MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0284
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1123 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 290320Z - 290920Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST ACROSS SOUTH TX OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.  FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DESCRIPTION...KDFX RADAR SHOWS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
RAINFALL RATES OF UP 2-3 INCHES/HR DRIFTING EAST FROM THE MIDDLE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SOUTH TX ALONG AND WEST OF I-35.  THIS
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTH TX THIS
EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS LOW LEVEL FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
MID 70S..WITH THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATING PWS OF
1.7-1.9 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.  THE 01Z RAP SHOWS PWS
INCREASING TO AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS THE REGION.  THE RAP ALSO SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3000-4000
J/KG PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THROUGH 10Z...THE 01Z
HRRR SHOWS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 3-4 INCHES
WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   28999782 28829652 27959724 27259752 26919798
            26819848 26769924 27489962 28200021 28749896