MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0404
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
600 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN CO...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 012155Z - 020300Z
 
SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY VERY INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES WILL FOSTER ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN NM
AND SOUTHERN CO WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND A RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMICS FOR CONVECTION.
MUCH OF THE FORCING FOR THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF
 TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS AND NEARBY PROXIMITY OF A LOWER
LEVEL VORT CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST UT AND SOUTHWEST CO.

CONVECTION WILL HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR UPSIDE
DEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS LEADING UP
TO 00Z GIVEN ADDITIONAL SOLAR INSOLATION/INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE
OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE LATEST CIRA LAYERED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHERN CO AND NM AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
RATES WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED TO LOCALLY BE OVER 2
INCHES/HR NEAR SANTE FE.

THE 20Z HRRR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
THROUGH EARLY EVENING WHICH APPEARS TO BE UNDERDONE GIVEN PWATS
RUNNING 1 TO 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...CONCENTRATED
MOISTURE ALOFT...AND SLOW CELL MOTION. EXPECT AMOUNTS TO LOCALLY
EXCEED MODEL GUIDANCE WITH AMOUNTS OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES
WHERE STRONGER CORES DEVELOP. THIS WILL CERTAINLY DRIVE THE RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING OVER AND ADJACENT AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND
INCLUDING DRY WASHES.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37980587 37960450 37550362 36690305 35600332 
            35160349 34200411 33620461 33490516 33710563 
            34270587 34830641 35060714 35480781 36270793 
            37030787 37700715