Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
The Weather Prediction Center



Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Facebook Follow the Weather Prediction Center on Twitter
NCEP Quarterly Newsletter
WPC Home
Analyses and Forecasts
   National High & Low
   WPC Discussions
   Surface Analysis
   Days ½-2½ CONUS
   Days 3-7 CONUS
   Days 4-8 Alaska
   Flood Outlook
   Winter Weather
   Storm Summaries
   Heat Index
   Tropical Products
   Daily Weather Map
   GIS Products
Current Watches/

Satellite and Radar Imagery
  GOES-East Satellite
  GOES-West Satellite
  National Radar
Product Archive
WPC Verification
   Medium Range
   Model Diagnostics
   Event Reviews
   Winter Weather
International Desks
Development and Training
WPC Overview
   About the WPC
   WPC History
   Other Sites
Meteorological Calculators
Contact Us
   About Our Site is the U.S. Government's official web portal to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services.
< Day 1 Outlook Day 3 Outlook >
WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance at a point
Updated: 0826 UTC Mon Jun 25, 2018
Valid: 12 UTC Jun 26, 2018 - 12 UTC Jun 27, 2018
Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast
Forecast Discussion
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
428 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018
Day 2
Valid 12Z Tue Jun 26 2018 - 12Z Wed Jun 27 2018 


...Wisconsin/Illinois to Missouri and then Eastward into Ohio 
The risk of heavy to excessive rainfall spreads eastward as a 
closed mid-level low and associated surface low pressure and front 
translates eastward. The biggest forecast problem continues to 
revolve around where any on-going convection, remnant MCV(s) or 
outflow boundaries will be at the beginning of the period...and 
how any of those factors impact eventual threat of heavy rainfall. 
While these concern are common in any Day 2 forecast, confidence 
is simply too low to make many refinements on mesoscale details 
given how much the models have been struggling to depict the 
systems evolution. Maintained the broad Slight Risk across much of 
the Midwest where low flash flood guidance is found. 

A lingering front provides a focus for tropical moisture to 
converge over the Carolinas and the possibility for coastal 
cyclogenesis near the Southeast U.S. coast.  The model signal has 
become more consistent over the possibility of cyclogenesis 
along/near the coast which results in a period of heavy rainfall 
through a combination of on-shore flow underneath increasingly 
favorable dynamics aloft before the system heads out to sea.  The 
ECMWF looked to be too strong with the system--something that was 
true with the 24/12Z runs.  The Canadian also looked to be 
over-developed.  But the signal is strong enough to warrant a 
marginal risk at this time.  


Day 2 threat area:

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Weather Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
Weather Prediction Center Web Team
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities