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< Day 1 Outlook Valid Through 12Z Today Day 2 Outlook >
 
WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
 
Updated: 0831 UTC Sun Jan 22, 2017
Valid: 12 UTC Jan 22, 2017 - 12 UTC Jan 23, 2017
 
Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
 
Forecast Discussion
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 AM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

...VALID 12Z SUN JAN 22 2017 - 12Z MON JAN 23 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 W 45J 35 SSE SSC 10 SE HXD 30 ESE SSI CRG 35 NNW GNV
30 S TLH 15 E DTS NPA 40 E HBG 25 WNW MSL 15 ESE MQY 25 W 1A6
15 SE BKW 25 W SHD 30 W CJR OMH 20 NNW BUY 25 W 45J.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
90 SW STS 55 SW STS 10 S STS 15 E CCR 45 SW MAE 40 E PRB
20 SW BFL 20 SSE BFL 20 S PTV 20 NNW VIS 10 ENE MAE 20 ENE MOD
BAB 25 NNE CIC 30 ENE OVE 50 SSW TVL 35 NNE VIS 30 W IYK EDW
30 SW DAG 20 WNW NXP 15 E TRM 20 SSW NJK 90 SSE MMTJ 130 S MMTJ
180 SSW NRS 205 SSW NRS.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
4A9 30 ENE DNN 25 WNW AVL 10 SSE TNB 10 SW AKH 15 SE GRD
10 NE HQU 20 N VDI 25 S SVN SSI 15 WNW JAX 15 ESE TLH 20 WSW MAI
20 E GZH 45 NNW GZH 10 E TCL 20 SSW 3A1 4A9.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
95 W MRY 60 WSW SFO 15 WSW SFO RHV 10 SE PRB 20 W SDB
15 SSE PMD 25 NNE RIV 15 NW PSP 20 SW PSP CZZ 60 S MMTJ
95 SSW NRS 115 S NUC.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
65 SSW LPC 15 SSW XVW 20 NNW SBA 25 WSW SDB 20 N EMT 20 NNE RAL
15 ENE RIV 15 SSE RIV 25 W NFG 15 ESE NUC.


...CALIFORNIA...
...MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SANTA BARBARA TO LOS
ANGELES...

THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED TODAY ALONG
THE CALIFORNIA COAST FROM MONTEREY TO SAN DIEGO...BUT ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. MULTIPLE HI-RES MODELS PRODUCE HOURLY RAIN
RATES GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF SANTA
BARBARA...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT INTENSE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
850-700 MB LAYER WILL COMBINE WITH THE TERRAIN TO BOOST THOSE
HOURLY RATES ABOVE 1.00 INCH FROM MIDDAY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
GEFS 850-700 MB ONSHORE FLOW WIND SPEED ANOMALIES ARE MORE GREATLY
FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE SOUTHERN
SIERRAS TODAY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.00 INCH AGAIN
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AREAL AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OF 2 TO
4 INCHES IS A STRONG BET ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL FALL MORE HEAVILY AND MORE RAPIDLY IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WHERE DOWNSCALING OF THE QPF TAKES THE PREDICTED
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 OR EVEN 6 INCHES IN SPOTS.

GIVEN RECENT STORM SYSTEMS IN RAPID SUCCESSION...THE AREA MAY BE
MORE PRONE TO RAPID RUNOFF. IN SANTA BARBARA AND 
VENTURA COUNTIES THE NATIONAL WATER MODEL...FORCED BY GFS
QPF...PRODUCES A TRANSITION FROM MUCH BELOW NORMAL STREAM FLOW TO
HIGH FLOW IN ONLY A 3 HOUR WINDOW.


...SOUTHEAST STATES...

A BROAD MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS INDICATED HERE...AS
A DEEP AND GRADUALLY PROGRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM DRIVES LARGE AREAS
OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAINFALL. IT WAS NOT OBVIOUS WHERE TO
EMBED A HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND A SLIGHT RISK AREA. BY MID
MORNING THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTION NEAR THE GULF COAST MAY HAVE
PLAYED OUT...AND WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TOWARD MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND FRACTURED MODES OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AT LOWER
LATITUDES...AND STEADY RAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LESSER
INSTABILITY FARTHER NORTH. THE LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
EXIST TO THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY UP INTO THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE
FFG REMAINS ON THE HIGHER SIDE TO THE SOUTH DESPITE RECENT
RAINFALL. ULTIMATELY...THE BALANCE OF THESE FACTORS LED TO
ISSUANCE OF A BROAD SLIGHT RISK...AND ONE THAT WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE TRIMMED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THE AREA OF
PERHAPS GREATEST CONCERN WILL BE SOUTHERN ALABAMA / GEORGIA...AND
FAR NORTHERN FLORIDA...WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL SATURDAY...AND WHERE
A SECOND ROUND WAS OCCURRING THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING BRIEF BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER NORTH...THE 00Z GUIDANCE TRENDED
DEEPER AND STRONGER WITH THE SYNOPTIC LOW AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
NORTHEAST ALABAMA...SETTING UP A STRONG DEFORMATION AREA WHERE
MODERATE RAINFALL AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY
LEAD TO HEAVY AMOUNTS OVER A BIT LONGER DURATION. OBSERVATIONS OF
INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE AND IN-BANK RISES ON STREAMS WERE REPORTED
BY THE LOCAL OFFICE IN HUNTSVILLE.

BURKE

 

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