MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0788
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
508 PM EST MON DEC 05 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AL...WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...FAR
SOUTHWEST GA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 052208Z - 060300Z
 
SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING. 
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE
GULF COAST REGION AT 21Z.  THE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WAS
CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES PER
THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM KLIX AND SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE
WATERS.  VAD WIND PROFILERS FROM KLIX TO KMOB AND KTAE HAD BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND WIND SPEEDS ACCELERATED TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HELPING TO DRAW THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT UP AND OVER THE FRONT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM 2130Z SHOWED COLDEST CLOUD TOPS LINED UP FROM SANTA
ROSA COUNTY FL THROUGH COVINGTON AND COFFEE COUNTIES AL WHERE
SATELLITE HIGH DENSITY WINDS INDICATED THE BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. 

ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DURING THE PRECEDING 36
HOURS IS INCREASING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THIS REGION.  OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. MORE RECENTLY...AREA RADARS HAVE SHOWN SOME PLACES
RECEIVING RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR THIS AFTERNOON.  

THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING CELLS AND POSSIBILITY OF
TRAINING INTRODUCES A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN SPITE OF HIGH 1-
AND 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.  RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE NOT
BEEN CAPTURING THE RAINFALL RATES...WHILE THE ARW WAS DOING A
BETTER JOB IN THAT RESPECT

BANN

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   32208490 30738490 30248627 30348805 30998762