Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
426 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025
Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jul 02 2025 - 12Z Thu Jul 03 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

...Lower Mid Atlantic and Southeast...

Pre-frontal convection will likely be ongoing across the Mid
Atlantic and Southeastern Seaboard Wednesday morning, with
additional line segments upstream as well prior to the passage of
the surface front and upper trough axis later in the day. Along the
axis of 2.25"+ TPWs, by early afternoon (17-18Z), both the HREF
and RRFS ensembles show an uptick in >2"/hr rainfall rates across
southeast VA and northeast NC, particularly the RRFS (25-50%).
Available high-res CAM guidance (NAM Nest, FV3, and RRFS) all show
pockets of 3-5+ inch totals within the Slight Risk area. Elsewhere
within the Marginal Risk area stretching through much of the
Southeast, anticipate the flash flood threat to be more
isolated/localized as 0-6 km bulk shear values remain aob 20kt
(implying more pulse/less organized convection).

...West Texas into parts of the Southwest...
Continued moist, southeasterly low-level flow (850-700 moisture
transport/flux standardized anomalies +3 to +4 again from West TX
into NM) will set the stage for numerous showers and storms again,
especially during peak heating hours Wed afternoon and evening.
Strong low-level inflow is in some areas double the mean 850-300 mb
flow, thus resulting in Corfidi vectors opposing the low-level
wind. This will likely lead to cell training, especially where the
southeasterly low-level flow leads to more upslope enhancement.
Right now, the guidance (including the CAMs that go out through
Day 2) show considerable spread with the heavier QPF. Therefore for
now will maintain a more isolated (Marginal) flash flood risk, as
later shifts will evaluate once the period (Wed-Wed night) gets
within the remainder of the high-res CAM windows.

Hurley

Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt