MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0750
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
752 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWESTERN TN...NORTHEAST AR...BOOTHEEL OF
MO...EXT SOUTHERN KY

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 281151Z - 281530Z

SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION WITH RATES UP TO
2"/HR MAY POSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONCERN.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 6.9UM WV CHANNEL DEPICTS A DESCENDING LOBE OF
NORTHERN STREAM TROF DIGGING ACROSS E MO INTO S IL...WHILE
COLLOCATED STRONG 2H JET STREAK ACCELERATING AWAY FROM HARVEY. 
LOW LEVEL HAS RESPONDED WITH MOISTURE RETURN UP THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY INTERSECTING WITH SELY FLOW ACROSS AL/N GA THAT BECOMES
GENERALLY CONFLUENT IN WEAK PRESSURE TROF ACROSS WESTERN TN. 
BLENDED TPWS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING WITH TOTALS NOW
REACHING 1.6-1.75" THOUGH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PER CIRA
LAYERED TPW EXISTS OVER CENTRAL TN.

SOLID MST CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE RETURN FLOW AT THE SFC PRESSURE
TROF AS ACTIVATED DEEP CONVECTION CENTERED IN N CENTRAL TN THOUGH
PERIPHERAL DEVELOPMENT EXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS NE AR.  MEAN
STEERING FLOW SUGGESTS NORTHEASTWARD ADVECTION
HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STRONGLY SUGGESTS
UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY.  CURRENT 10.3UM IR DEPICTS A
CLASSIC FLASH FLOODING WEDGE SIGNATURE DEVELOPING IN
CARROLL/HENDERSON COUNTIES.  GIVEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND SLOW
CELL MOTIONS...RATES OF 2"/HR ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED 3-4" TOTALS.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   36928520 36038582 35289105 35759141 36558793
            36908639