MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0579
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
750 PM EDT THU JUL 27 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 272350Z - 280350Z

SUMMARY...HIGH RAINFALL EFFICIENCY AND SLOW CELL MOTIONS POSE
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

DISCUSSION...23Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010 MB LOW IN NORTH
CENTRAL OK WITH STATIONARY FRONT LAID OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OF KS BEFORE ANGLING NE INTO SW MO.  ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO BUILD UP
WITH MLCAPES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE GIVEN LOW 90S SFC T AND
LOW 70S TDS.  THE MOISTURE AXIS HOWEVER HAS BEEN LAGGING THE SFC
BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE 925/850MB TROF AXIS.  NEARLY
OPPOSING LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME AND WEAKENED CAP HAS ALLOWED FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM WLD TO PPF AND FURTHER INDICATIONS OF
PERCOLATING TCU INTO SW MO.  THE AREA OF CONCERN IS ALSO WITHIN
WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AT THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF
ANTICYCLONE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL ASCENT/FORCING FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. 

THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WOULD SUGGEST SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION
OF LINE...THE UNCHARACTERISTIC DIRECTION OF BEST MOISTURE
FLUX/CONVERGENCE SUPPORTS NORTHWARD BACKBUILDING.  AS SUCH CELLS
ARE LIKELY TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT.  THE
OVERALL PROFILE AND MOISTURE FLUX SUPPORTS HIGHLY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION WITH TPWS OVER 2.25"...EXPECT WARM CLOUD
PROCESS RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5"/HR PER HOUR.  WHILE LIMITING FACTOR
IS DRY GROUND CONDITIONS DEPICTED BY FFG VALUES OVER 3"/3HRS...THE
RATES PER HOUR AND LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3-4" MAY EXCEED THESE
VALUES POSING AN FLASH FLOOD THREAT. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   37719537 37469332 36809300 36599349 36549444
            36709591 36859640 37289667 37529642