Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0175
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
622 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Areas affected...Portions of Far Northern TX...South-Central to
Northeast OK...Far Southeast KS...Far Northwest AR...Southwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261020Z - 261530Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms with some instances of
cell-training may result in areas of flash flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery shows a broken QLCS
advancing generally east-northeast across portions of the Red
River Valley, with somewhat more disorganized activity noted
farther up to the northeast across northeast OK and southeast KS.

A shortwave trough continues to cross the region while interacting
with a moderately unstable airmass characterized by MUCAPE values
of 2000 to 2500+ J/kg, and with a persistently moist
south-southwest low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts. Given the level of
forcing and instability that is in place, the convective activity
should persist through the morning hours and may even locally
expand in coverage.

Some cell-training will be possible as the convection evolves
close to the Red River Valley and up through eastern OK over the
next few hours. Rainfall rates are expected to reach as high as
1.5 to 2 inches/hour given the level of moisture transport and
instability focusing across the region. The latest HRRR guidance
has been trending wetter and strongly supports the idea of the
convection becoming oriented more parallel to the deeper layer
southwest steering flow. The HRRR does favor some potential for
localized 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals across eastern OK going
through late this morning given the cell-training concerns. This
may result in some instances of flash flooding as a result across
this region.

The other concern this morning is also farther northeast up across
far southeast KS and into southwest MO where heavy rainfall over
the last 24 hours has led to notably moist soil conditions and
elevated streamflows at least locally. Some additional broken
clusters of convection are expected here with the arrival of the
aforementioned shortwave energy, with an additional 2 to 3 inches
of rain possible by late morning. Some instances of flash flooding
will be possible here as a result.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...EAX...FWD...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38479407 38079297 36629322 35049410 33859524
            33159699 33219861 33599872 34259776 35109704
            35949631 36519582 37299536 38119463