MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0351
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1110 PM EDT TUE JUN 14 2016
 
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 150310Z - 150610Z
 
SUMMARY...CONVECTION ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL JET COULD PRODUCE
A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IL INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO
SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHWEST IL...IN RESPONSE SYNOTPIC SCALE ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORT APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET (20 TO 30
KNOTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI PER REGIONAL
VWP)...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVER NEAR 1.75 INCHES
(WHICH IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID JUNE).

THE CONVECTION IS ABOUT TO LEAVE THE EASTERN EDGE OF MPD 350...ON
THE EDGE OF THE BEST INSTABILITY AXIS. THE AIRMASS BECOMES LESS
UNSTABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI...WHERE THE 00Z KGRB
SOUNDINGS SHOWED LITTLE INSTABILITY. THE BEST THRUST OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN IL...WHERE
MUCAPE VALUES ARE STILL IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...THE MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTH IS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH A 2.20 PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AT KDVN.

THE SHORT TERM THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IA...SOUTHERN WI INTO NORTHERN IL...WHERE
THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CAN SUPPORT THE
THREAT. FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WI... INSTABILITY DOES NOT
APPEAR AS THOUGH IT CAN SUSTAIN AN ORGANIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE LATEST HRRR/EXPERIMENTAL HRRR/12Z ARW FOR
AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND MESONET
OBSERVATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT HAVE BORNE THIS OUT.
THE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS COULD SUSTAIN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THE
EARLY  MORNING HOURS.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   44559037 44408979 44058904 43728877 43418850 
            43278838 42738809 42418799 42038810 41648848 
            41498903 41488905 41488919 41468951 41499003 
            41629039 41909061 42539067 42739077 43569089 
            44039098 44109097 44329110 44409110 44509081