
100 KT UPPER LEVEL JET CORE...LOCATED OVER NORTHERN OH...COMING
INTO PLAY BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF
1-2 INCHES IN 90 MINUTES OR LESS EXPECTED ANYWHERE BETWEEN
SOUTHERN IL INTO WESTERN WV...WITH OVERLAP OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOWER FFG/SATURATED SOILS. SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 01Z...AT WHICH POINT...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING MAY CAUSE WEAKENING OF CONVECTION...AT LEAST OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MPD THREAT AREA.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...PAH...PBZ...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40138243 39878095 39528049 39208074 38948124
            38338255 38008384 37628580 37578757 37648858
            38108922 38538929 38818879 39158743 39898447
           


Last Updated: 414 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018
 

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-May-2015 19:29:02 GMT