MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0564...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
906 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016
 
CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN HEADER

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN TX...SOUTHWESTERN LA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 140100Z - 140700Z
 
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TX OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERN LA
OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FIRE AND SETTLE
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AS ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR A LOW LEVEL
CENTER INTERACTS WITH THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE THAT IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PWS OF 2.4-2.5
INCHES POOLING NEAR THIS LOW LEVEL CENTER.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS -- WHILE DIFFERING ON THE
DETAILS...THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 23 UTC
OPERATIONAL AND PARALLEL RUNS OF THE HRRR...SHOWS LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST COUNTIES.  MEANWHILE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS MAY ALSO STRETCH FURTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG AN AXIS ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING
BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND ANOTHER LOW FURTHER TO THE
NORTH OVER NORTHERN LA.  ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN LA...MOST OF THE
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RELATIVE LULL IN THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
UNTIL LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (AROUND 6 UTC) AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AMPLIFIES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LA...ONCE AGAIN RAISING THE
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY AMOUNTS/FLASH FLOODING ACROSS AREAS
ALREADY INUNDATED WITH HISTORIC AMOUNTS.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   31619305 31199237 30069229 29629252 29619314 
            29719367 29549430 29069528 29849513 30479371